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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

cliffbanger86 54 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2015 1:28 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2007
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  • cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 May 16, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    The SEC filing does not mean the preferred was converted. If you look at the SEC filing on 3/16 you will see spdc had an obligation to register the underlying common stock upon conversion. The price of .27 was used for filing few purposes. The preferred does get adjusted downward from 1.50 based on subsequent issuances but nowhere near .27 as I can calculate.

    There are times when the perfect storm hits a stock and me market overreacts. This is the case with spdc. Disappointing earnings followed by major shareholders falling out with mgt and selling, Russell index selling, fund selling and share dilution. Therefore the current price. But reaffirmation of fy 2016 guidance and manageable amended financial covenants in place, the shares appear extremely cheap here. But you have to have a bit of patience over the next short period of time. 4q results will have a big loss given the terms of the amended credit facility but mostly with non operational write offs. I expect an upbeat forecast.

    And remember AAFES.

    I may be off base, but I have this as a strong buy now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 13, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    Spdc is not going BK. The business of spdc is a cash flow business, not a hard asset business. The lenders have every incentive to work with spdc to keep it generating cash flows. Therefore you see the amended credit facility. Sure the terms extract some pain but spdc can cash flow it. Eventually it will get bought out or the facility refinanced at more favorable terms. But BK is not an option. The lenders will simply not allow it as they need the cash flow from spdc.

    This isn't hard to figure out.

    Again, AAFES

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 13, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Special shareholders meeting to authorize increase in authorized shares. No mention at all of a reverse split to get shares over $1. Belief is shares will gain traction once selling abates from Russell index, Zisk and others and attention turns to operations for FY 16 which began 4/1.

    Look for news on AAFES soon that will be very good for SPDC.

    That's all for today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 6, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    I hope you guys realize that the statement relating to no offers or proposals to the company solely relates to Zisk's involvement in any offer or proposal. It does not state the company has no proposals or offers at this time. Maybe they do or maybe not, but the filing only deals with Zisk's involvement.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 3, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Zisk appears to have sold just enough to no longer be a 10% shareholder. Since he is also no longer a director nor officer, he no longer has an obligation to file Form 4's when he sells. This is likely why he sold another 200k on Friday. He needed to get under 10%.

    As for insider selling, Zisk as a director until recently had to be privy to the financial condition of the company. Plus other developments. If you read the recent filings, you will see the company paid the principal installment due to Garrison in the fall when the offering closed on 4/21. This would not have happened if other defaults are occurring that will not be waived. The shares are going to trade much higher from these levels. In my opinion of course.

  • Reply to

    Sale soon

    by cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:13 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Let's put it another way. There will be a nice return above .56 given the new monies coming in today. That us a given.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    My guess is between 1.50 and 2.00 if company is integrating and boarding new clients as it claims. Nice return from here. Makes too much sense.

  • Reply to

    Good opportunity in SPDC down here

    by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:36 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Apr 14, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    Sure. The company has forecasted adjusted ebitda of between $15-17MM for FY 2016 beginning 4/1/15. The debt service is about $10.5MM over the next 12 months. If you examine the components of working capital, you will see that not all current liabilities are "cash" obligations. Therefore, even the cash conversion cycle over the next 12 months will be positive. Finally, I also believe management threw in the kitchen sink on the forecast for 2016 so as to not miss. Again, that is an assumption. CapEx is not significant going forward. The initial issues with AAFEs/Navy Exchange appear to have been resolved per recent statements and the potential seems good for a rather significant expansion of the online sites to all honorably discharged veterans.

    The shares are trading where they are. I am not saying they should be at $2 or 43 right now. They are where they are bc of the most recent results and issues flowing therefrom, and a general lack of any buying appetite, There is also a large overhang of shares from Zisk and others, but my guess is those get taken out without much of a dent in share price.

    I just don't see this as a BK candidate. Anything is possible, but I believe it is trading at these levels not bc of a BK threat, but for other reasons. For that reason, I believe patience will very likely be rewarded here later in 2015 and beyond as the picture becomes clearer.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    The company is not going BK. The cash flows easily cover the debt obligations as currently structured. The stock price issue is not uncommon. Surprisingly poor results in q3 with significantly more debt to fund an acquisition and the wedding out of former execs who are/will be selling a significant amount of shares.

