Reiterate-I don't know if this stock will be up or down 30 days from now, but--BUT, 2 years from now, regardless of what I paid, I think we will be a multiple of what we are today! Not a fraction, a MULTIPLE!
I am averaging up at this point.
My own personal opinion is, Yehaw shouldn't be blamed for Govt intervention, nor should Govt.
The most likely genesis of the actual goings on is incompetence and not malintent.
I remember when inflation was rampant in the late 70s.
Those were the days when Government data was honest. Well sorta honest.
So Volker decided the only way to diffuse inflation was to increase interest rates.
Interest rates were so high, a fixed rate 30 year mortgage had 18% rates.The housing market got decimated,albeit temporarily. Banks knew it was temporary all coordinating together and offering buyers "buy downs", reducing their i rates for 3 years in a newly introduced adjustable rate mortgage. To qualify for the new mortgage,your monthly payment could not exceed 25% of your income.I asked the bankster what happens when the rate adjusts upward?Do you look at the new payment and whether it will exceed 25% of my income? He shrugged and said I shouldn't worry about that.
That was the BEGINNING of the end.
Shortly after that period, JP Morgan's Blythe Masters KNEW, and invented CDS;s and the BIG SHORT happened.
Keep in mind,Ms.MAsters was also heading up the JP Chase commodities division,and some out there allege SHE was responsible for the ultimate metals manipulation.Whether you believe that or not,know this;
There aren't too many folks as expert as she in "alternative" currencies. CDS's,commodities and now, investigate what she is up to.She is gearing up for another insideous attack.The system is about to be infiltrated by a clearing house using a form of bitcoin! More on how this impacts your fiat currency and gold. But believe me, it will.
First of all, many thanks for the discussion, opinions and references to noted centers of influence.
I understand and agree, no one has all the answers, but there is a side to the debate that makes a compelling case for assorted manipulation. Agreed. Just, difficult for me to accept the manipulation argument when it's invariably one sided, only when it goes down. I have and will continue to buy physical (mostly coins) and miners. I stay away from the "electronic" mirage of GLD and that ilk. Any one miner may be manipulated as a "stock", but difficult to manipulate them all. But manipulating the "basket" like GDX can be done and then that impacts underlying securities, not merely visa versa. But, in the long run, as long as the physical is being accumulated, the miners will follow (or lead the way).
Have been researching topics and posts. Uncovered your postings and am keenly trying to decide if we are truly in the midst of a major move to the upside or a false move, followed by a drop back to 1080 or so?
Your comments about "money stock worldwide, refers to what?
If JP Morgan manipulated the price down from 2011 to 2016, did "they" manipulate the price up prior to that, from 2001 to 2010,or was that move up driven solely by free market forces?
When Avi published it on Wed., $18.86 was his "support" level in GDX.
He updated it on Thursday raising to $19.75. So we are no longer above his bullish support level.
The tone of this and his past few letters were on the bullish side, with the usual caveats indicating it could all fall apart if it goes in the other direction. No kidding.
Avi relies on more caveats than a climatologist predicting the next hurricane season.
Thus, he can never be wrong and always be right, because ONE of his "but if this happens" has to happen.
I give him credit though. He is the Supreme Commander of obfuscation.
However, IF gold and PM miners do indeed take off, he will regain a lot of notoriety because, I do agree, Caveats aside,his sentiment of late is back to trying to be decidedly bullish on AU,AG and more particularly, miners.
And, if this move ends up being a false move he will also be right. But not really!
Appreciate your pasting his blog for all to see.
A am not a mathematician, but what happens if short term I rates rise to say 3% and longer term rates rise to 5%? Meaning, what happens to the US debt as a percentage of gross Domestic Product?
Kind of think the Govt. will have to borrow and or print a heck of a lot more money just to pay the debt? Fiat money just becomes worth less and less through currency inflation.
BTW, the % gains,if measured from January will far exceed 2-300%.
If measured from today, 2-300% or more.
IF Gold rises to previous highs, we could be looking at a 10 bagger.
Not that any of you "bugs" are crazy, but there are some pundits out there (and they are not bugs) who think gold will more than double from here and silver will 5x.
Most main street economists cannot presently imagine being in an environment where we have inflation. Imagine inflation, normalized I rates and the debt we have?How do you pay it back?
It's conceivable, in fact likely, the chart will reflect a parabolic move up. Possibly 200-300% or more. Many miners will show similar results IF all plays out the way we think.
