Very observant. Funds have played into this by pseud-rallying alongside of CVS SELLOFF. Chart shows a $5 bulge susceptible that could be picked up early on short-play. Been shorting CVS but getting crowded out. Remember that a short play has to be tempered against a RAD merger run up of 8-10%. Nice call
CVS admits the AET merger will end CVS/AET deal. If FED leaves and that too is likely, CVS WILL LOSE 90% percent to its book. 75% is already gone by 2019. Look up the AET merger and you will see both sides know Caremark is out the door. THIS IS WHY CVS HAS DROPPED about .75 a day since this data leaked. It is also why CVS has been down 90% of the time since mid May and has not had an UP day in two weeks. GS says that what is happening now to CVS ACTUALLY HAPPENED TO MEDCO--AND MEDCO BLEW UP. I agree that a slow bleed to $80 and then a fast drop to low $70s is not only doable but near guaranteed. CVS WILL LIKELY TRY TO MAKE A DEAL WITH ESRX. The ESRX PBM BOOK IS VERY DIFFERENT THAN ALL OTHER PBM BOOKS. Caremark is not broken, it is a dead entity on life support. BELIEVE IT. The 104 call is merely put out there to allow funds to sneak out the back. In a 200+ market CVS WAS THE BIGGEST FORTUNE 100 LOSER. IT HAS A RED STREAK WORSE THAN ANY PBM IN THE HISTORY OF THE INDUSTRY...AND COUNTING.
To add to discussion, look for feelers combining CVS and ESRX to bolster loss of Caremark accounts and remedy ESRX stand alone PBM
And maybe there will be an intellectual exchange
CVS LOST about 15-20% of its biz with loss of calPERS/GE. Yes, the FED loss would mean another 15-20%. WAKE UP YOU TWO: CVS Aetna deal ends in 2019. THIS IS 50% OF Caremark's biz. . FIFTY PERCENT!!! IT WILL NOT BE RENEWED AFTER 2019 WHEN AETNA MERGES WITH HUMANA, THE LATTER HAS AN IN HOUSE PBM LIKE UNH DID. The CVS/AET DEAL ENDS IN 2019. Caremark could lose 90% of its current business in a blink since in 2019, at least 70% will be gone-guaranteed. This makes CVS a $50 stock maybe. This is why funds are leaving. NOW YOU TWO, go do your research and look up "CVS THREATENED BY AET-HUMANA MERGER." Look at the date the merger was announced. Look at the POSTED NEWS WARNINGS that Caremark could blow up just like Medco did when United Healthcare walked on it! This is why funds are lightening the load. CAREMARK IS A DEAD COMPANY WALKING AND IT IS NOT JUST POSSIBLE. Now be two big boys AND LOOK IT UP. It is all over the net if you two would just #$%$ and do diligence. Shorts are loading up. The buyback will expire.
By keen acquisitions, WBA OWNS ALLIANCE STRENGTH, NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY
Internationally, CVS IS BLOCKED FROM MAJOR MARKETS
The front end store loss as more than triple what CVS expected and now comes RAD, an urbanized east coast tobacco magnet and with Walgreens buying clout, in URBAN areas where CVS is going head to head with CVS, both retail and overlapping PBM business will be severely hurt.
WBA on merger approval will rocket past a sinking CVS as Caremark is fatally wounded
well, calPERS is gone and UNH is now a major competitor BIDDING ON FED after getting calPERS. UNH is no longer a "PBM consumer" say bye bye to 30% of CVS business.
Democratic win guarantees serious margin pressures
"May 19, 2016:
ETF’s with exposure to CVS Health Corp.
Here are 5 ETF’s with the largest exposure to CVS-US. Comparing the performance and risk of CVS Health Corp. with the ETF’s that have exposure......"
Maybe this time looking at your source of financial news, Yahoo, would have prevented Fortune-major healthcare's biggest 10 session decline since 2009. A "SELLOFF" is mild compared to 10.65% DROP in that period. And it is not over yet. Did anyone note the enormous short pile on last week? Biggest weekly JUMP since 2009. Did anyone take notice of funds selling into any turn upward last week? At least 3 pundits called specific attention to this pattern of DUMPING as much as possible into any upturn, waiting and continuing. Did anyone do a calc on losing calPERS and impact on forward earnings? Several did and calls showed 7% gross loss added to predictable headwinds comps making CVS as an $80 stock. Just do the math. A loss of the Fed comps in at low $70's at best. Again, just do the math. The funds have comped and they are exiting at all time record pace. Sell into mid $80's and buy back offers nice potential swing profit opportunity. CVS NOT FATALY WOUNDED BUT SERIOUSLY DAMAGED.
aavon0 is bashersuit but this is a reply, regardless, to more of your fluff- that "calPERS WAS ANTICIPATED. Better check CVS' regional facility leases and related term liabilities before you mouth off about "anticipation". Were you even "on conference"?
