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ITT Educational Services Inc. Message Board

cland03 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2013 8:41 AM Member since: Apr 8, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Numbers are out

    by ziggy030859 Jul 25, 2013 7:43 AM
    cland03 cland03 Jul 25, 2013 8:41 AM Flag

    I agree. That 7.5% increase is huge and it is what everyone has been waiting for! They will definitely have to explain the drop in persistence and avg revenue (both the lowest I have ever seen since following these guys), which no doubt led to the revenue & EPS miss. My guess is the opp scholarships are cutting into avg revenue and large graduating class caused the drop in persistence.

  • cland03 cland03 Jul 10, 2013 9:28 PM Flag

    Congrats longs. If anyone deserved some good news/press it is APOL. Enjoy your gap up!

  • Reply to

    QII Revenue

    by cland03 Jul 9, 2013 1:50 AM
    cland03 cland03 Jul 10, 2013 9:23 PM Flag

    So last night I noticed my revenue estimate of $257M is for QIII not QII. QII is actually $273M. I took a lot of profit off the table today because I couldn't really see a scenario where they can hit $273M. I think they will beat EPS and show stabilization of starts but I don't know if that will be enough with a potential revenue miss. I have made way too much money to risk it. I am still a big fan of ESI long term and I'm holding a little in case I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong and we see the epic squeeze that seems to be all but inevitable.

  • cland03 by cland03 Jul 9, 2013 1:50 AM Flag

    My guess is they will come in at $260M beating current estimates of $257M. My assumptions are 70% persistence rate (company stated to expect -1%-1.5% reduction in next two quarters), starts of 15,698 (flat YOY, very realistic given recent trend), and avg revenue per student of $4,450 (company est -4% YOY remainder of the year). Therefore; $260M = ((61,039*.7)+15,698))*$4,450.

    I can't wait to watch a little supply and demand at work when shorts try and cover their 9M shares from a float of 14m.

  • Reply to

    :-)

    by miz2013zou Jun 26, 2013 8:34 PM
    cland03 cland03 Jul 3, 2013 1:56 AM Flag

    The majority of people that follow the for profits will tell you enrollment starts are the lifeblood of these companies. They drive revenue and profitability. And thanks in part to the opportunity scholarship and lower comps (only have to beat 15K from 2012) on July 25th you will see YOY growth in starts. I believe that will start the covering in earnest. I can't wait to watch you and all of you short buddies fight over the 14 mil shares that are available. Good luck! :)

  • Reply to

    Anyone following this one...

    by txjur46 May 23, 2013 2:32 PM
    cland03 cland03 Jul 3, 2013 1:01 AM Flag

    I recently started following these guys a little. To answer your question I would say yes. In QI they reported an all in cost of R381,347 per kg and in June they stated they would bring it down to R361,000 per kg in QII. At last glance the price of gold was around R400,000 per kg. Not a huge margin by any stretch but a margin nonetheless although I'm sure I'm oversimplifying it.

  • Reply to

    Learn from DV, ESI is $10 now....going down

    by shares245 Apr 25, 2013 1:02 AM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 25, 2013 9:33 AM Flag

    Good call shares. EPS beat $.05 and rev beat of $10.72 Mil. And we are out of the gates up 9%...bring on the squeeze!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ESI effectively trading at cash

    by thedeathrace Mar 7, 2013 5:25 PM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 12, 2013 11:39 PM Flag

    I agree. A quick DCF valuation using the avg analyst EPS estimate of $3.72 and a growth rate of 5.8% for 5 years and 2% (GDP) after that discounted at 12% will get you an intrinsic value of about $44. Almost 70% margin of safety!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We will see positive growth in enrollment starts in the next 6 months (maybe even sooner). Go back and review any of the last few conference calls or even the presentation at Credit Suisse. Modany has consistently stated the enrollment challenges over the last few years have been with converting the initial inquiry flow into enrollment start, not with initial demand itself. So they piloted the Opportunity Scholarship at 24 campuses and in the first 4 weeks these campuses finished 250-300 basis points higher than the non-pilot group. The enrollment decreases were only half as steep in these pilot schools as compared to the non-pilot schools. So they immediately rolled it out to 101 more campuses and expect to roll it out to the rest by end of the year. Go to their website and you will see Opportunity Scholarship is all over the place like a rash. Once they start converting more of their inquiries, look out. This will drive enrollments up, which will immediately drive earnings and revenue growth. Add considering how heavily shorted this is right now...that is a recipe for a HUGE squeeze.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Junk heading to $10 again?

    by shares245 Apr 12, 2013 9:57 AM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 12, 2013 10:38 PM Flag

    Again? The mid 90's was the last time this stock saw $10. I hope you enjoyed the 11% gain this week as much as I did.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ignore the Paper Tigers!!!

    by flintlockcapital Apr 8, 2013 10:32 PM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 11, 2013 12:34 AM Flag

    I'm pretty sure he's talking about the pullback a week ago or so, not in 2012. Shareholder lawsuits are pretty predictable for companies that shed ~80% of their value. If you think the company is so horrible and will fall apart very soon why are you holding?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cland03 cland03 Apr 11, 2013 12:13 AM Flag

    You were not alone. Short interest went down about $400K shares and that was before the FSLR squeeze. More covering will follow IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today buyers,are tomorrow bag holders...

    by getintoh20 Apr 10, 2013 12:46 PM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 10, 2013 10:39 PM Flag

    With tons of companies trading at crazy multiples out there you decide to add to your short position on one that has already lost over 50% of it's value in the last year. Interesting.

  • Reply to

    target raised to $34 by deustche banck

    by joe_cramer_booyaah Apr 1, 2013 10:29 AM
    cland03 cland03 Apr 8, 2013 10:11 PM Flag

    I agree with your take on the shorts. It seems like there would be a better/easier target out there. I too have a ton of respect for them and their ability to manipulate. But I also know at some point the party will end and 9 mil shares (or close to it) will have to be covered. I am hopeful the opportunity scholarships with quickly stabilize the starts and maybe even drive some growth. If this happens this easily could be a 3 bagger IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ESI
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