Given that the deal is pretty much a slam dunk now, this is how i understand the price movement will be prior to deal close: it will trade somewhere above $37.30 prior to DYAX delisting to reflect the positive value of the CVR. At close, the price will go down to $37.30 - this will be the price x shares cash amt which will show up one morning in your brokerage acct. Any value above $37.30 will be transferred into ownership of the CVR which today is worth somewhere between $0 to $4. I'm willing to take $2 to $3 for it present value (today).
Seeing DYAX lawsuits - this creates pressure to upside. As CEO made clear, purchase of Dyax does not prohibit buyout of BXLT. Dax is located not too far from Shire in MA. Given competitive situation between two, this is highly likely a done deal. Given low vol, looks like long-term investors are locking in profits before year-end and arbs are waiting to step in early '16 - IMO.
As of Nov 30th, i think you're asking the right $bill question... DYAX going down below $34. Arbs not taking to close 10%+ annualized return. If anything, the sentiment is that DYAX is under-valued at purchase price of $37.30 cash. I've heard that a big huge is long puts for short-term for some reason. Given that Shire has locked up financing, I'd love to hear thoughts on why the spread is widening here.