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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

cmeng 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2015 5:03 PM Member since: Oct 6, 1998
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  • Reply to

    the deal

    by dreiser139 Nov 19, 2015 4:42 PM
    cmeng cmeng Nov 20, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    LNG exports will begin after first of year. Not much help for NG price because of huge volume oversupply but it all needs to be processed and transported. That will ramp up a bit more in 2016 and further into 2017. All increase volumes without price dependency. MWE can solve the coverage problem by taking a break from increases in distributions. Lots of new facilities coming on line in the next six to twelve months. Then back on track to continue higher distributions. I'd sure prefer that to just giving away 50% of cash flow to MPC.

  • Reply to

    Fox is disgruntled...

    by joebo246 Nov 17, 2015 4:09 PM
    cmeng cmeng Nov 20, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    The MPC balance sheet does nothing for either MPLX or MWE.
    The two MLPs will be used to generate drop down cash for MPC, sucking whatever cash is available from the two into MPC. The E&P company, MPC, has no excess cash to contribute to anything with lower oil prices. The vastly reduced distributions for the MWE portion of the new combo will allow some cash to fund the projected increases for MPLX and FREE IDR cash for MPC.

    Easy to project future distribution increases for MWE. Just cut them back by 50% as MPLX is doing, then crow about the ability to increase from a much lower level. However the current MWE unit holders don't have to give up a IDR rip off to do that as a stand alone company. Just remember, if this combo passes, it is the last vote concerning management or direction of this partnership that current unit holders will ever have.

  • Reply to

    the deal

    by dreiser139 Nov 19, 2015 4:42 PM
    cmeng cmeng Nov 19, 2015 11:44 PM Flag

    Fox is absolutely correct in describing the benefits to MPC. This deal gives them the IDRs plus much larger entity to absorb any drop downs they want to make to raise relatively cheap capital while booking a gain on the sale. Then, after getting the sale proceeds cash, they get the IDR cash flows from what they sold. Anyone who expects the E&P company to have better cash flows in an energy downturn, with some magic ability to supply cheap funding for an associated MLP, must do a rethink. Vote NO on this merger deal. If I am going to get a distribution cut so that cash can fund the growth, so be it. At least I will still own 100% of the developed assets with NO skim off. The MWE cash flows are just going to be used to pay the promises to the MLPX unit holders anyway. Cut mine back so that the much smaller MLPX distributions can grow a bit.

  • Reply to

    New employment contracts for CEO

    by drjohnlong Nov 3, 2015 6:47 AM
    cmeng cmeng Nov 3, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    That seems to be the first consideration of the SAFM management for some time. Bonus, bonus, bonus. Little benefit for shareholders have been realized. Share price seems deeply undervalued. Perhaps the smart money knows the reason. I am not able to explain it. However the empire continues to expand but it seems that little value is added as reflected in equity market value.

  • Reply to

    $3.1B for 28 million shares

    by jkshimer001 Oct 27, 2015 4:15 PM
    cmeng cmeng Oct 27, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    I agree on disappointment about the average price. So much time below $100 should have been an opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Kroger Chicken Special

    by cmeng Sep 29, 2015 11:09 PM
    cmeng cmeng Sep 30, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    Sure,, it is a temporary Special Price. Regular price is about $1.10. Still darned cheap for nearly ready to eat protein. I would think Kroger would choose a promo item that they are also able to get a good deal on when buying.

  • Thighs and drumsticks @ $0.49 / Lb.
    Lots of cheap chicken for everyone.

5.49-0.31(-5.39%)4:02 PMEST