Friends of mine attended the E & P conf. in Houston Thu/Fri, I didn't go but it appears the mood was like death. People hawking assets looking for liquidity anywhere they could find it. Extreme pessimism is what creates bottoms. The redetermination this April will be the swan song for many.
No, I don't believe the enterprise value will reach the level whereby the warrants have value. You also have to remember that if the seconds the DIP, equitizes and dilutes the bondholders, it is likely that the warrants will be restruck at an enterprise value that would make the bondholders whole. So on a 50% dilution, they may change the warrant strike to 2 billion and 2.2 billion. Buy the stock for the newco common, the warrants are a super long shot which I will say I have seen happen in the past. But don't buy the common for the warrants.
Hard to know...if they follow the same pattern as the rest of the crowd..Sandridge , Linn etc and draw the first down,, returns will be little to none. The April redetermination is key again.
I would agree the '18 and '19 numbers are very doable assuming we get the expected lift in pricing by then..they may be quite low. The warrants as expected are struck at 1.15 and 1.2 billion enterprise value and likely have no value even if they hit the '18 targets. As you can see they are talking about the likely event of equitizing the new DIP and possibly doing an additional rights offering, so all in the dilution to both the bonds and the equity is currently unknown, but likely at least the 75% they intimated. The Judge will probably ask for a new feasibilty study, since these projections may have been done at a higher level of WTI. That's a small risk but possible. I'm going to wait and see what the final docs look like before I do any adding to any of this, it may be worth just simply waiting to see how the newco equity trades and buy that...we will see.
All is fine,, just waiting on their MRO deal...expect a complete draw of the first lien with 30 days., my guess.
Than its countdown to the end.
Yes, I don't disagree with that, but we still have headline risk galore, and pipelines are now filing with Ferc to reduce rates, so we have that cycle to go through..the pain is not over.
ccc...wow value destruction in the entire complex has been amazing....can't last..even the liars are losing money...
Crab, I have...there is still some loose ends...27 wti is not helpful nor is $2.10 Nat gas..the strip is better...I was just engaging you in banter nothing more...big money will be made in this space going forward.. how and when is the question
the debt is better,, this is what kept people in CHK, some misguided thought that Icahn would save them.....doink
I agree,, I'm short the common too...selling every rally.....our risk like all the other disasters is they draw don their entire line of 380mm,, wiping out common of course, but pushing our bonds much lower.....
Crab, what odds you giving on this making it out of chapter 11? I'm thinking of the double or nothing that we had that it wouldn't file.
No such thing as naked shorting...why cause I can borrow 10 million shares and pay nothing so..you pretend, but why? Even the liars are losing money today.
Going through that now, there was a time they only sat at Berry, but at this point they may have been consolidated, not sure yet. You can make a case at current strip that the unsecured are worth 9c to .20c. Gotta see new balance sheet. They are still trading with interestat 2c so like paying 4-5. Incredibe value destruction. I guess you saw swift 2nds are still debating equitizing.
Your a supreme cretin..hate to be rude...but its over...zero nada, zippo...forgatz.....bonds are trading at 100% yields for weeks...toast...