Also their debt load is rather high, which is not unusual for an energy infrastructure company. The worry though is that should panic continue to grow in the energy space, credit might be frozen for most all energy companies, even the big boys ala 2008. Don't get me wrong, I'm a buyer of OKE also below $50, I think the risk/reward is decent for the big players now.
I know I sound like a broken record, but I think AUY is shaping up to have a nice 2015. Bought back in a few days ago, giving it another shot.
How many times has the Fed jawbones the market higher only to see all the exuberance slowly fizzle away. I don't think this time will be any different. I don't see earnings increasing all that much on average, and I don't see the market multiple getting too frothier.
From what I've read, most floaters need Fed to raise rates at least 1 to 1 1/2% for it to have a positive effect on their bottom line. Any raise below that likely costs them more money than helps them.
Problem with ASEs is even those have ridiculous markups, as much as $4+/oz. Last time I bought some silver I just bought generic, figured silver was silver in the end. Of course, even generic will have a $1.90 mark up these days.
This rally came a day too early for me. I had just gotten around to putting in a limit order last night for a few beaten down names like ARCC, TCPC, and so on. Woke up this morning to find out each and every one gapped up over my limit bid and took off from there. Yet again I'm left high and dry.
slicktop is right that SA has one of the lowest extraction costs. I think their average is higher than $6 (around $20 now?), but their lowest cost fields still are churning out oil for chump change. Their government though spends so much money on citizen entitlements, they need around $90/barrel to run a balanced budget. They have enough cash on hand to hold firm on production for about 5 years even if oil goes to $40. That is a strong hand they are holding! Most other OPEC nations are not close to being able to do that.
So you are right, nothing is permanent in this world. SA says they are willing to have oil go as low as needed for up to 5 years, but most analysts think the main market players will break after about 12-18 months of this. Either war will break out, or some other kind of unrest. I'm sure some type of terror attack will be headed Saudi Arabia's way by Russia or Iran perhaps.
I used to own a lot of REITs, but this year I've been methodically lightening up on that asset class. Very recently sold both O and VTR on the pop up. Sold my one and only mREIT AI as well. Only REITs I have left is a bit of HCP and a slug of NRF. Also own NRZ which is more of a specialized REIT. I'm hoping for another interest rate tantrum to get renewed buying opportunities.
The internet poster using bobdus changes message board avatars the way runway models change outfits. In other words, quite frequently! It's not too hard to spot his new avatar though. Just look for the poster who seems to always have decent insight and instincts and a solid grasp of financial accounting.
I used to own ARP but sold it a few months ago and switched to the GP ATLS instead. The reason I did is due to the ATLS buyout by TRGP. TRGP is buying out the midstream assets Atlas owned but not the upstream. When the deal is closed, Atlas will spin off the general partner for the upstream assets. I could be wrong, but in my view this will lead to a lot of uncertainty as to the future of ARP. Will this newly formed (and much weaker) parent of ARP be able to support growth? There are a lot of unanswered questions in my mind about all this.
When looking at ATLS though, it is moving up/down roughly in line with TRGP since each ATLS unit gets around 0.18 shares of TRGO plus cash. For awhile though, the market was valuing the spin off of the general partner to ARP at close to $0, even though it was paying distributions of around $1.20. In the end, who knows how it will all shake out. Just throwing out my 2 cents.
I was quite surprised to see it dip all the way to $8.50 today before rallying back to $9. Ex-div today, but that fall was crazy especially on such a bullish market day. I bought some around $9 which seems like a good deal to me, but who knows anymore with these BDCs. PFLT also is below $13 now.
I don't think oil has bottomed yet. Saudi Arabia seems pretty intent to me of being perfectly happy to see Brent slide all the way to $50, so I expect that to happen. That would put WTI somewhere around $46 or so. I think energy across the board is seeing a dead cat bounce today, and a strong one at that! I could be a bit biased I guess since I still have a lot of cash to spend and was hoping to get much lower prices for the stocks I am targeting. MEMP at $10 anyone? :-) MMP at $65? :-)) PAGP at $19? :-)))
Man, after another big day for LNCO, I did sell half. Not sure I've ever bought anything before that went up 35% in two days, ha ha. With volatility like this, best to buy the dips and sell the rips.
After a 35% run up in just two days, I would personally hold off buying. I have a feeling a lot of these big pops in energy producers will be short lived. Oil is likely to revert back to its daily grind lower towards $50 in my opinion. I sold my LNCO shares after this pop but will buy back in should it go back below $10.
Metal commodity prices/demand still seem to be so heavily reliant on China, and the things I read on China make it seem they are having quite a bit of issues with bad debts and over capacity in their manufacturing sector. I think you're smart for sticking with the big boys though that can ride out the storm.
Pretty good timing on that buy! I think I broke a personal record myself. Bought some LNCO at $8.85 and then sold it two days later for around a 33% gain. Wish I could have such good timing with all my investments.
I had quite a bit invested in an mREIT (AI) and also decided now was a good time to get out while the getting is good.
I'm shocked that PNNT traded below $9 today. I bought some, seems like a good deal. I think an investor who holds any BDC lately needs to have some patience. I expect prices across the board to rebound in 2015 unless debt defaults become a big issue.