Score, Good to see u on the RXDX board as well as MRTX's. It's more messed up here than you alluded to... CFO at Laden conf re-emphasized that 3 additional patients showed disease stabilization - in side 18 of pres, these three showed responses ranging from 5% to %25 not qualifying for RECIST 30% level. It looked like they were recent adds. That would put the Disease Control Rate at 89%! (16 out of 18).
Give me a break... u seriously think they pushed a $45 sec offering down the Baker Bros' throat? How dumb are you, or how dumb do you the BBs are?
PJ analyst (whom, admittedly, isn't well followed) stated, "While the response rates have slipped somewhat from the previously reported 10/11, the updated 13/18 responses plus 3/18 stable disease is still very robust/competitive and supportive of a product which we see as highly likely to reach commercialization." In May, co disclosed that 10 out of 11 patients showed RECIST response. For update at Aug cutoff, 13 out of 18 showed response (30% min reduction in tumor) with 3 additional patients showing stabilization - that's 16 out of 18 patients where the drug had some effect. Maybe co mgmt could have communicated this better? CEO needs to be out there clarifying, not CMO or CFO - you just had your co. enterprise value halved.
I think you're right, Seattledoc. I've seen a pattern of delayed catch-up to Mirati price movements in the past. I've made money following Baker Bros, but i have a strong feeling that between RXDX and MRTX, RXDX is the better of the two. I wish i knew the Bakers' logic in going so big in MRTX.
ok. From what I can tell both these cos located in San Diego are targeting commercialization of similar tyrosine kinase inhibitors which have similar size addressable patients but do not compete against each other. So why has Mirati doubled it's market cap in the past couple of weeks? They had positive RECIST efficacy news but much later than Ignyta did earlier this summer. I'm having a hard time believing that it has all to do with the Baker Bros owning 20% of Mirati. Is Ignyta just delayed in catching up?
ok... this is a legit question. sharp mgmt, great ASCO press and data. I like that they sold secondary at peak of valuation, but why would any institution have bought in the secondary offering? Also, why isn't there a take-out floor to the value?
Very untrue. They took on some debt in anticipation of going forward with commercialization. They have more cash $70M than debt $20M. Varian definitely knows when to sell shares at peak valuation - I'll give him that.
No question mgmt has some time since they are sitting on $50M net cash position (less loan from Hercules). I've never seen a mgmt team set such high expectations (Eyeguard B) - with only 63 sample size, it's a joke to even call this a phase3. Anyway, bakers have left, and now you have Kingdon making a sizeable bet.
i agree - following an analyst recommendation is fool-hardy. it's noteworthy that what's starting to peek out now is what RBC alluded to: "There is a 20% chance that the trial will miss the primary endpoint but its secondary endpoints will “demonstrate strong benefit,” in which shares will either remain unchanged or drop 25%." There's a lot to be said about this P3 being designed poorly if the placebo-control group is all over the place because the corticosteroid everyone is taking is having a significant positive affect. A patient can't take an anti-inflammatory steroid long-term w/o significant adverse effects.
Adnan Butt of RBC Capital Markets reiterated an Outperform rating on XOMA with an $8 price target last week. Although Butt expects the results to be released shortly, he notes that a “read-through is challenging” because “Pilot and Phase II data showed strong efficacy but Phase III design and endpoints are different.” The analyst currently believes the Phase III study has a 55% probability of success, which “should take shares up ~100%+.”
Butt believes there is a 25% chance of a negative outcome, which “could take shares down ~50%+.” There is a 20% chance that the trial will miss the primary endpoint but its secondary endpoints will “demonstrate strong benefit,” in which shares will either remain unchanged or drop 25%.
just to clarify, this was an orphan disease drug fast-track. If slight improvement over existing treatment, cannot sell it for big $$$ to patients via healthcare providers. This really was a binary event.
This is the way bio-tech works. Xoma will need to raise cash (albeit at much higher price than today) to retire bridge financing, start commercialization and pursue other indications for gev.
Roger that. A big sell order triggered several profit-taking trades for those who rode up Cowen's note last week. Quality of wall st analysts saying that trail results will be positive is high - it's not Roth or Wainwright or some two-man shop. This is Phase 3 results, folks!
So, I get that insiders have been buying the stock in the open mkt - that usually is a good sign. Not understanding why this is now dipping below the secondary offering price of $17.50 - did the roadshow not go well? Did CEO or CSO say something stupid to scare away the institutions? You had two of the co-lead mgrs of the offering initiate price targets at $34, and this thing is still trending down. Can someone provide some insight as to why institutional interest is drying up?