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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

cliffbanger86 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 1, 2015 5:47 PM Member since: Nov 21, 2007
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  • Reply to

    One month to delisting

    by rossipetraglia Sep 1, 2015 1:36 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Sep 1, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    extremely sage posting "jim." There will not be a reverse split until 2016 in my opinion. The shares will break out to the upside soon. It may or may not make it to a buck by the end of the year, but momentum over improving operations and likelihood of a buyout in excess of $1/share will drive volume and appreciation.

    The insiders can't buy on the open market. Too much material information.

    SPDC appears to be one of those company's where a perfect storm has taken them down and now they need a catalyst to ramp up confidence. They are doing the right things now operationally. The catalyst is coming soon. This month in my opinion. Then these days will be long gone and much higher prices will take hold. I am looking for greater than .50 by October, if not sooner. This will not just go up a few pennies a day. There will be an event that will see this rise 100% or more on a single day or days. The shorts are out of it for the most part soon. If not already.

    Stay tuned.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It is rather routine to get an extension of time to avoid delisting. In addition, the company is considering strategic alternatives such as a sale. Combine that with the compsny entering into its busier time with the holidays.and there really is no reason to do a reverse split now. The pps will be much higher if the company hits its numbers in q2 and q3 especially. The company is not going bk if you look at the balance sheet. The calls on cash combined with the better cash flow months coming up should allow the company to get some stability. Finally the recent trading taking it down to the lower teens was a bit strange. Expecting a rally soon.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Aug 11, 2015 12:00 AM Flag

    Nothing unusual in 10-Q. Expect the shares to trend upwards as it becomes increasingly clear the company will survive and likely get taken out for closer to $1/share than current prices.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 by cliffbanger86 Aug 10, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    Today's report confirms SPDC will not only be surviving but is growing and clawing itself back to stability. Q1 is historically the weakest quarter. Ebitda of $2.mm bodes very well for a beat on guidance later in the year. The bank covenant was for Ebitda of 10.7mm on a trailing 12 month basis and it came in at 11.6mm. The company is growing and that is why it needed some cash as ecommerce projects require upfront cash.

    Enjoy the gains. This should just be the start of a nice run.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Please expain why this is at $.20

    by rossipetraglia Jul 29, 2015 12:38 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 29, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I am not here to debate you or anyone. the stock is trading in the low .20's. That is a fact. that is undisputed. What I am trying to figure out is whether spdc is one of those companies that has been hammered down for good reason, but has good reasons why it will survive and go up./ I believe spdc is positioned to do just that and in the not too distant future. It needs to restore confidence that it is on the right track. .20 can become .01 in a hurry but it can also turn into .60 in a hurry as well.I have no crystal ball, but try and glean and analyze what I can.

  • Reply to

    Please expain why this is at $.20

    by rossipetraglia Jul 29, 2015 12:38 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 29, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    I can name a number of companies that haven't announced when they will report their earnings between now and August 15. Many of which are sound and stable.

    Again, I am not concerned about a disastrous earnings report. To the contrary. The 5th Amendment makes it clear that the company was in compliance BEFORE and AFTER the effectiveness of the Amendment. This includes all of the financial covenants. No one is sayind spdc is the next best thing. But I am saying that I believe the company will survive and the earnings reports going forward should reflect nice improvement year over year and an integration of Fifth Gear. The result will be sizeable gains from these levels later this year.

    I have nothing but speculation to say this, but I believe the company first engaged Stifel to sell it, but found the offers underwhelming. They then engaged Conway Mackenzie to help fix its internal integration issues with Fifth Gear (likely with some push from the lenders) and now have been successful at buying time in order for the integration and new customers to take hold later in 2015. Then they can be sold at a far more reasonable valuation. All my speculation, but it makes sense when you look at the timelines and the lender amendments giving spdc plenty of time to show improvements during the balance of 2015.

  • Reply to

    Please expain why this is at $.20

    by rossipetraglia Jul 29, 2015 12:38 PM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 29, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    The market is full of "show me" first stocks. spdc took a tumble for many reasons, most deserved, but I believe it has far oversold. But it is in a "show me' state right now. Insiders can't buy due to material information. You have/had some big sellers like Zisk. The company has yet to deliver an earnings report where money can get behind and see the turnaround. Instead, it disappointed with recent earnings reports (an understatement) and is firmly in the penalty box. Does it make it out? I believe so, but it has not shown it yet. I do believe this next earnings report will show signs of improvement that will start some momentum back up.

    The market is full of companies trading at pennies and have rebounded. It is also true that there are far more trading in pennies that go bust. SPDC has the time and I believe business model to make it work. I guess we will just see. But this is not your run of the mill .20/share stock. One can make a very reasonable case for its survival and appreciation in share price.

    Also, there has been no delay in earnings reports. Not sure where you get that one from at all. It is a 3/31 fiscal year company.

  • cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 29, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    I am hardly young as well and actually experienced in many of these matters involving spdc. I will just leave it at that. Of course anything could be going on. However, you always need to read the entire document. In the amendment for the $5MM, a condition was that spdc was not in default under the lender covenants BEFORE and AFTER the amendment. This means that spdc was in compliance with the ebitda covenants and other covenants as they were funded the $2MM from the amendment. The other debt covenants were also in compliance.

    What people don't realize is that ecommerce uses cash upfront. Then benefits of ecommerce come after a site is up and running and generating revenue. Prior to such time the provider uses cash. My guess is this is the reason spdc is using cash right now and why the lenders are willing to fund more as the revenues will start flowing later in 2015 and beyond.

    Also, Conway MacKenzie was engaged in mid May, well before these amendments and any talk of BK or otherwise. They were brought in to facilitate the integration of Fifth Gear and effectively assist in a turnaround. Some have pointed out what Conway does in a BK or reorganization. What they intentionally omit is what Conway does for turnaround and integration M&A clients. I believe SPDC falls into this category at this time. Somewhat confirmed with Willis' statements in mid June about the progress being made integrating Fifth Gear and expense savings.

    A message board has all sorts of people with agendas. Good, bad, indifferent. My advice is read the company filings. Read the entire amendments. There are nuggets in there to help you understand what is going on. Per the 5th Amendment, SPDC was not in default under the credit agreement BEFORE it became effective and AFTER it was funded.

    SPDC is not going BK given the relatively low level of cash required for principal payments over the next 6-12 months. It has time to execute.

  • Lenders step up again with a $5MM additional term loan commitment, for which $2MM has been funded and another $3MM available upon request between August 15 and December 23. Company is also working with turnaround specialist Conway MacKenzie. Seems good for a company trading at .20/share. Lenders are not in the business of giving away monies if BK is near,

  • Reply to

    Ebay Enterprise

    by two4volleyball Jul 18, 2015 12:33 AM
    cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 18, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Don't talk too much. The trading and price right now has little bearing to ultimate valuation. The EBay sale is another indicator valuation is much higher than current prices indicate. In the meantime pick up shares as you desire for nice gains later this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • cliffbanger86 cliffbanger86 Jul 8, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    It is a positive if you read the terms of the amendment. There are no defaults either prior to or subsequent to entering into the amendment. Lenders do not agree to add accrued interest to principal unless they were very comfortable on getting paid. Credit Committees have other ways to accomplish the goal of giving the borrower additional liquidity.

    This is also favorable to SPDC investors as it staves off any need to issue additional equity through the busier winter season as the interest saved can be used for operational purposes. SPDC is set up to perform very well in the holiday season as compared to last year.

    Sentiment: Buy

COLM
62.21+1.43(+2.35%)Sep 3 4:00 PMEDT