Actually I do think $9.30 is close to the end. If I'm wrong, then so be it. I'm buying here and expect this to be a profitable trade.
Your logic is backward. Companies don't adjust dividends because the stock price is too low. If NRZ can afford to pay the dividend then they will pay it, simple as that. Usually the stock price will adjust to the dividend of a REIT, not the other way around.
Yeah, he was the fellow bragging about buying 350,000 shares of MTGE, heh. Everybody is a genius and a billionaire on the internet. ;-) In fact, I am typing this message from my sattelite connection on my mega yacht, but only after buying another 500,000 shares of FSC.
Why buy SLV which has the same iffy downside as GLD? I think buying a fund like PSLV or CEF would be better. CEF is trading at a large discount to NAV, has been around forever and has a low maintenance fee. Holds 60% gold and 40% silver roughly. Only downside to it is it is classified as a PFIC so best to only buy it in an IRA for tax reasons.
The more the shars dip towards $9, the more I hope they do in fact go ahead with the share buy back. I know how it looks to do a SPO at $10.40 and then buy shares back a month later at $9.10....yet, it makes a lot of sense. Small comfort to those who took part in the SPO, but a benefit for the company long term.
what are you talking about fraurelliosbourne (wow that is a mouthfull!)? Nowhere in the earnings report and last conference call did they so much as hint at any dividend cut. In fact, there could be a small bonus dividend coming in addition to the expected $0.17 announcement.
If a blue chip REIT like HCP is yielding 10% in your scenario, that would imply that the 10y treasury rate is yielding around 7.5% which would mean total bedlam and carnage in the entire stocks market. The whole market would correct 50% and likely the US government would be in big trouble in paying the interest on their debt obligations thus printing a lot which would cause the beginning of the $US implosion. Could that happen within the next 6 months? I guess, but if that is all true, one would be better shorting the heck out of the entire market and not just focusing on one blue chip REIT.
I think patience is key...probably lots of tax loss selling on FSC for the month of December. I have set some modest sized lots of limit order buys in $0.10 increments all the way down to $9 just in case it gets that oversold short term.
I bought a Win8 cheapo laptop several months back. I feel I'm a pretty decent tech adapter and all that. Win8 just kind of sucks IMO when it is not being used in a touch screen environment. For the price I paid, I'm still content as it works okay, just nowhere near as easy to use as Win XP or 7. My mom would not figure out Win8 at all, ha ha.
I just took advantage of a black friday special to buy a souped up gaming PC to replace my aging one. This time I took care to make sure I was getting it with Win7 and not Win8. That's the nice thing about shopping with the boutique PC vendors, you can pick each part of the PC custom to get exactly what you want.
Agree, hope everyone at this great discussion board can enjoy a safe and sane holiday season! I plan on drinking lots of Stone IPA to get through it all, LOL. Drinking one right now in fact! :-)
Took advantage of a special to replace my aging PC of almost 6 years with a spiffy high powered new one sporting an Intel i7 processor and nvidia GTX 780 graphics card and 32GB ddr3 ram. Hope to be gaming with this for the next 6 years. Merry xmas to me! :0) Wish all Intel bulls a happy holiday season. 2014 could have a lot to look forward to!
yes, I agree, some good discussion and analysis of the situation both present and looking forward. Thanks to all for taking the time to share their thoughts.
It's just the ebb and flow of the markets gordon939. Sectors go into favor, sectors go out of favor. Seems to be a lot of potential money running for the hills on the 'supposed' 1st half 2014 taper. Maybe some money getting frustrated that REITs are not going up 1% per day like Amazon or Facebook. Who knows. Whether HCP trades at $37 yielding 5.5% or $27 yielding much better, I think it offers good value looking long term. I just try to keep a certain amount of cash ready to jump in and double my position in companies that really seem to be oversold in a bad way. I'm starting to get that itch with HCP/HCN/VTR, etc. I'm holding off though to see what December brings. Another 5% down and I will jump in.
The increase in short selling from a year ago is amazing, especially so given the stock is up by $3 during that year. I would love the opportunity to hear from one of the large short sellers of NRF to find out what exactly they find so compelling about this trade. REITs have been taking it in the shorts this month in general, but NRF is hanging tough. I bet they wish they were short DLR or HCN instead, heh.
For a while I pricing NRZ in comparison of HLSS. However the market seems to be pricing NRZ in comparison with a stock like PMT.
I spent a summer working at Burger King and another summer working at McDonalds, each summer earning minimum wage. Of course, I was only 16 years old. The fact that decent manufacturing jobs are gone for good has zero relevance on how the free market looks at fast food jobs. They were never meant to support a family back when I was working them 25 years ago, and the same is true today. Instead of venting all your ire at companies that are actually still keeping people employed (even at minimum wage), why not vent your ire at those companies that are moving all their labor force outside the USA.
There will come a time when the fast food industry will say the heck with it and look to automate most of the current jobs away through technology. The more the unions and politicians agitate the industry, the faster that will happen. The current fast food workforce should be thinking about that. Then you really will have something to complain about bhenning32 as you will be unemployed and completely at the mercy of society like your fast food worker brethren.
One last point that the constant bashers never seem to realize, is that only a portion of the McDonalds in existence are actually owned by McDonalds the corporation. Most franchises are owned/operated by individuals. So you really are asking them to shoulder the 50% pay raise for all the employees and not the corporation. Given the small margins McDonalds franchises operate on, that will no doubt make those owners very unhappy as their usual yearly profit quickly plummets 90%. In essence, they are the owners and have taken all the financial risk, yet now they are making the same 'wage' their employees are making. In liberal world I guess that seems very fair, ha ha ha. Punish the risk takers, reward the sheeple.
Both should do well long term IMO. I also own both, but a lot more HCN than SNH. SNH seems to trade at a constant higher yielding risk factor due to their size and also the choice of managing partner for the properties. I do like though how little of revenue they generate from medicare/medicaid. I like how diversified REITs like HCN and HCP are. If I had more money to put into one today, I think I would choose HCN.
beauzeau23, can you not see where your flaw in reasoning is by now? People are ridiculing you not because of your reduced dividend guess (we all have been expecting one from two months ago). People are ridiculing you because your estimate of FSC shares trading at $7 deserves it! No way in heck that ever comes close to happening. I would be quite shocked if FSC traded below $9 on this news that was mostly already baked in. My guess is a dip no lower than $9.50, then back up a bit to around NAV.