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Sprott Physical Silver Trust ET (PSLV) Message Board

clrodrick 458 posts  |  Last Activity: 26 minutes ago Member since: Dec 2, 2005
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  • Reply to

    loco

    by lylewalendy 8 hours ago
    clrodrick clrodrick 26 minutes ago Flag

    Agreed, Pollo Loco shares size with other fast foods like McDonalds. Also, doubt Pollo Loco will take off. This is the same company that came oh so close to going the way of Boston Market and Koo Koo Roo. It boggles my mind the way investors are all of a sudden calling it the next Chipotle. Crazy times we live in, or should I say LOCO times we live in. :-)

  • Is this the same El Pollo Loco that almost went the way of Boston Market and Koo Koo Roo? As of today, I'm ringing the market top bell for LOCO. This is a joke that people would buy this stock like it is the next Chipotle.

  • clrodrick clrodrick 1 hour 45 minutes ago Flag

    A number of good points made in this thread. Good discussion.

  • clrodrick clrodrick 23 hours ago Flag

    I'm underwhelmed as well. Expected better. AUY remains a hold for now.

  • clrodrick by clrodrick Jul 30, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    After looking at the earnings, I think Valero offers value here at $50. Stock got so oversold given the news about the light condensate exports and narrowing spread between WTI/Brent. Their latest earnings prove to me that Valero is a large, diversified business with good management that can navigate future obstacles. I also think Brent is due to rise again as the global conflicts inevitably gain traction on energy costs. I was more bullish on Marathon Petroleum before, but now I like Valero better. Still own both though. Only thing stopping these two companies is a recession. If so, guess I'll be buying more on the dips.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Jul 30, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    TWTR is like a lot of companies, playing accounting games with earnings to hide the skeletons. Hiding away the GAAP ugly and highlighting the non-GAAP pretty where they can take away and add one time special issues and spread unicorn fairy dust on it all.

    I don't know what to say about LOCO...except that the price is indeed LOCO! No way should this company be valued that rich. People are expecting growth and revenue of LOCO to compare to Chipotle? Umm, no way Jose. The last time LOCO tried to expand with aggression, they almost turned out to be another Boston Market or Koo Koo Roo. This stock will crater at some point IMO as reality catches up to fantasy.

    T/VZ and other telecom went up a lot due to Windstream spinning off a portion of their assets into a REIT for tax reasons. Analysts see a lot of value being unlocked for other telecoms to do the same. Shares are being repriced for that likelihood.

  • Reply to

    agnc

    by frigator Jul 30, 2014 12:01 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 30, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I like AGNC and hybrid sister, MTGE. The only cause for concern is how volatile and uncertain the current interest rate environment is. Nobody seems to know what the heck is going on. I'm pretty sure the Fed has little clue either. I think they'd like to raise rates but are afraid of the repercussions. We are in such a weird place right now. I feel interest rates could jack up a full percent just like that in one scenario or plunge even more in a different scenario. It's hard for an mREIT to hedge for such sharp short term moves I think. They like slow and steady interest rate environments.

  • Someone on a different forum clued me into the fact that RSO did another securitization lately. I had sold my shares last year since it seemed at the time that RSO was not going to have the AFFO to support the dividend. Now though they may have turned the corner. Still bears watching, but yielding 13+% right now, and are forecasting quarterly AFFO in the $0.26 to $0.27 range for Q3 and Q4. If (and it is a big if given Jonathon Cohen's history of over promising and under delivering) they meet that guidance, the current $0.80/year dividend looks quite safe and could even start growing again. As it is, yielding almost 14% is not bad. The risk/reward on this seems fairly good to me.

  • Reply to

    LNCO......bought for both accounts...

    by keltus1952 Jul 29, 2014 1:22 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    I like LNCO as well, have been holding it over a year now I think since the Hedgeye analyst attack drove the price of LINE/LNCO down so much. One thing to consider with LNCO though is that at some point it's distribution will lag LINE's a bit due to tax issues. That probably won't be an issue for another year or two though.

  • Reply to

    Bought GM

    by frigator Jul 29, 2014 11:26 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    GILD is golden. I don't understand why it isn't over $100 on all the news. I'm overweight it also.

    Regarding GM, are you worried at all about the bubble in subprime auto loans right now? I think one reason GM and Ford have such great sales numbers this year is how relaxed credit has gotten, plus it is now industry standard to issue loans with 72, 84, even 96 month terms. I find that crazy, but they are doing what it takes (for now) to get people in cars. I could be very wrong, but I don't see 2015 being as rosy as analysts. You seem to have your finger on the pulse of these cyclical stocks much better than I do however frigator. I admit, when it comes to planes, trains, and automobiles, it is out of my bailiwick.

  • Reply to

    OXLC is a buy

    by thewisejman Jul 29, 2014 1:53 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    I need to read up more on this one. There was an interesting S.A. blog about OXLC and the kind of unique BDC it was.

  • Reply to

    Just want to say THANKS!

    by thess3120 Jul 29, 2014 11:19 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    Some don't like how many non FSC focused threads there are, but I feel the opposite. Like you, I gain a lot of insight from learning about varied income investments out there and the appropriate price points to target. I've definitely gained some good ideas. One of them is AI which just reported good earning today and whose dividends are all classified as qualified. That one is a keeper in my taxable account.

    I haven't seen sonnenwayne around here lately. It's a shame, as he always had interesting insight into investments.

  • Reply to

    TCPC SPO

    by clrodrick Jul 28, 2014 6:29 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    I agree, they regularly deliver on earnings. Book value keeps raising. Definitely a BDC worth owning. I bought more today right at market open at $17.20

  • Reply to

    NRZ

    by thewisejman Jul 29, 2014 10:43 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    When did NRZ ever yield 13%? If you look at the trading pattern with NRZ since the spin-off from NCT, every time it trends towards $6, it bounces back towards $6.5

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!!

    by asstsecretary Jul 29, 2014 5:23 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    nice! wonder why the after hours trading is so blah about the earnings?

  • Reply to

    i can only see the spread getting wider

    by thegreatone561 Jul 29, 2014 4:05 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Any particular reason why you think that? Or are you just throwing it out there. I can point to an opposite example of a spread decreasing (EEQ/EEP). Bottom line is every situation is different, and nobody can predict the future.

  • Reply to

    gonna dive after tomorrow

    by abcrny Jul 29, 2014 11:11 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    They would not have raised the current distribution by 10% unless they were confident that the future distributable cash flow could handle it. I don't think earnings will suck. However, I think PSXP was priced to beyond perfection at $79, and now today at $64 they are priced a bit below perfection. Still pricey, but given the bright future of PSX and the potential drop downs in store, I could understand why many would buy PSXP today.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by jbcguy Jul 28, 2014 10:29 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    I think the entire Cohen family has that same problem, and the investments they run suffer for it by trading below fair value.

  • Reply to

    First red day since July 17?

    by coochy.cooty Jul 29, 2014 3:06 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Also noticed the GP was down today after making quite the surge towards $50. Wish I had bought some when it was tanking at $40 in retrospect. Pays out a nice yield for a GP.

  • Reply to

    14Q2 Earnings & Guidance

    by alexalekhine Jul 29, 2014 10:38 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 29, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Man this REIT was cheap at $11.80. Shame they had to dilute at $12, but it is best to look at the future of ARCP instead of dwelling on the past.

PSLV
8.16-0.06(-0.73%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT

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