Many money players feel Gold will rise during this term, to new highs.Silver "could" outperform gold in the pace, with the gold to silver ratio dropping to a more reasonable multiple.
With all that said, IF this plays out, that same chart WILL have BRIEF periods of consolidation that aren't all that evident over a 3 year view, but when we magnify and zoom into short terms, it will look choppy.
My point, is, buying and holding metals and GOOD quality miners, over the next 3 years could produce excellent, and possibly historic returns. Trading will be impossible to predict, unless yur a Monday Morning pro.
Average up or down, but average in over the next few months.
Trade at your own risk.
So these are "mini' moves within a much broader move eventually up and away? Trading these mini moves can be treacherous.
I know you are very bullish into summer on gold and silver, and CDE.
But in the interim you see further weakness before the big move up in the summer?
I guess, one question, a lingering question we all try to digest;
How long can the charade go on? Problem is, the answer is , likely a VERY long time! It's their ONLY task in life. To stall.
Some further opinion/ analysis of the Street.
Most of the major pundits are calling for a potential move up in Gold and possibly even larger move in Silver.They believe the Gold - Silver ratio will grow closer to all time averages by increasing the price of silver relative to gold.
No argument from me.
They do however "Hedge"their bets and spin their promo blogs almost in sync with each other by saying we are probably in for a modest pull back in precious metals prices BEFORE the next big wave up. These spin doctors do this and blog out of both corners of their mouth so they can be right in several scenarios, all the while staying true to their gold bug followers.
MOST have been SO WRONG over the past 4 years and they learned to spin their stories and prognostications.
So,let's assume for a moment, as a whole, their scenario plays out.
We have some minor consolidation over the next 3-26 weeks. LOL
But then we start to fly again.
Was it safe to enter at these prices?
My feeling is, start (if you didn't already) to build a position, or ADD to your position.
Add each and every month,without fail. At this point,maybe every week!
You will average up or average down but won't miss the next parabolic move up.
Buy quality miners, such as CDE with proven management and proven reserves.
I also like SLW,a silver streamer.
I like GG and DRD as well. But CDE is my #1 pick.All,IMO.
There are many voices of opinion regarding the direction of precious metals and what to expect along the way.
Much of what I read, from "name" opinion leaders on the bull side, is a continuation of the same story.
In a nutshell, they say, the financial system is imploding. (It is NOT)
They say the printing of money cannot continue. (It has continued and WILL continue)
They say the debt is unmanageable. (It IS manageable)
They say low interest rates is killing the average Joe Sixpack's bank account. (There are other causes for Joe's bank account problems)
They say a low interest rate environment is good for Gold and sister silver. (True)
They say Joe Sixpack will be forced to buy Gold and sister silver as a place to keep the money safe.(Joe has NO MONEY)
Let me tell you what IS TRUE.
Anbang,a Chinese company is buying Starwood.Anbang is a Chinese State owned Insurance Company. Somehow, our Government and regulators don't see a problem with this.The Chinese Govt is accumulating our land and property! China is buying and accumulating Gold right under our nose. Russia is accumulating Gold. And, the US is accumulating Gold.
The fixing of electronic prices skews the bigger picture.You see,WE the people cannot put a dent in supply.When we buy hard assets,it doesn't move the needle.But make no mistake, the wave of the future is fixing,meaning CONTROLLING prices and supplies.
Why do you think they are getting rid of high denomination currency as we write this?It's one of MANY steps being taken leading to a cashless and GOLDless society.
As long as they can, they will artificially keep the price of silver and gold LOW.
In the past, farmers were the wealthy.
In the future,they will once again be wealthy and the real wealth will be in the MINERS.THEY will control sovereign wealth.
Buy all the physical silver and gold you can people!
THAT alone controls the price of the metal, NOT the ETF's.It's all a mirage.
Buy physical and then our miners will take off.
In simple layman terms;
Yesterday, the metals market, at the close of trading, at 2PM, Gold was off about ($1.40) and silver off a few pennies.
Then, electronic trading (futures) continued and right after Yellin spoke, PMs rocketed, and of course, the electronic funds and Miners rocketed.
Today, Gold started out following through and maintained the gains but slowly slid a bit in the afternoon to end up, but not enough to match yesterday's gains.
Silver was stronger today but yesterday SLV already made most of the move.
So, poster dogjr5000 is 100% accurate. I just explained it differently.
$19.33, but wide open. $18.94 is a triple top pivot point. Once broken and held, looks real good!