I am long also, but respectfully disagree with your assessment of share price. Simply, short interest is extremely high in this stock as we write, but more importantly institutional interest is quite low in ONVO. Once this company has a product on the market and value is established at launch there will be a frenzy to get in from institutions and retail investors. Shorts will get buried alive! The story is too great (transformational technology) and up to this point honestly has been "pie in the sky"! Remember, it spiked to over $13 on just speculation / news. I think you will see a share price spike in the $25 - $30 range by December 2014 after launch, then retreating back to the $18 - $25 range in 1Q-2015. As sales are established and KOL's / customers report results, 2015 will be a banner year. No thanks, I am not taking you up on a dinner bet!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I see this happening within 3 years! If you think about the milestones this company has achieved in only 2 years. Doesn't matter as company will have been bought out in 3 - 5 years! Buyout share price will be multiple hundreds of dollars… my guess would be $350 to $450 per share with approx. 90 million shares outstanding at time of buyout. That would value the company at $40 billion. Just my opinion… Fun guess!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It never ceases to amaze me, the new-comers who show up on this board to bash this stock! They don't realize the "old hands on board" have been here for 2 years, some of us maybe more following ONVO. You all know who you are!!! We know dilution and we're not afraid of it to fund the growth that ONVO will experience in the coming year. We all know and have confidence in management, as they have delivered on the strategy and met the deadlines. We're on the last lap, headed to the finish line on November 2014, and are not about to sell shares based on the new-comer's speech of doom and gloom regarding dilution of shares. Sorry for my rant!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Agreed… I was speculating in purchasing the stock of this company two years ago when the share price was $3.00 and it was listed on OTC!!! It's now a solid investment for a long term play. May take another 2 years, but the investment will pay off much larger. In fact, my "speculative play" is ahead by about $4.00 a share as I write this!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Patience is a virtue! We will look back at the 4th Quarter of 2014 with amazing delight in 2 years. ONVO is a unique company with a one of a kind product about to launch and more products to come in the next few years. I am so grateful to have discovered this company while it's still in its infancy. My plan is simple: Accumulate as many shares as possible below $10 and hold. Most of us just are not patient enough to wait for the meteoric rise in share price!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Tekmira must verify if their drug works! For obvious ethical reasons, they can't inject humans with the Ebola virus in a trial. TKMR has to figure out how to run a small trial through the distribution, administering, monitoring, reporting (what they called a Regulatory Pathway) for those that are given the drug. It has to be done in a controlled environment, or as well controlled as possible under the circumstances. Outcomes can be very subjective to external factors as we have seen with the Doctor treated in Atlanta. He probably wouldn't have survived if left in African. Supplemental support care is a major issue. I am guessing they have a couple more weeks to figure out how to run a small trial on those that are already infected. Probably administer to 100 to 200 people, maybe a few more. If results are promising, then you will see a much larger distribution of the drug to other countries for distribution and stockpile. The deadline is fast approaching IMO.
Tekmira would be foolish to pass up the opportunity to verify if their drug works! They can't inject humans with the Ebola virus in a Phase 2 or 3 trial. So, TKMR has to figure out how distribution, administer and monitoring, reporting (Regulatory Pathway) for those that are given the drug. They want a controlled environment, or as well controlled as possible under the circumstances, as the outcome can be very subjective to external factors…. support care being a major issue. I am guessing they have about 2 more weeks to figure out how to run a small trial on those that are already infected. Probably administer to 100 to 300 people at most. If results are promising, then you will see a much larger distribution of the drug to Africa and many orders to stockpile. Deadline is fast approaching IMO.
Sell….Set stop loss at 15.00 and call it a day. You win some, you lose some. Just have to know how much you can afford to lose.
Symptoms88, I am in total agreement with you on this one! I am holding 3500 shares… a little bit under water now bought at $19.35. But the upside gain is worth the risk to me if and when Tekmira releases the drug for use. I held through the CC and the fall to $16.00. Didn't panic at all the noise out there. Key was dd on what was happening in Africa with the spread of Ebola and the between the lines in the CC. Will hold for another few weeks or unless price craters below 15.00.
