The evaluation of $9.08 on a $70 share price misses the point. This quarter could have been an opportunity to increase margins with lower input costs. Continue to increase profits to get share price back to $85 or $90. As it played out it seems that the shorts were correct if they forecast less income for SAFM to drive prices even lower. Increasing earnings lead to increasing prices. Lower earnings lead to lower prices. The shares are still cheap and balance sheet is marvelous. Company needs higher profits for share holders to get rewarded.
I'm long a small position in SAFM. I thought it was cheap at about $90 - down from about $100. It has just continued to get cheaper while posting good financial results. Darned if I can understand it.
This short interest position is large. However it has been large for months and months. There is nothing the hedge fund fellows like more than to put the short squeeze on another fund in an over weight position. With SAFM now well under $80, where are the value investor funds? Or what is it that people here are missing?
There could be some corn price increase pressure because of the continued Midwest rain hurting crops. However initial planting reports were showing large numbers for acres planted or intended to plant. In any case, this trading activity of continued declines is not due to prospective corn prices. Look at the price action for CALM which continues near record highs.
There almost has to be some rat in this deal that we don't see. I guess if I hold long enough I'll find out.