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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

clidinho1 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2015 8:23 PM Member since: Dec 22, 1999
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  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Jan 27, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    It simply means that as BP America, a subsidiary of "mother BP"...BP PLC., BP America balance sheet needs to cover the charges or BP PLC can let it go insolvent. Hint judge, go easy on the finds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The factors which the Judge will use to determine the final penalty will clearly lead to a less than 50% of the maximum per barrel. Simply stated, historical ruling on average has been 10 to 15cts on the dollar. The $6.8b is based on an upper boundary of 50%. It is illogical to urge that BP has done everything humanly and commercially possible to remedy the incident. Furthermore, the overall environmental recovery has far exceeded any best projections. Lastly, current oil prices will further support a lower price. At $6.8b, BP is likely to pay and move on, at a higher figure, BP will most likely appeal and resolve this in 20 years.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $ 14 billion ruling

    by samsonforce5638 Jan 2, 2015 11:26 AM
    clidinho1 clidinho1 Jan 3, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    I will be significantly less...more like ~$2b, typically these assessments have come in at 10cts on the dollar, plus BP did a heck of a job managing the spill.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In my humble view, BP continues to prove that it is ready to move higher. Credit is where credit is due, BP has delivered or is about to deliver on its 10 point plan ~$30 to $30b in cash flow this year. This is simply outstanding. As for 15+, BP's future look very bright, many projects are coming on line and costs are coming down. Services costs are expected to be lower by $1 to $2b in 2015 due to lower crude prices and oversupply.

    As for the GN ruling, it is my believe that between what BP did post the incident, the final agreed flow rate that costs will be well below $10b. Plus, it may take 20 years to pay if the Government doesn't easy up. Exxon is still battling the Alaska spill. This could obviously change if the DOJ start to play fair and easy up.

    Regardless, BP will continue to be a great company with a bright future and a 5+% dividend...that aint bad.

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Oct 29, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    I am not an expert, but to assume $18b as realistic seems naïve. The $18b assumes, the highest flow estimate, the highest penalty and no credit for how the company responded. To the flow estimate, BP ought to do fairly well given their engineering flow model, as to the penalty, it seems that the $4k per day will prevail as gross neg., finally, BP should get huge benefits for their effort post the incident. Therefore, anything in the range of $5 to $10b seems actually fair. Or like Exxon, we will be still writing about this in 20 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 by clidinho1 Aug 5, 2014 8:55 PM Flag

    I have come to the conclusion that this stock various ratios, P/E, PEG, growth and so on simply doesn't correlate to the high degree a variability of this stock. I wish all longs great luck, but I am out with a little positive return...the action of this stock can't be explained by its financials, hence, I am out. Best of luck to all.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Jul 23, 2014 7:56 PM Flag

    Yes we will...we will report akin to FB. Longs wil be rewarded

  • earning will show afop has gain mkt share at $26m rev....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Jul 11, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    I fully agree, the financials look great. However, this is a tough pony ride (up and down and all around). What makes it worse is that such volatility occurs absent of any news. It seems that the market makers really like to scoop up those stop losses orders.
    I hope the earnings will come as predicted with a $25-$26m rev and strong guidance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Jul 10, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    Fully agree. They need to hire a PR person to help them with new releases...this company is way to quiet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 Jun 4, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Stop shorting this simply look silly with these hopeless comments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Harry Boxer's Charts of the Day

    by thetechtraderca May 29, 2014 7:27 AM
    clidinho1 clidinho1 May 29, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    His target is $23.5/sh on the short term

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 clidinho1 May 28, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    You are right and with all of the ups and downs of this stock of late, much of the weak hands are out. This means that we should continue to see higher days. I am still hoping for $23/s by mid summer and $30/s by year's end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Based purely on fundamentals, this stock has nothing but upside. Look at its cash position, Contribution margins, Revs YoY and Industry momentum. In fact, I wonder whether AFOP isn't a good acquisition target as many of its competitors are of larger market cap. As I posted before, in my view, we will see $23 by Q2 announcements (July 23rd) and likely $30/sh by year end. The E on the P/E ratio and its PEG ratio will drive the shares higher.

    As to the non-sayers, point me to a balance sheet or income statement item or any other fundamental that does not support my assertions. Clearly no one has a crystal ball and these are purely my views, however, these views are based on financial facts. To bash just for the sake of bashing is simply stating the obvious ... "oops, I have shorted the stock and I am now hurting...hence may I try fears onto others". It ain't working. The market was down 135 pts today and AFOP is UP!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Added to my position

    by right2say May 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    clidinho1 clidinho1 May 12, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Fully agree, I am bullish on this stock based on fundamentals. m $23/sh coming soon.

  • The company ops are hitting at all cylinders, production is higher than GFOs with upcoming well work adding to further to production. BP has 11 working rigs in the Golf alone. Downstream is doing just fine, Whiting is coming along and well ahead of schedule. Upcoming earnings in 2Q14 will surpass the 1Q14 and further substantiate the fact that BP's performance edge is truly back. Lastly, at this rate, we will deliver on the 6 point plan (double the cash flow by 2014) by 3Q14. This company is back and back with a win attitude!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • clidinho1 by clidinho1 Apr 27, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    I just recently became a shareholder of AFOP and I must say that I am very pleased with how the shares have moved thus far. As I continue to do my Due Diligence, I run into some Financial stats for AFOP that is a must of sharing for Longs:

    There are only 18.4 M shares outstanding with Insider owning 35% of the outstanding shares. This is excellent as it shows the company owners have skin in the game. Institutions own another 27%...not bad for such a small company of $338m market cap. I clearly see a take potential over here. I must say, the stats look great:

    The PEG ratio (widely know as a great predictor of share growth) is at 0.56 (anything less than 1 is good). The peg takes its trailing P/E and divides by the average earnings forecast growth for the next 5 years. Basically, forecasters have the future 5 years growth at 25-50% range which is truly outstanding.

    Other worthy mentions include: $50M in cash...yes, about 15% of its market cap and a historical ROE of 26%. Also, because of their integrated sale solutions, they can raise prices thus earning a Profit Margins of 35-40%. Microsoft did that in its early days.

    I am a long term investor and I look for value with a greater upside than the market average. I don't bet the farm in companies like these, but it is hard to argue with their recent financial deliveries. My prediction is that this stock will be $30 by 3Q/2014. Good luck Longs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • clidinho1 by clidinho1 Apr 25, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    Yes, I think that what we saw today was a clean up of the weak hand at $16.75 or so dip. Those who did not sell will benefit next week. As arvind intelligently said, this is a stock with a good dosage of volatility and a great upside. In my view the $25m guidance is a great place to guide above as they did last quarter. In the end, one just can't find higher demand and higher margins. AFOP has both going for them. To the Longs: Don't sell...hang in there and we will be richly rewarded. Best to all...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    reason for strong closing

    by arvind7746 Apr 25, 2014 6:33 PM
    clidinho1 clidinho1 Apr 25, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    Thank you arvind, I wish all posts on this board were as intelligent as yours. Well done

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    upgrade by B.Riley from 16 to 18

    by chipin8511 Mar 18, 2014 8:39 AM
    clidinho1 clidinho1 Mar 23, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    i see AFOP reaching $25 by late summer

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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