    The conversions of AAFES and the Navy exchanges did not go smoothly but recent comments from aafes indicates that seems to have been resolved. Also the prospects for all honorably discharged vets using the online sites is promising given statements made late last month.

    Of course spdc screwed up. Of course the market pummeled them for it. But to make the leap it is going BK is not justified. The Justice and related companies departures were known a year ago. The Fifth Gear CEO is a quality guy who I expect to right the shop. The good thing is even the conservative forecasts manage the annual debt burden comfortably.

    Anything trading below $1 has risk but some also have nice opportunities. If you peel away all those who have prior agendas pro or con with spdc and just look at fundamentals, I believe you will see good opportunities here for strong gains.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Gar is way out of his league when quoting from the fair value analysis. Does he even know the professional standards required for it? Doubt it.

  • Read 8k from Friday

  • Reply to

    pps predictions for tomorrows close?

    by moneyrocket1 Mar 14, 2015 8:38 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Mar 15, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    BK is not coming anytime soon as the loan proceeds take care of 2015 and then the proceeds from the Central America will take care of 2016. Meanwhile there will be other projects as well. The prospects for Oceanica are also promising given the investment now by Minera. I highly doubt Minera even contemplates execution of an agreement without a good level of confidence on approval. Not a sure thing, but certainly promising. No new common shares are out there for shorts to cover. If you are a true short then the time to cover is now. Plenty of money made on the short side and the risk of not covering is too great. If Oceanica gets approved, the Minera investment guarantees it being a success and BK is not even a remote possibility.

  • Google news for Minera from yesterday. Going after reporter critical of Oceanica.

  • The reverse split should put OMEX over $5/share thereby opening up the universe of funds and institutional buyers. Reasoning behind 6:1.

    It's really good news for a company trading like it was going to go BK. That threat is over for now and gives time as well for payment on the CENTRAL AMERICA haul. Improved liquidity can't hurt the Victory process either.

  • Reply to

    CRP

    by murphy8275 Feb 9, 2015 6:43 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Feb 9, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    CRP decision should be known by no later than tomorrow evening here as NZ is nearly day ahead.

  • Reply to

    Monetizing SS Central America

    by no2obamanomics Feb 6, 2015 10:57 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Feb 6, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    yes. any further clarity towards monetizing the gold, etc. is good news. this has nothing to do with the contract between Kane and OMEX which is entirely valid. OMEX is the contractor to be paid out of monetization.

    More important is the recent stuff out of Mexico. Positive.

  • Reply to

    Meson misleads on cash balances

    by cliffbanger86 Jan 28, 2015 11:47 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jan 28, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    How dare you bring up something like CRP.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Jan 28, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    The company borrowed an additional $2.5MM on October 1 from the marketing loan and disclosed it had approval to borrow an additional $2.5MM at any time. This would give OMEX an additional $5MM in cash on top of cash balances at 9/30/14.

    Of course it is not "Known" except for what was put in the 10Q for 9/30/14 since the only Known financial statement was as of 9/30/14.

    Too funny.

  • Omex facebook post earlier this afternoon seems to indicate a big week coming up for it.

    Interesting if nothing else.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    options

    by murphy8275 Jan 9, 2015 12:09 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jan 9, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Options were issued at first instance on being able to above $1/share. The shareholders still need to approve the options/RSU's and if most of what is being anticipated occurs with Oceanica and victory, the approval will occur as the share price will be at least triple from here. Its true this stock can go any which way, but it is a fair bet that it will go up significantly if Oceanica gets the go ahead from Mexico and further once Victory y commences. The Central America takes care of a good chuck of debt and that will also be forthcoming. Of course none may occur hence shares of $1 right now, but more than a few oars to make this float regardless for some time. Sort of nice to ride a stock that can be split in half or literally be a five bagger in short order with the right news.

COLM
56.37-0.24(-0.42%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT