I believe this is setting up with a nice run accelerating into earnings and then the holiday season. The last 8k really clinched it for me. Additional funds with no defaults and no material adverse effects from July amendment. Company appears to have stabilized and now should be in at least a moderate growth mode. It makes sense now if the turnaround advisor is no longer there (an assumption) as monies can be saved there. Either way, I see no reason why an additional $3MM is made available to SPDC if there are any material concerns about the direction of the business.
A nice uptick on good volume will be the sign that this will be making an accelerated run soon. Let's see how this week plays out. A nice PR would help but not needed if business concerns are headed in right direction..
I am surprised no one commented on the 8k filing on Friday. The Lenders agreed to fund an additional $3mm, with $1.5mm drawn down immediately. The company uses cash through the holidays and gets it back post holidays as receivables are collected. Once again, this is a positive sign business is growing and expected to grow into the holiday season.
At least as important is the representation in the amendment agreement that there are no defaults under the credit agreement as of the effective date and there were no material adverse effects to the company since the effective date of the fifth amendment back in July. This is very positive that no negative surprises are in store. One could also read this as saying the company met its Ebitda and related financial covenants for the quarter ending 9/30 as the 7th amendments effective date was October 6. My take on it.
Shares are attractive. I will leave it at that for now.
Next were the announcements on major customers staying with SPDC...Yankee candle for example. Given the level of scrutiny involved with SPDC right now, and the sensitivity to legal consequences, I believe it is highly unlikely SPDC puts out a PR about Yankee Candle unless its operations are fairly stable. You can't condition the market with positive news, especially when there are doubts about the viability of your company, if other events are going on from the negative side. You are simply opening yourself up to a potential lawsuit. I highly doubt that is the situation here. So I take it at face value that operations are likely stable and probably improving year over year.
Finally, the timing of certain corporate events going forward supports the notion that operations are indeed improving. I am not saying SPDC is going to a certain price. I have no idea. But I do believe SPDC will see its share price appreciate measurably through the balance of 2015 and into early 2016 as it is oversold based on doubts about viability. I believe those doubts are being put to bed. Shorts have covered for the most part. Reports of positive execution should have a significant effect here.
Just some thoughts.
Just some thoughts on SPDC:
You have to respect that a stock that is trading at these levels only has a relatively small subset of the universe interested in trading it. The assumption that something is not right comes into play and many therefore simply stay away and are not interested at all in a story or possible turnaround, or the reverse. That being said, the stock world is full of distressed companies that fly under the radar as they try to regain some footing. Some make it, many do not. But emphasize some do make it. I believe SPDC is in the latter and will make it through all of this in one manner or another to give current equity holders a nice premium.
There is a misconception that SPDC is so dire in terms of liquidity that it will file for BK. Not true in my opinion. The credit facility has been adequately amended to provide for flexibility through the holiday season. Cash levels, or anticipated cash levels once receivables turn into cash, will provide SPDC with ample cash to move forward. The interest payments on the credit facility are significant, but still manageable. The key is the company hitting, or better yet, exceeding, revenue and ebitda targets over the next 2 quarters (with particular emphasis on the December quarter).
The recent news is encouraging on a few fronts for me. The amendment back in September removed certain undisclosed non-financial covenants. There is speculation that it removed the requirement that the turnaround specialist remain with SPDC through December, but there likely were others as well so that is not a certainty. However it does make some sense. Unless SPDC was going to file for reorganization, the primary purpose of the turnaround specialist was to integrate Fifth gear and generate the synergies and cost savings expected from the acquisition. There was progress noted as of June 30 on this front. It is entirely possible that suficient progress was made as of September to no longer require them
What is interesting is that there were opportunities to lower guidance but it was not done. There were explanations relating to games being moved into and out of Q3, Q4 and 2016, but no warning was given even when discussing the earlier lower guidance.
