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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

cliffbanger86 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2015 1:28 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2007
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  • cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 May 16, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    The SEC filing does not mean the preferred was converted. If you look at the SEC filing on 3/16 you will see spdc had an obligation to register the underlying common stock upon conversion. The price of .27 was used for filing few purposes. The preferred does get adjusted downward from 1.50 based on subsequent issuances but nowhere near .27 as I can calculate.

    There are times when the perfect storm hits a stock and me market overreacts. This is the case with spdc. Disappointing earnings followed by major shareholders falling out with mgt and selling, Russell index selling, fund selling and share dilution. Therefore the current price. But reaffirmation of fy 2016 guidance and manageable amended financial covenants in place, the shares appear extremely cheap here. But you have to have a bit of patience over the next short period of time. 4q results will have a big loss given the terms of the amended credit facility but mostly with non operational write offs. I expect an upbeat forecast.

    And remember AAFES.

    I may be off base, but I have this as a strong buy now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 13, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    Spdc is not going BK. The business of spdc is a cash flow business, not a hard asset business. The lenders have every incentive to work with spdc to keep it generating cash flows. Therefore you see the amended credit facility. Sure the terms extract some pain but spdc can cash flow it. Eventually it will get bought out or the facility refinanced at more favorable terms. But BK is not an option. The lenders will simply not allow it as they need the cash flow from spdc.

    This isn't hard to figure out.

    Again, AAFES

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 13, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    Special shareholders meeting to authorize increase in authorized shares. No mention at all of a reverse split to get shares over $1. Belief is shares will gain traction once selling abates from Russell index, Zisk and others and attention turns to operations for FY 16 which began 4/1.

    Look for news on AAFES soon that will be very good for SPDC.

    That's all for today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 6, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    I hope you guys realize that the statement relating to no offers or proposals to the company solely relates to Zisk's involvement in any offer or proposal. It does not state the company has no proposals or offers at this time. Maybe they do or maybe not, but the filing only deals with Zisk's involvement.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 May 3, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    Zisk appears to have sold just enough to no longer be a 10% shareholder. Since he is also no longer a director nor officer, he no longer has an obligation to file Form 4's when he sells. This is likely why he sold another 200k on Friday. He needed to get under 10%.

    As for insider selling, Zisk as a director until recently had to be privy to the financial condition of the company. Plus other developments. If you read the recent filings, you will see the company paid the principal installment due to Garrison in the fall when the offering closed on 4/21. This would not have happened if other defaults are occurring that will not be waived. The shares are going to trade much higher from these levels. In my opinion of course.

  • Reply to

    Sale soon

    by cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:13 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Let's put it another way. There will be a nice return above .56 given the new monies coming in today. That us a given.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 16, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    My guess is between 1.50 and 2.00 if company is integrating and boarding new clients as it claims. Nice return from here. Makes too much sense.

  • Reply to

    Good opportunity in SPDC down here

    by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:36 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Apr 14, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    Sure. The company has forecasted adjusted ebitda of between $15-17MM for FY 2016 beginning 4/1/15. The debt service is about $10.5MM over the next 12 months. If you examine the components of working capital, you will see that not all current liabilities are "cash" obligations. Therefore, even the cash conversion cycle over the next 12 months will be positive. Finally, I also believe management threw in the kitchen sink on the forecast for 2016 so as to not miss. Again, that is an assumption. CapEx is not significant going forward. The initial issues with AAFEs/Navy Exchange appear to have been resolved per recent statements and the potential seems good for a rather significant expansion of the online sites to all honorably discharged veterans.

    The shares are trading where they are. I am not saying they should be at $2 or 43 right now. They are where they are bc of the most recent results and issues flowing therefrom, and a general lack of any buying appetite, There is also a large overhang of shares from Zisk and others, but my guess is those get taken out without much of a dent in share price.

    I just don't see this as a BK candidate. Anything is possible, but I believe it is trading at these levels not bc of a BK threat, but for other reasons. For that reason, I believe patience will very likely be rewarded here later in 2015 and beyond as the picture becomes clearer.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    The company is not going BK. The cash flows easily cover the debt obligations as currently structured. The stock price issue is not uncommon. Surprisingly poor results in q3 with significantly more debt to fund an acquisition and the wedding out of former execs who are/will be selling a significant amount of shares.

    The conversions of AAFES and the Navy exchanges did not go smoothly but recent comments from aafes indicates that seems to have been resolved. Also the prospects for all honorably discharged vets using the online sites is promising given statements made late last month.

    Of course spdc screwed up. Of course the market pummeled them for it. But to make the leap it is going BK is not justified. The Justice and related companies departures were known a year ago. The Fifth Gear CEO is a quality guy who I expect to right the shop. The good thing is even the conservative forecasts manage the annual debt burden comfortably.

    Anything trading below $1 has risk but some also have nice opportunities. If you peel away all those who have prior agendas pro or con with spdc and just look at fundamentals, I believe you will see good opportunities here for strong gains.

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Apr 12, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Gar is way out of his league when quoting from the fair value analysis. Does he even know the professional standards required for it? Doubt it.

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COLM
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