Now that this is playing out as expected, we need to be confirming our re-entry prices, not exit prices.
Will study and come up with scenarios that make more sense than just expressing $15.50 on AG with $15.20 as a lower possibility. But clearly, we are in the midst of that smackdown with Mr. DXY looking to bulk up.
Cleaned out trading positions with minor profits, for the reversal again. Very apprehensive looking at the chart. Silver could drop another buck. $16.50 is tetering, with CDE, EXK and others dropping.
I know. Sounds like flip flopping but must follow the charts.
Do not be surprised if the dollar/gold inverse relationship is broken. Although it's worth watching the DXY, the case and effect are transient.
In the coming days, geo political events can make the dollar rise as well as have a positive impact on PMs. Downed Airplanes can do that. Furthermore, the FED's agenda to try and raise the rate asap,could be de-railed and/or could be consumated, with a brash market reaction, creating more fear, uncertainty and doubt,piling on to PMs. Fundamentals point strongly towards firming PM prices, not that charts care. :)
But $1410 AU is on the horizon if we can get $1310. Sista silva gets to above $18.12 or better.
All this talk is cheap.
Let's see the follow through to confirm.
The charts showed the drop was coming. Reflected $16.50 likely for AG, and as low as $1220 for AU.
Silver dipped below, and was possibly an over reaction. Gold not as bad. Miners reacted as expected into yesterday and today. The dip could have been MUCH worse. In summary, miners dipped early and hard. But they also knew to reverse early. Dip was actually shallow and bodes well for this next move-if it's confirmed...I am long and expecting this to be confirmed. For example,if GDX can rise above $26.25, I would buy all I can for a move up into the mid $30s,and the other miners with it. But, my buy in is "early". GLTA
Not arguing about the many reasons PM should continue their upward trajectory. Just that this message board forum, because of the underlying asset classand it's many side stories,got hijacked and used for other purposes. This is the last post of mine in this thread,as it is not deserving of continuing, as many others aren;t.
If our precious metals do what we expect,more investors will enter this arena again, and the conspiracy germs will disappear. But hey, they have rights too!
Not looking to "butt" in on an OT conversation, as this has little if anything to do with SLW, or Silver, or really anything except the usual conspiracy stuff being bantered about, but;
Deutsche Bank's new depositor CD is NOT offering 5% interest to you! OR hardly anyone for that matter. It's a part of their NRO and NRI program, asking for "new" deposits in the form if re-patriated money,Indian rupees--non-resident rupee accounts. There are conversion implications and depending on whether they are funds that are being re-patriated or not, there could be tax implications to the holder. The bank makes money on these. These stories floating around are half truth-usual BS concocted to make them look like a problem is brewing.
I also want to point out something not in this post but I KNOW you know.
Notice the HOD today when silver was moving up this morning?
Once again, they DIDN'T let it get over $17.44 A PENNY!
Seems to be a lot more complex than anyone can figure out. I am still torn, short term, leaning bearish.Although too strong an adjective. Maybe just awaiting a dip.IMO.
As a silver and gold collector, I repeatedly say, long term, I am bullish and continue to acquire physical in coins and bars. Stocks are another game.
As I said yesterday and day earlier,I am all cash again. The DXY is a temporary concern.Time frame is always difficult, but we could be in for a longer downward move than a week or 2. I hope $16.50 AG holds and I hope $1240 AU holds, but I am leaning now towards expecting a slightly more unexpected dip. I am a buyer under each of those figures for now, but it wouldn't surprise me to see just above $1200 AU and $16.20 AG. WHen this dip is complete (keep your eyes on the extended channel in this head and shoulders we are in), we could/should resume our upward momo, but this time a more parabolic move.
Wish Yehaw would allow posting charts again. ANyway, I would rather buy back in a little early as I am pretty confident in the ultimate direction. To get it right both now and later, is tough, but it provides HUGE leverage in the ultimate returns. But,playing short now is a tough gamble. Nimble is the key word!!!!! GL
Miners,all miners could be affected by the outcome.:
South Africa court to decide Friday on class action suit against gold sector
May 12, 2016
To match Special Report AFRICA/SILICOSISView photos
Former gold miners listen to speakers at a registration meeting in Bizana in South Africa's impoverished Eastern Cape province March 7, 2012. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - A South African court will decide on Friday whether to allow class action suits seeking damages from the gold mining sector on behalf of thousands of miners who contracted tuberculosis and the fatal lung disease silicosis.