Really no reason for shares to sell off, and frankly none to see them take off toward $6 yet, but a move toward $5 should be forthcoming very soon. Then news is necessary to move it.
Some color as to games moving into/out of 3Q, 4Q and Q1 2016, but no earnings warning as to Q3. In fact, there was every opportunity to guide lower than already discussed back in early August but none was given. This would seem to be modestly positive for the shares for this quarter. No big pop, but a move to $5 is possible, if not probable, by end of quarter in my opinion. Q4 is setting up well.
The company is presenting at the Stifel conference tomorrow. I highly doubt they will not be giving some substantive updates of game releases, etc. which would necessitate a PR prior to the presentation. I will let the rest of the GLUU followers here figure out if it will be positive or not, but I do expect a PR no later than pre-market tomorrow morning.
Wouldn't surprise me to see ,30 or more very soon. If you look at the activity on major customers, you should see some nice data. The company should be coming out this month with proxy materials and a plan to get back over $1. This nonsense of delisting by early October is folly. The company is worth at least $1/share if it hits it's revenue and Ebitda numbers. This will be known, at least internally, by January. The website stats support this is achievable. The lenders have given the company the needed time to stabilize. Cash flow requirements are not significant until mid 2016. Any positive news will send this well up as guidance supports much higher prices. Of course anything can happen here on the negative too. However the market has certain data sources which help investors understand these type of businesses. I suggest checking out the perforance of major ecommerce customers.
I am a bit amazed at the reaction to losing Justice. This was pretty well known this time last year and was announced by its parent late in 2014. Yet in the spring of 2014 it surprised SPDC investors? It all makes little sense EXCEPT there clearly was animosity between Willis and Zisk.
All I know is I am very content buying up shares in the teens and low 20's. I highly doubt the company is going under and any takeover will need to have value for equity holders to pass a fairness opinion.
Positive day on Friday given market weakness. Shares have digested early August decline from earnings report and market volatility to the downside. Shares are now attractively priced for a run back to the $5 range. Any positive news will get this to $5 in short order but trend and any sort of stability in overall market will also allow it to move there soon. Always some inherent risks with this industry but Gluu has been oversold in here.
extremely sage posting "jim." There will not be a reverse split until 2016 in my opinion. The shares will break out to the upside soon. It may or may not make it to a buck by the end of the year, but momentum over improving operations and likelihood of a buyout in excess of $1/share will drive volume and appreciation.
The insiders can't buy on the open market. Too much material information.
SPDC appears to be one of those company's where a perfect storm has taken them down and now they need a catalyst to ramp up confidence. They are doing the right things now operationally. The catalyst is coming soon. This month in my opinion. Then these days will be long gone and much higher prices will take hold. I am looking for greater than .50 by October, if not sooner. This will not just go up a few pennies a day. There will be an event that will see this rise 100% or more on a single day or days. The shorts are out of it for the most part soon. If not already.
It is rather routine to get an extension of time to avoid delisting. In addition, the company is considering strategic alternatives such as a sale. Combine that with the compsny entering into its busier time with the holidays.and there really is no reason to do a reverse split now. The pps will be much higher if the company hits its numbers in q2 and q3 especially. The company is not going bk if you look at the balance sheet. The calls on cash combined with the better cash flow months coming up should allow the company to get some stability. Finally the recent trading taking it down to the lower teens was a bit strange. Expecting a rally soon.
Nothing unusual in 10-Q. Expect the shares to trend upwards as it becomes increasingly clear the company will survive and likely get taken out for closer to $1/share than current prices.
Today's report confirms SPDC will not only be surviving but is growing and clawing itself back to stability. Q1 is historically the weakest quarter. Ebitda of $2.mm bodes very well for a beat on guidance later in the year. The bank covenant was for Ebitda of 10.7mm on a trailing 12 month basis and it came in at 11.6mm. The company is growing and that is why it needed some cash as ecommerce projects require upfront cash.
Enjoy the gains. This should just be the start of a nice run.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am not here to debate you or anyone. the stock is trading in the low .20's. That is a fact. that is undisputed. What I am trying to figure out is whether spdc is one of those companies that has been hammered down for good reason, but has good reasons why it will survive and go up./ I believe spdc is positioned to do just that and in the not too distant future. It needs to restore confidence that it is on the right track. .20 can become .01 in a hurry but it can also turn into .60 in a hurry as well.I have no crystal ball, but try and glean and analyze what I can.
I can name a number of companies that haven't announced when they will report their earnings between now and August 15. Many of which are sound and stable.
Again, I am not concerned about a disastrous earnings report. To the contrary. The 5th Amendment makes it clear that the company was in compliance BEFORE and AFTER the effectiveness of the Amendment. This includes all of the financial covenants. No one is sayind spdc is the next best thing. But I am saying that I believe the company will survive and the earnings reports going forward should reflect nice improvement year over year and an integration of Fifth Gear. The result will be sizeable gains from these levels later this year.
I have nothing but speculation to say this, but I believe the company first engaged Stifel to sell it, but found the offers underwhelming. They then engaged Conway Mackenzie to help fix its internal integration issues with Fifth Gear (likely with some push from the lenders) and now have been successful at buying time in order for the integration and new customers to take hold later in 2015. Then they can be sold at a far more reasonable valuation. All my speculation, but it makes sense when you look at the timelines and the lender amendments giving spdc plenty of time to show improvements during the balance of 2015.
The market is full of "show me" first stocks. spdc took a tumble for many reasons, most deserved, but I believe it has far oversold. But it is in a "show me' state right now. Insiders can't buy due to material information. You have/had some big sellers like Zisk. The company has yet to deliver an earnings report where money can get behind and see the turnaround. Instead, it disappointed with recent earnings reports (an understatement) and is firmly in the penalty box. Does it make it out? I believe so, but it has not shown it yet. I do believe this next earnings report will show signs of improvement that will start some momentum back up.
The market is full of companies trading at pennies and have rebounded. It is also true that there are far more trading in pennies that go bust. SPDC has the time and I believe business model to make it work. I guess we will just see. But this is not your run of the mill .20/share stock. One can make a very reasonable case for its survival and appreciation in share price.
Also, there has been no delay in earnings reports. Not sure where you get that one from at all. It is a 3/31 fiscal year company.
I am hardly young as well and actually experienced in many of these matters involving spdc. I will just leave it at that. Of course anything could be going on. However, you always need to read the entire document. In the amendment for the $5MM, a condition was that spdc was not in default under the lender covenants BEFORE and AFTER the amendment. This means that spdc was in compliance with the ebitda covenants and other covenants as they were funded the $2MM from the amendment. The other debt covenants were also in compliance.
What people don't realize is that ecommerce uses cash upfront. Then benefits of ecommerce come after a site is up and running and generating revenue. Prior to such time the provider uses cash. My guess is this is the reason spdc is using cash right now and why the lenders are willing to fund more as the revenues will start flowing later in 2015 and beyond.
Also, Conway MacKenzie was engaged in mid May, well before these amendments and any talk of BK or otherwise. They were brought in to facilitate the integration of Fifth Gear and effectively assist in a turnaround. Some have pointed out what Conway does in a BK or reorganization. What they intentionally omit is what Conway does for turnaround and integration M&A clients. I believe SPDC falls into this category at this time. Somewhat confirmed with Willis' statements in mid June about the progress being made integrating Fifth Gear and expense savings.
A message board has all sorts of people with agendas. Good, bad, indifferent. My advice is read the company filings. Read the entire amendments. There are nuggets in there to help you understand what is going on. Per the 5th Amendment, SPDC was not in default under the credit agreement BEFORE it became effective and AFTER it was funded.
SPDC is not going BK given the relatively low level of cash required for principal payments over the next 6-12 months. It has time to execute.