I bought into RSO recently, but closer to $5.50. Mulling over whether I want to buy a bit more under $5.4. Not sure if it's just a Cohen thing or what as to why the market insists it trade at a significantly higher yield than its peers. I'm not sure about a dividend cut either. AFFO looks to be at either $0.19 or $0.20 the rest of the year. Cohens like to over promise, so I'm resigned to it being at $0.19 most likely, heh. Even if they do cut the dividend though, the yield would still be higher than it should.
I see your point about being small leading to increased risk of a loan default really doing damage. But I think being small has its advantages also. I believe PSEC might finally be suffering from being so large. Bigger you are, the harder it is to grow. LINE suffers from this also, being bigger than most all the other upstream MLPs combined. At that size, you have to do some very big deals to move the needle, and if one of those big deals goes south you are really staring over a cliff. It can be very difficult to keep finding a way to grow the current dividend/distribution when you are that big. And since PSEC seems determined to keep growing the dividend (even at the glacially slow pace they are), at some point they will be staring over that cliff.
I was over at the wedge the other day to take in the sights (I don't surf). Holy moly, the swells were indeed as big as the forecast claimed they would be. Insane. Be careful!
I think phoenix is more right than many people realize. Spot oil price going down is more harmful to Russia than any sanction. Is it a coincidence that spec positions in the future market have been sold off at a rapid pace, thus causing the price to drop?
Also, is it coincidence that none other than Joe Biden's son (Hunter Biden) is out of the blue named as a board member for a Ukraine's largest private gas firm? Kind of funny how the main street media has ignored this little tidbit. But put the pieces together, and it's clear that the USA and EU have plans for Ukraine and hope to turn it into the EUkraine, heh.
Kind of funny that Kaiser is just now causing a stir at the VNR message board. He's been needling VNR for quite some time on his twitter feed, as coochy points out from time to time. Frankly, this might be the one time that he is (a bit) on point. VNR has been a disappointment this entire year on the earnings and distribution coverage front. Why VNR still trades at a 8.5% yield while it's peers trade at a 9-11% yield is beyond me.
If the market dumps by 20% or more, hold onto your hat, as REITs and other high yielders like MLPs and BDCs will get hammered as well.
Good discussion on fees here. I agree that a lot of BDCs will inevitably blow up due to a combination of a good economy turning bad, fierce competition amongst lenders to make loans and get a good rate of return (thus better deals for borrowers than normal), and the whole external managed versus internal managed.
I've gotten a heck of a lot more cautious recently in the BDCs I hold. I like both MAIN and HTGC (both internally managed and lowerst management fees in the industry). It is no surprise that both command such a premium to NAV. Not saying either are great buys right now, but I do believe these two will be amongst the survivors during the next credit blowup, whenever that may be.
MCC management has given me no reason to not trust the moves they are making. I'll continue to give them the benefit of the doubt until they prove otherwise. As an example of a management team I no longer trust, take a looksie at FSC and FSFR. I think all of us need to keep a sharp eye each quarter on NII versus divident being paid out. Once I see a trend where NII starts shrinking for any reason (like with ARCC and PSEC), I get out as quick as possible.
So I like BDCs like MCC, NMFC, TCPC, FSIC that may not be in the lowerst fee group with MAIN and HTGC, but they all sport a current NII that exceeds the dividend. I don't think any BDC can really be a long term holding, as things can change very quickly. That is why it definitely pays off to pay attention to each earnings and keep a close eye on NII.
Seeking Alpha is like Motley Fool. A lot of worthless blogs/content that seem self serving, but they also have a handful of authors that offer a nice service. BDC BUZZ is one of the good guys in my opinion.
POT and MOS were a good buy back when the potash cartel broke up over a year ago, and the two main combatants Uralkali and Belaruskali were talking heavy rhetoric about leading a price war. Since I sold out I haven't followed them all that closely, although I do see they are both above where I sold them. I liked that Mosaic had a lot of cash on hand to buy back a ton of shares, most from the Cargill trusts. I felt that would be a good catalyst for them, especially since the buy backs were more or less scheduled to occur right when the stock price was still relatively weak.
“The Tick readings I am seeing (-1100 and -1200) is like an accelerator on the floor that is pressed for an indefinite amount of time,” Cook says. “Eventually the motor will run out of gas.
The only problem with the above theory is the entities pushing the accelerator to the floor are the central banks, and they have an unlimited amount of gasoline to power the motor using QE and fiat creation, not to mention driving interest rates all the way into negative territory.
You may be on to something there. Just so happens that for the month of August, two of the biggest QE POMO Fed days were Monday and Tuesday I think? So will be interesting to see how the rest of the week goes. Also I think the day after Labor day marked the market top last go around? Need to research that further.
Considers the original poster was lamenting how hard it was to get a decent monthly income off investments thanks to the Feds ZIRP, rbgambler99 was just offering a few suggestions to look at to create decent income flow. Who peed in your cheerios today?
Jeffrey Gundlach would agree with you. He called for 10-year rates to drop to or below 2% quite a while back while most everybody else was obsessing over rising rates. I agree with both you and him as both the EU and USA turn into Japan.
You benefit from 20/20 hindsight hgl1269. Not to be overly argumentative, but my post focused more on issues facing ARCC moving forward than the actual spot share price. Even though share price has recovered 3.5% (as the overall market keeps going up as well), the issues facing ARCC have not gone away. I sold and don't regret it. Put my money in TCPC instead after they announced a SPO. Good luck to you.
I hear you fracmonk. Dealing with SPOs where the shares you thought were fairly valued all of a sudden drop by 8% is a tough pill to swallow. That is the case though with owning BDCs, REITs, or MLPs. The best of the bunch almost always bounce back relatively quick. I expressed similar frustration recently when TCPC did a SPO and the stock dropped 5% and then refused to come back at all until just lately. Even then, it is still trading below where it was before the dilution.