why do you think Apple will take a hit soon? Competition from W10?
I've long thought Apple products were overpriced, but they keep selling and selling - even to Chinese, who I thought would be more value conscious consumers. It seems to me once Apple gets some competition with the phone, they have a problem. They'll continue to have good income from eco-system (esp music sales), but the big margins on phones will gradually erode as phone sales erode.
The marketing on W10 devices will be interesting - what do they advertise, and to whom? So many moving parts to W10 - so much innovation - hard to know where to start. I hope MSFT does better with advertising on W10 then they've done in the past with other MSFT products.
Bay area tech press will predictably slam anything from MSFT - they're all Apple/Google devotees - no credibility. MSFT will have to go straight to consumers and sell directly - get users using - showing others what they can do with W10, then W10 will spread by word-of-mouth, supplemented by MSFT marketing.
A tough, dynamic, competitive sector - Nokia earnings will be very lumpy for the near future; we'll see contract wins, charges, R&D expenses, etc etc etc.
Tactical defeats and victories. When the overall strategy starts to look like a losing proposition, then I sell. When it doesn't look like management can execute the strategy, then I sell. Until then, buckle your seatbelt.
I am away, poor internet access, so I won't be posting much - this is my 2 cents for now.
Apple iPhone vs. Samsung/Android - well, you're both wrong - this fall, it's going to be all about Windows Phones. They will have W10, and the latest/best Intel chip. Made by MSFT at former Nokia facilities, with the latest Nokia/MSFT bells and whistles. It's going to be fun to watch the phone market get turned upside down...
MSFT has the money to take extraordinary steps to work to make Spartan security as good as possible, I'm guessing because they're going to advertise/emphasize security of Windows and MSFT products, because they see security as an important competitive advantage.
Increased market share in Spartan is, as you say, money in the bank to MSFT, money not going to MSFT competitors.
It's possible, maybe probable, MSFT will make security a major selling point - there is a market segment out there that will buy based solely on good security.
Too many companies need good access to good location - MSFT, car companies, UPS, Facebook, many others. I've said before - I think we'll see sale to a consortium, and members each contribute, and each retain access.
Maybe we'll see residuals to Nokia, in addition to the sale price? That's possible. lots of ways to structure the deal. I don't think you'll see a bidding war, but you'll see HERE go for a good price. We can argue what "good" means.....
If you buy anything based on what you read here, you're flipping a coin.
By the way - I don't pump - I give recommendations to help other "average" investors.
Being down 10% is nothing - normal variance in a long term hold. Being down 10% is a buying opportunity.
Do what you want, but I take exception to dumping on me when I'm just trying to help out the next guy.
Apple does not have a 20+MP camera, and I don't believe Samsung has one either (they have 16MP?). As far as I know, only Nokis/Windows phones have 20+MP cameras. Where did this company get that level of camera technology? Wow...
Apparently great minds think alike...and that means you've turned away from the dark side, and have become a Democrat...(ha ha, I know that's not going to happen, but I know there is good in you....). (That was from "Star Wars", if you're not familiar...). (Just making a small joke).
I did not have a good feel for RFMD - just couldn't get my head around it.
Intel was up (37), then back down (30), now slowly up, but it will keep going up 2015 and 2016, heading to well over $50 (or more? one can dream!), and a decent dividend to boot. I was in on Intel at 23, more at 28. Did very well on some 30 and 32 options, in more options (LEAPs_ at 40 and up, 2016 and 2017. I don't do many options (certainly no straddles, etc), but at this point I'm playing with the house's money on the options.
I think all three horsemen - Nokia, Intel, MSFT, have room to run in the next 2+ years. All deserve a place in most portfolios.
The impact of new Intel chips on what W10 does will be interesting to watch. Again, early next year (2016) will see fully functional LTE 10nm chips in Surface/phones/other devices. The possible July release of W10 is phase 1, not sure what phase 2 would be - Xbox items? More new hardware? W10 upgrade?
It's going to be a very interesting year. Very interesting.
Good info!! You probably heard that another company (I forget who) spilled the beans recently when, in reply to a question, the CEO/whoever said W10 release is set for July.
MSFT up 10% yesterday. I don't care if it goes up more today or not - it's set to go higher with W10, it's set to go higher when the public and corporate and government users start going to it in droves, motivated by the software, and new hardware - esp Intel chips - no fan, long battery life, great speed, great new features/capabilities.
The digital world is changing fast. New, innovative products that improve the quality of life and personal productivity benefit EVERYONE. Global change, global benefits. Just incredible.
Your posts give great insights from someone with hands-on, frontline knowledge and experience - thanks!
I love it - a 10% one-day gain, and the gain was NOT due to W10. Just think about price action as cloud continues to grow, advertising income increases, phone sales increase, Surface sales increase, and W10 is lauded for unmatched security, ease of use, and overall functionality/usefulness to both the average consumer, but also to business. And the "average consumer" is worldwide - everywhere, every price point, every platform.
They personally don't know all that much - they repeat what their staffs tell them, and in too many cases they don't know enough to question their staffs. Much of the time they're reasonably credible, but it's clear then know very little about MSFT.
I wonder if the chip in your Surface is 14nm? As the year progresses, Intel chips will include additional functions, esp wireless and misc apps.
Next fall observers expect Intel to release chips at 10nm, with still more increased functionality built into the chip. Early 2016 will see 10mn chips with maximum functionality.
It will take some time to shrink to 7nm, but the 10nm will serve the consumer well for a long time.
As much as you like your Surface today, we'll see what improvement we see with W10, and new MSFT hardware - esp Surface, and top-end phones.
I feel sad for him.
(That was sarcasm).
I'm on a long trip - a 10% increase in MSFT pays for my trip. I'll take it. MSFT is going up; so is Intel; so is Nokia. Different core reasons, increasing at different rates and schedules, but all going up.
Somehow the Goldman analysts aren't embarrassed - for their calls on MSFT, or on INTC. I don't know how they can show up at conference calls and be taken seriously. They're a joke.
Just as MSFT took available tech and made Surface, they will push the hardware envelope on phones - never again will MSFT rely on others to produce cutting edge hardware. MSFT got burned by Apple because Apple controlled the hardware and software. When MSFT went to Dell/HP/whoever and wanted innovation, they said "Nah, we're doing fine making commodity PCs". If hardware makers won't innovate hardware, MSFT will. I think MSFT will work to push the innovation envelope on hardware, on all platforms.
Seven straight triple digit gains in cloud - pretty soon Wall Street is going to have to acknowledge what Buffet calls "the miracle of compound interest" - growth on growth.
And, we're not talking about W10 in this earnings report. Wait until this time next year (!!!!).
I'm very much looking forward to seeing what they do with Surface, Surface Phone, and W10. I know some die-hard Apple users who are getting interested in Surface - these are busy people who need/want productivity, and if Surface is a better product, they'll go there. They're looking, possibly waiting to see what W10 looks like.