The defendants in the case include Harmony Gold, Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti, Sibanye Gold, African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Anglo American, which have formed the Occupational Lung Disease (OLD) Working Group to deal with such issues
Chemaes, BTW, IMHO, although the long term prognosis is extremely bullish, tat mini head and shoulders on silver (and EXK) should allow for a reversal and knock them down in the coming days. I am mostly cash in my trading account now, waiting for the drop in this channel I see. If I'm wrong, I'll pay up, but.........be careful!
Thank you Chemaes, and thanks for your usual on the money, insightful post and reply.
I too am watching DXY and the other relationships you noted. Each point you made is critical to understand and watch.
I watch AU in the mix because, in the "solar system" we watch, although cause and effect is a complex calculus to gauge, whatever is the cause, generally impact the sun (gold), and other planets rarely act on their own. However, lately, and in the near future, Silver should change it's rotation around the sun and get closer. That ratio is one I watch closely, and it should narrow.
I think the last time I saw any of YDM's posts was several months ago. I hope he is OK. He is one of the most intelligent posters in recent memory. Very articulate and a terrific sense of humor.
Anyway, keep in touch and anything you post ALWAYS adds to my/our base of knowledge.
PS: Agree with above $17.44, but IF it dips, I think it will hold $16.50and in the VERY near term, get to $18.10 or more regardless. The fundamentals that bulls were always arguing seem to be finally getting closer to reality. DXY could drop into the .80s this summer. IF they put it on steroids, then there's much more to worry about.I continue to also stack. I called it collecting, but apparently I was a stacker!
Good evening Chemaes.
Long time. Hope you are well.
Yes, opportunity has re-appeared. Actually, it cracked open the door in a big way for me in January.
My miners have outperformed every asset class I own,and coincidentally, EXK is one of them.
Thank you for your insightful post. Several "traders" zeroed in on $17.44. The "Elliotwavers" did about 3 weeks ago before the recent minor dip. Aside from core holdings, which I will not touch for this new leg, I am trading. some EXK which I exited this morning at $3.89/90 and GDX Although I expect a nice leg up soon, I am also looking for a minor retracement in the next few days possibly 2 weeks, as soon as AU hits $1290 ish. Overall, this could get very exciting. If GDX passes $28.10 ish, that could get to $40. But meanwhile, it's providing nice 3 pt swings at $22.50-25.50
The strategy is usually a good one. Used it for 2 years with AAPL, until the downturn.
Which miners do you follow?
In addition to SLW, and trading GDX, I am in and building additional posits in AG and AU juniors,largest accums have been MUX, DRD, CDE, EXK, GG.
2 stories getting out today; 1-Related to unfunded liabilities for the Pension system supporting Teamsters. 100s' of thousands of retirees and workers nearing retirement are hearing the system is not only going to have to take a haircut, but they heard, the haircut MUST be deeper than originally proposed. The entire system was based on projected annual investment income of nearly 7.5% !!!!! Someone (Kenneth Feinberg) released his findings and not only were the projection MADLY optimistic, the 22% haircut is WAY too modest. The system will default if they don't cut much more significantly.
2-U.S.Debt is destined to take a haircut IF I rates EVER tick up! Finally, it took a political outside, Donald Trump, a businessman very familiar with refinancing debt to voice the truth. Now, imagine US Debt defaults, even a penny of a haircut? What does that do to the U.S.Dollar--Erase the phrase (In G-d We Trust)
The only saving grace may be, IMO, Buy PHYSICAL gold and silver hand over fist!!!!!
Long Term Sentiment: IF all the naysayers like Warren Buffet are right, and gold is not a good investment, then WHY do Central Banks all over the world have been accumulating Gold? Why does the US maintain Gold?