Really...50 billion in debt and little cash and declining business...huh..Romatti is like the Jets, Titans, Jags all rolled into one..
Dollar been strong, pushing all commodities lower. They are so levered to the price that this can double and triple or go to zero if prices continue to fall. $200 per oz drop past 10 weeks has taken well over 100 mill of future value away. I have not done the work yet to determine at what point they can't pay the quarterly amortization on the bank debt, but there's a point and the stock is reflecting that possiblility.
I will say its truly amazing how they upgrade at the top and downgrade at the bottom, they get paid for this. Most of the oil analysts have capitulated already. Raymond James last week was a classic
Yes exactly, HPQ lost 70% of its value first before it got new management. So with that in mind I'll buy IBM at $65, where it was in the 90's after management couldn't figure out which way was up. She needs to go and quickly, buying your own stock is suicide when you have no new products and are a tech dino. She has missed social, she has missed mobile, she has missed internet, she has missed cloud she has missed everything. No vision, management is too old. Can't have 55 year olds running the business need the Youth. I've been negative on this for years.
Stock has no value unless bonds are par....
Equity usually the last to know...I remember in 2000 when the bubble burst in tech. Blodgett et al recommending some beat up fiber companies, the day before bondholders filed the companies. Was hilarious. 1 day. They simply don't understand that fiduciary responsibilty shifts to the debt at a point. Hey on Swift or Energy XX1 or any of the others...I'm happy to take par and let them have the rest....
Just the way it looks since we got no lift after the S & P stable announcement. If the line is cut in April they will need cash to fill the cap-ex plan they just announced. I had assumed a draw of the line anyway so as long as it's over and above the 170 or so..should be O.K, either way without higher prices by year end, gonna be trouble. I figure they can survive until March 2016
So I guess it was you and I, bought at 36 1/2-and 37 and change...40 with accrued, so I'm thinking at that price the whole company worth only 500mm. Seems too low even if they default restructure etc. I'm going to assume the cap-ex they announced is drawn off the line whether it be a Dip or current. So maybe its 10 down now and 60-70 up, kind of like that..covered 2/3 of my stock short as well. $2 left with unknown up
we should see a pop in the debt Tuesday.
9,041,000 is cash. If they have 200, its because they drew down their entire remaining line, because they thought they would lose it...gonna be an interesting week next week.
when this turns...
Tela, this was created by the Saudi's and OUR Government for obvious reasons, they don't want a way out for awhile until the pain is unbearable or we are at War
Duck...buy the bonds...at 60c. Your fighting this with the common..May work..but the bonds yield 30%+ and they will get paid first.
I like the Bry debt down here...low 70's..probably ets cheaper but suggesst Yes the equity of Bry toast.
Short interest 15 million shares or 36% of the float...Shorts have this dead on perfect...And the bonds told the story....instead people fought it, from here who knows..$2 its ajump ball
Looks like the Berry Pete subsidiary can cover interest down here pretty easy. The Holdco paper well getting tough. The div looks like toast at this level of oil.
Relatively light hedge required, cause the bonds are already discounting a default with 30%+ yields..I'm hedged down to 40-45c now..You can add or lower the hedge as it becomes more obvious, I expect to see the PV-10 from these guys anyday now...will tell us if there's any thing left on the bank line...