the reason for a drop of 75% is not the issue- the fact that we need 150% to get back to highs is the issue. That wont be easy in this market regardless of execution
I understand the concern of late. No nvax holder likes what is happening and I know by your posts you are not a dumb guy. But cmon with this example. It is circular in nature in terms of the argument and is said in 1000 words what can be said in 100. We get it, the debt resulted in shorting. That sums it up- under 10 words. Does it mean we are going to 0? Does it mean we are going bankrupt? Does it mean the co is toast long term? To quote your own example, the consequences are " making the shares unattractive to new investorsand possibility limiting the company's ability to obtain new financing if necessary". So lets address those concerns.
a- unattractive to new investors
While buyers jumping in sooner than later would help, performance at some point becomes the ultimate point of emphasis. Positive p3 data confirms our RSV vaccine gets approved for multiple indications. There will be NO doubt aside from pure fools trying to stir the pot. At that point- do u still think the debt matters? No. The product is 100% derisked and is getting to market.
b- The company's ability to obtain new financing
Nvax now has around 600 million in cash and cash substitutes. To be clear- the co will never need to raise money ever again. So that risk is not applicable.
So aside from new investors being scared- whats the problem?
I'm still in and don't plan on selling- I just think its important that people stop hanging on to a single catalyst like its 2015. It could be a while. And the sector drag generally is more important than anything we do here specifically. Fundamentals are footnotes in this joke of a market run by altos and etfs. And i love the science here, but always important to be objective and IMO plan for the worst case. If u do you can stomach the pain.
All you guys saying once RSV hits the market blah blah- please realize that sentiment matters more than sales and valuation. Gild absolutely crushed it again and is now RED despite being at 52wk lows at the time of the ER beat. No one cares about valuation. Bio is a no touch and thats scary. Co specifics mean nothing
id rather go bankrupt and try to go alone for the huge payout I did not waste the time and opportunity to make a a hundred grand I wasted it to make 7 figures
at this rate a buyout would not even get us back to highs with a large buyout premium. Thats not something to be excited about ive waited 4 years here 15 will not make this all worth it
we would likely be down a similar amount anyway the small bios are getting hammered. ETFS are getting smoked in bio and the drag is heavy on individual names. This will cont to take place as its getting risky to short small bios at these levels with buyout risk so they will focus on the etfs to avoid buyout risk
yes they did- but 1 fund liquidating on a fairly low volume name like this let alone a couple would be enough to cause this type of action for a couple weeks. I saw it with nvax when an outside director was being forced out and his sales over time were totally controlling the action and resulted in low volume but constant selling.
not true- large funds usually try to liquidate slowly so that they dont tip the market off to the fact that liquidation is taking place. Have seen it many times. Even if the trial continues but is not bad data this market will interpret that to mean that data is not going to knock it out of the park and we will open down 30%. Not a good situation right now in this market.
read the last week of posts regarding the recent transasction and you will answer your own question
Curious to here of any responses from IR about the recent concerns here. Thanks
Adam F is giving a good review of bio these days bc he is realizing that everyone abandoning the sector is not good for his livelyhood. When everyone was watching he liked being the negative voice of reason/contrarian but now with everyone turning away from bio he wants to keep eyes on the sector. He is a clown
stock isnt moving at all- shows you that the sector narrative as a whole is more important than the individual performance of co's right now. That type of ignorance in markets right now has to be respected or you will get hurt being a pure fundamentals guy.
i agree long term this has a lot of potential and nothing has changed. But there is risk at the commercial level too dont discount that. No one really knows how to put together sales projections for this market. There will be heavy scrutiny following the commercial launch
MGMT here is coy and acts like they are gild mgmt or somehow don't have to cater to individual shareholders. Trials are expensive in our case but the last offering was more than enough to get us to market but mgmt is like a spoiled child and didn't want to run the company in an every remotely tight way budget wise so they got the F you money here to have flexibility at the expense of shareholder value. They had plenty of money prior to the last raise to get RSV to market and then use expected revenues to develop FLU. This was a way to secure finances for a worst case scenario and run the company regardless of how the launch goes. Anyone that believes this raise was to secure a partner is lying to themselves.
ibb is no doubt playing a role in the action here as well as other bios. But nvax has been trading dirty now for weeks. WE saw it on op ex week when one day it literally stayed at 6.99 all day trying to set it up for the pin. This stock is dirty with a lot of wallstreet forces involved. The stock and the company are two different things people need to understand that. The recent capital raise still blows my mind and is another example of how nvax plays the wallstreet game to operate on a budget that is far looser than it should be. There is no reason to raise these funds for development of our pipe when we are entering a "5 to 8 billion dollar market with no competition" in a year.
1 year is a lifetime in this market no one will be stepping in front of this train for a commercial launch a year for now you can bet on that.