If you recall, in a prior three year go-round as all once were, MHS maintained in place all unused facilities, etc. and waited out a CVS term. CVS knew ESRX (who now had acquired MHS) was a threat this go-round but also knew its (CVS') ground level costs were far more advantageous in a bidding war. Note that this assumption was correct, ESRX RAN 3RD,!
NO ONE CONTEMPLATED THAT UNH WOULD UNDERCUT WITHOUT GROUND LEVEL ADVANTAGES in making its bid. This is why the possible retention matter was not even a whisper at the last earnings conference.
And when you say "barely noticed" you are obviously relying on Yahoo news...GREAT SOURCE.
THEN YOU GO ABOUT POSTING DATED NEWS ARTICLES AS IF YOU DISCOVERED AMERICA!
I suggest that if you want to be a player on this board, you focus on CVS and NOT HAVE 100 aliases and try to be a MULTIPLE EQUITY EXPERT.
clone is a PITA and we have warred here for 15 years. clone has ripped me to shreds and then spit on my posts. But aside from perhaps an older relationship with you, SHE KNOWS THIS STOCK. Why not use your head, bashersuit, and decipher her posts picking the real info out of her RILKING of you and using CVS as a whipping stick! You slept through her disguised warnings and got nailed. Been there, had that done to me more than a decade ago.
NEVER PROVIDE THIS INFO...HE IS A ROOTER, clone is just a CMX HATER:
TAKE THIS TO THE BANK: THIS IS WHY CVS IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE AS A PEER LEADER:
Headwinds: (1) WBA/RAD creates potential for 4th major PBM; pundits poo-pooed UNH's entry into this arena saying PBM's a two horse race...well, #3 just took the first leg of the Triple Crown (calPERS), and WBA, on acquiring a PBM, will enter the coming Derbies and clearly has the clout to seriously compete for both parts of the FED; (2) Election impact on ACA that CVS has bet a bunch on; (3) UNH different model (insurer/PBM v retail/PBM), is challenging as #2 PBM; (4) loss of tobacco related FRONT END sales in metro areas far more serious than expected and there has been no significant offset; question fumbled at earnings. This faux pas was NEVER contemplated as RAD (an urban dweller, eg northeast) going WBA will take considerable market share when GOING head to head with CVS in those areas AND CVS's PBM ownership advantage will be neutralized; (5) WBA's rebuilt supply chain alliances crush CVS by comparison, (6) CVS' debt structure, though indeed stable, is still at a significant "basis point" disadvantage with peers AND SEVENTH, LIKELY MOST UNDERSTATED is ESRX' questionable "stand alone" model. Concern has been expressed by the funds and institutions as it has had far more severe selling pressure....and that is mounting. ESRX is RELIABLY RUMORED TO HAVE HIRED OUT A MAJOR IB TO FEEL OUT MERGER PARTNER and that "rumbling" is creating desention between already "agreed to merge" insurers as one favors, the other does not! So, look for an ESRX deal down the road, surely before Election Day.
THIS IS INFO...USE IT...Absent calPERS PLUS headwinds and CVS has great risk.
THERE WAS NEWS. clone just fake-closed "her" (first revelation) eyes. That reported news article addressed: "THOSE ETF'S AT RISK BECAUSE OF POSITIONS THEY HAD IN CVS". You sneaky clone, you KNEW then but no one picked up on your comment. basher was rootin
and a breakdown of CVS business plan CONCERN. This means SELLOFF
I have multiple confirmed CVS is being heavily sold and every time the buyback takes "5" the stock drops like lead. I know clone is an xTexas CMXer, dumped there too, but he is no fool and has keen knowledge in trading CVS THROUGH FRIEND. Now just go away clone or I begin to tell more.
Overweight funds and institutions are hedging bet on otherwise strong CVS. Remember Pres. O'Bama's special guest at ACA WIN? Spell CHAIRMAN! $12 billion acquisition all for ACA. Trump becomes more of a "what if" factor by the minute. Not saying he wins, just don't leave too much on table if Hilliary IMPLODES. Stop gloating and play your short game clone. Go away. $70 is impossible. Funds and institutions would screw themselves. Split at $140 next month a better bet. As for you bashersuit, at least man up and stop hiding behind your many board names . So obvious who you are and it makes you look the fool.
I am neither but have a significant knowledge here. The ETF issue has been on the table since the two buck nose dive last week. Virtually all the trading thereafter was by the funds and institutions who had legal knowledge of what was coming...but they traded in light numbers. Today, after the announcement, the gates opened. TEST: the enormous short hedging since. Reason: there is a growing perception, right or wrong, that Trump just might win or make it so close that there will have to be a Democrat move off the ACA mandate and in prescription drug costs for Federal agencies. Guess who holds that potential sandbag and calPERS as well. Other biggies will pressure Caremark too. Ouch is mild. Now, throw into the hopper WBA/RAD approval and many biggies will switch trains, riding WBA and ESRX for 4 years. Wanna talk HEADWIND?