The drug works! The animal studies in primates prove it. That's why the TKM-E was approved for Phase 1 testing in humans months ago. Yes, I understand Phase 1 testing is for safety only and not efficacy! However, you have to account for the likelihood that it could be successful in humans. Ethically, you cannot inject volunteers with the Ebola virus to verify the drug's efficacy, so a company has to be prepared to test during an outbreak… which we now have! It's a matter of time (weeks) before this drug will be used in a clinical type study on Ebola patients. I do not know the longterm outcome of using the drug on humans, but those people afflicted will probably die unless given the TKM-E and good supportive care. The key now is where they can get the supportive care… in an Africa country with good healthcare or a developed country with great healthcare. Tekmira wants a very controlled environment once they start testing their drug. Once they are certain of a controlled environment the drug will be released, whether its in the U.S. or another country.
Remember that CC last week! Tekmira management was totally incompetent with answers to questions…. you would think they would have been better prepared! Well, in the next few days or weeks we will all see why they couldn't or would not answer questions in a sensible manner. No doubt Tekmira has first responsibility to the U.S. DofD. I believe they are mass producing TKM-Ebola as I write for the U.S. Government. Once adequate supplies are in hand, drug will be made available to African countries. IMO.
Granted at this stage, TKMR is not a good short-term investment!!! Not here to debate or re-live what happened on Wednesday. Today will be worst, but what really going on in the background. This drug will be used in Africa. There will be little financial revenue short-term if it works, but it has to be tested.
Give this 2 - 3 weeks and TKMR-Ebola will be distributed (donated or sold) to African countries where people are infected with Ebola. The issue is how to do a controlled Phase III study on subjects that are extremely ill and contagious. I agree the circumstances are right for accelerated approval and the humanitarian thing to do is make the drug available. Tekmira needs to know if their drug works in humans. Nows their chance and they don't want to fail. If it does, governments will dump money into them. African countries maybe third world but have lots of cash same as developed countries.! Frankly, you have to ask why is Tekmira developing an Ebola agent? The market has taken the comments from the CEO and clearly spun them into a shot-term negative. Dosages needed are relatively small…
After today's CC stumbles, its still possible to savage a positive result. If Tekmira steps up conversations with WHO, FDA, African Governments etc. and announces a way around the "regulatory approvals" in the next few days we could see a sharp reversal! Opinions please.
There are manufacturing houses in the US set up to produce these vaccines in large quantities if needed. You are not talking millions of doses. Probably 25,000 doses for those already with Ebola or under quarantine. The manufacturers are already on notice…. Check it out, easy to find. Poor management in a crisis situation is what we just saw.
Clearly, this gentleman should not be the voice of Tekmira!!! At least not in a situation such as the one we just witnessed. Nothing has changed with the efficacy (in primates for clarity), nor the safety profile (in fact, the single dosage is approved by FDA). You have a unique opportunity to provide your product to a limited number of patients suffering from Ebola. The various governmental agencies and NGO's (WHO and FDA) have cleared numerous ethical huddles to enable you to administer your drug. They are only requiring you present information on distribution, monitoring and reporting. The people infected with Ebola want a cure if there is one or they are going to die. Finally, whether you believe it or not, TKMR-Ebola is either going to work or fail miserably…. no in between. Tekmira can't change that! Geez… no balls, no glory!
Dumbest CEO I ever heard!!! You have a drug that everyone wants you to use. There's many ways to say the same thing. But the company's CEO said Wednesday that the "regulatory framework" for giving the drug to African patients is not clear. Hell… We all know that. That's what you and your staff are paid to maneuver around. Should have said, "We are working with the WHO, governments in African countries and our FDA to clear a pathway to help people in Africa suffering with Ebola. Our efforts may take weeks or more, but if granted approval we will assist with TKMR-Ebola." It's over… Hope I can savage a few bucks! IRS here comes another loss.
The most important factor this afternoon will be an announcement of a Phase III trial for TKMR-Ebola starting in West Africa in the very near future. Earnings will be a minor factor IMO. Everyone wants to know how will this drug be used to treat individuals infected with Ebola. Anything less than a major effort (drug distribution, monitoring and reporting) to assist in the Ebola crisis, will be seen as a lack of management's commitment to the drug and its efficacy, will send shares sharply lower.
Very unfortunate that more people are dying every day! They really need assistance to control this outbreak.