Ditto; both good posts. I am probably going to get back in again soon. I was a little wary of the various uncertainties for the stock and the economy. The sky is much clearer now and the future looks good for ORB. Still question the availability of Taurus engines beyond the 25 or so committed to ORB but I'm confident the parties will work a deal out ...or ORB can simply contract for LV's with SpaceX, right? clam
Could be. I'd like to see the 'glitch' resolved and I'm still waiting for a solid analysis of the earnings fundamentals going forward. At my age I have decided, finally, to be more cautious with my investments. How do you guys see the earnings & cashflow for the next few years? P/E? I am cautiously optimistic on the sidelines.
On the plus side, this gives the Cygnus (or Cyngus?) team a good opportunity to work through a situation together with NASA looking over their shoulder. Successful resolution will leave everyone involved stronger. We're in a marathon, not a sprint. I think they can do it.
Pretty good explanation about the close proximity GPS system in the comments to this article: http://news.yahoo.com/cygnus-arrival-iss-delayed-least-2-days-nasa-153122977.html
I should add that the chart shows a convincing "golden cross" in late 2012 that was confirmed by a pullback and kiss off the 200 in Jan 2013. I'm talking about the 50 day moving average VS the 200 day. The golden cross is a strong chart formation showing momentum in the right direction. Pull up a 5 yr chart and select 50 and 200 moving average overlays. See if you can see the formations mentioned above. You can easily google the formation names for more on them. I am just an amateur on this stuff. (PS: picked 5 doz nice oysters on Wed after the launch, shot 90 on Thurs and going fishing in an hour ...life is good out here in retirement land.)
Anyone know if there are plans to make Cygnus into a manned transporter? (I know it is not designed to be recoverable at present. PS: where is SpaceX in this regard?
I looked at the chart and comments posted on Market Pulse recently and I dont see the 4 yr formation as a "cup n handle" rather just several unsuccessful attempts to breakthrough $19.50 area. But the formation I do see is an inverse "head n shoulders" with LS at 12 in Fall 2011, head approx 11 around May 2012 , RS around 13 in Fall 2012 and a neckline at around $15. That would predict a runup of about $4 (distance from head to neck) once the RS is achieved. That formation recently played out in the run from $15 to $19.
Now that the Antares leg of the stool succeeded and we have broken resistance to the $20's we are poised for clear sailing to the $28 area (meaning no prior intervening pivot points). IMO the remaining stool legs are: successful Cygnus demo mission completion and strong forward looking fundamentals. (I may jump back in on the next short-term pullback.)
I would welcome thoughts from the Amigos and others on the fundamental picture: meaning revenue and profit growth over the next few years. And are there any impending R&D or capex plans that would spoil the cashflow picture? I have not seen any full blown stock analysis articles on ORB on Seeking Alpha or elsewhere. That's it from clamland.