All the best to everyone here. Let us be thankful that we have the monetary means to be making investments and planning on big thanksgiving feasts instead of wondering where our next meal will come from or a roof over our head.
I agree with you on oil. Things just seem to get uglier and uglier with supply/demand. Imagine what will happen when/if China stops its mammoth buying to fill their strategic reserves. Even with that mammoth demand that will at some point stop, there is too much supply. Sadly, the only thing I see stopping the oil slump is world war 3 breaking out which I think will happen at some point if Russia gets too frustrated with SA. Tensions are rising, and it would not surprise me if Russia started blowing some stuff up (likely through a proxy so they can officially deny it was them). As it is, they are doing their best to blow up any and all ISIS oil transport to try to stem that illegal flow that is sold at well below market prices.
Gold/silver also seem down in the dumps, but I would not be inclined to sell any that I had already purchased since it is insurance of sorts. Also, where did you read that Chinese are selling it in order to buy stocks? That seems weird given their culture, not to mention the fact that huge drop in their equity markets likely spooked many who even thought about gambling with their life savings. Also, there has been a lot of demand for gold even as all the doomsayers pen article after article saying RIP gold. Central banks for Russia/China continue to gorge on it.
Shares may stabalize here between $4.50 - $5, but management has lost all trust from investors. It seems like they jump from one mishap to another. Crazy.
I've been reading a lot of articles from coloradowealthmanagement over at Seeking Alpha. He seems to have a solid grasp of all the moving parts with the mortgage REITs, and I actually learned a few things by reading them. I know he has written about ORC quite a bit.
Hope you have a nice extended weekend hanakookie. I appreciate the thought and knowledge you put into your blurbs. You have some good insight into the 'nuts and bolts' of this space.
True but if solvency becomes an issue, it does not matter whether there is 100 million shares of common or 1 million shares of common. Wasting precious money buying back common when solvency is an issue just seems crazy to me.
Just the perception of some major conflicts seems to drive the spot price up, even if it is mostly psychological. My pipeline energy holdings got a big boost today, up 5-7%. I was actually hoping they would drop more before the year was done, as I had several low ball limit orders in place to double my positions in them heading into 2016.
I believe MDLY traded ex-div today, thus the $0.20 discrepency. Date of record is 27th, but stock goes ex-div 3 days prior.
Seems that floor near $11.50 is decently strong. NRZ has bounced off of it a few times now. I think buying under $12 will end up being the same great opportunity that buying under $6 was (pre-split) when NRZ was just spun-off and scuffled around for a long while before making a very strong move up.
Given that Brazil appears to be in full on implode mode right now, it might be some time yet before S. America gets its act together.
Man, I sure hope today is just another head fake and not the start of the real come back. Got a limit order below $40 that still needs to be filled. C'mon tax loss sellers...I know you're still out there!
If anything, buy back the bonds should the discount get big enough. Unlike common and preferred, the senior debt *has* to be redeemed in full at some point or rolled over (if possible) into a later maturity. If Frangou has the chance to redeem some early at 50 cents on the dollar, it might be worthwhile. Buying back preferred at $7 or common below $1 makes a lot less sense to me.
You left out the greatest disparity of them all. Japanese sovereign debt is trading near 0% for 10yr even as Japan has debt to GDP of around 240% and climbing by the day.
I've been patiently holding onto SJB for the past 4-5 months now, like watching paint dry really. Up a bit on it, and I think the next 4-5 months could get real interesting in the distressed junk debt space.