Yup. Goldman Sachs suppressed the market for the shares by various deliberate actions, manipulatively suppressed the shareprice by cancelling the dividend through writing self-serving restrictive covenants into loans it itself made to the company which it ultimately owns and controls through a tangled web of subsidiaries, "went dark" illegally (because there were more than 500 public shareholders) and meanwhile was secretly redeeming the shares on the cheap. What part of this conduct do they think a jury of ordinary Christian folk in Tennessee iis going to condone?? They must think they're " Too Big To Jail" !
The shareprice moves in the direction of that price which makes the total value of all expiring options a minimum. The price which does thatfor Nov 1 options is $43.
It is lower than the shareprice today because there are far fewer puts above $52 than there are calls below $52. So a lower price reduces the value of the calls faster than it increases the value of the puts. So despite going up today, Max Pain suggests a correction will occur before the close in Friday.
However, the new option trade is so great that Max Pain needs to be recalculated every day.
I hate short sellers that write major bashing pieces after shorting the stock. It's as bad as pump and dump, but in reverse.
So I looked for evdiecne that Muddy Waters was wrong.
In particular I looked for eveidence that "Sony-Ericsson's phones" come with built in NQ anti virus. Of course Sony Ericsson doesn't exist anymore so I looked at Sony, Nokia, Samsung. No mention of NQ was found on any of their websites. Not even in the App lists.
I anybody else has done DD and found ANYTHING not originating from NQ that points to NQ having a legitimate business, please post it.
So, comparing with the actuals released, waht happened?
Basically their cost of revenue and all other costs have risen faster than revenue, so they have falled short badly. I would at this point take the CEOs warning of "irrational exuberance" seriously and GET THE HELL OUT
Carl Icahn was right, at least in the short term of a couple of years or so.
-780187 COST OF REVENUE
-94277 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
82412 OPERATING INCOME
-10000 INTEREST EXPENSE
0 OTHER INCOME/(COSTS)
0 LOSS ON EXTINGUISHMENT OF DEBT
72412 INCOME BEFORE TAXES
27001 PROVISION FOR INCOME TAXES
45411 NET INCOME
$0.75 EARNINGS PER SHARE
If, when published, results fall significantly short of this, then the huge multiples are unjustified and the shares will tank.
Neither of them are fools. It's just a way to get money to his son.
Think of it: The son makes a non-taxable profit on the bet and Icahn makes a tax deductible loss.
It's not trading between related persons because it goes into a fund that is merely "managed" by his son.
I am amazed Icahn held on for so long. The PPS, P/E and P/E/G ratios are all at nosebleed heights.
P/E of 412(backlooking) 84(forwardlooking). Good would be 16
PEG ratio 8 It should be less than 2
Share price 17 x book value!! It should be less than 2
No wonder the short interest is so high (16% of the shares outstanding).
I would imagine Einhorn of Greenlight Capital either has or would be thinking of taking a short position here,
because this looks like a way better short than Green Mountain Coffeee Grinders
The fact that March $11 calls can be sold at $0.35 means somebody thinks there is a non-zero chance that HSOL will hit $11 in March. How high is that probability? Well, here is how I figure it.
The efficient market principle requires that, if you bought the calls of an infinite number of like but uncorrelated stocks, you would end up breaking even. That is, you would make 11.00 - 5.57 on those that hit $11 for a cost of $0.35 on all of them.. So the proportion that hit $11 is simply 0.35/(11-6.67) = 6.4% in order that you would break even.
That is the implied probability that a stock like HSOL will hit $11 sometime between now and March is 6.4%
Doing the same calculation for other strike prices gives
March $10 calls: Implied probability of HSOL hitting $10 by March is 9%
March $9 calls:..............................................................................................16%
March $8 calls:..............................................................................................29%
and so forth.
Good luck longs
Agree with $7 - $8 short term. My basis is around $5 in two accounts and $10.50 in another. I placed march covered calls in the first two accounts at $7 and $8 respectively. If they go, I won't lament that nice capital gain of over 50%. If my calls expire, I keep the premiums and I keep the shares to ride them higher.
The short interest is indeed the highest ever - but so is the daily volume. So the days-to-cover is the lowest ever. Still, this looks good for longs, net.
I like the high volume because it means that the average net basis of shareholders is rising with the shareprice, so they are less likely to sell lower than here.
I have held HSOL in three accounts for 2 - 4 years now.
I now have a capital gain in two of them.
Things looked really black at one stage.
Now I see light at the enjd of the tunnel.
Patience pays off.
I could say the same thing about IMH, which I have held for much longer.
NIKE has $5B+ cash.
UA has only $200m+ cash.
Shares are about the same, but UA P/E is 3 times due to much higher rate of growth.
NIKE CEO concedes on TV that their growth rate is enviable