Yes, our clue was when the banks starting selling at a discount. I mentioned that about 6 weeks ago. If the banks with a first lien feel they may be impaired what does that say for the bonds? Some have to sell cause of this Dodd-Frank mess so its a little hard to really know.
Dune filed with 229 mill of reserves, but your point is correct. You forgot aside from the 19 mill they got from the sale. 2 fields were sold for $1. A stinking buck. And for Crabby ALL second liens became unsecured claims, they were given NO priority.
Unless its a chapter 11 filing,, I'm not consenting to anything if the common retains a penny. Can't force me to do anything unless its an 11. So if they want to keep paying me and make me money good I'm fine. Eventually I get par or your a zero. If its an 11 your a zero. Either way I'm gonna be better off. I gave you the Dune scenario where the seconds despite being a "nice" second still got pushed into the unsecured barrel cause company was insolvent at time of loan. Why I don't see new money coming in here unless its a Dip, which will be rolled into a new first AND become a slug of the equity. This all assumes this doesn't liquidate.
CCC. These guys as in Swift management must have their head in the sand. They have 307 drawn on their revolver with a 330 borrowing base, that was as of Nov1. There's a 10 million or so payment due in 2 weeks, leaves them 13, they burn 8 a month, so they will have 5 mill in liquidity Dec2 if they make the payment. Bondholders have been pushing for a DIP for 2 months now and somehow Terry et al thinks something good is going t happen. So they keep pushing this to the cliff and eventually it goes over. As i said awhle ago, the new money gonna take a huge chunk of this company
which would be taxable as forgiveness. Bye
I'll pipe in, If you have 500 mill, what would you ask for, with company on its knees, virtually bled out? How about everything. Bonds get 10-20% of newco the 500 gets everything else. Common gets to be a placemat. This company can't handle any interest expense.
Crab..Its over..Stop the nonsense. Your rant is just that a rant. Terry can't do anything of the kind. he's out of time money and bondholder and Bank patience. There is no nice deal no nothing except a DIP. Debtor in Possession. And your asset value is over stated by 9 figures..take a finance course please! Bye
same reason stock is worthless. Terry ran the company over a cliff. Occasionally you run into clueless management. Keep the blinders on until poof, company evaporates. This is the case now. Common is now close to 1/2 BILLION out of the money so its toast...bonds getting toasted on new value plan. This Crab should liquidate,, nobody in their right mind would put money into this with the current managemet
R. Bull the company needs more cash,, lets see what the deal looks like. And who gets what. Looking at bond filings...I don't see any distressed pro's in there, lots of mutual fund selling, so I'm not so sure who the heck Terry is even talking to.
Cube..I have a Pro Bloomberg subscription past 35 years so gives me any info pretty much I want....u can follow 13g filings at Sec.gov but its not real time
Which is why this may be worth more liquidated, auction everything. Sitting here burning away cash will eventually make the banks impaired, so liquidation is a real possibility. Bonds may get 25c if liquidated rather rapidly. Wouldn't take more than 3 months.
Could trade with due bills next week if they don't make the payment. Nothing like a confident bondholder at 13c. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
They can actually make the payment, should they NO. If they do with another 10 mm coming due Jan 1. They are then out of cash literally, no credit cards no nothing without a capital raise. Only 100mm shares authorized so that gives them no flexibility. And banks require 435mm of debt to be extinquished by Feb1. So you tell me what this guys gotta do. Just when
Cube and CCC, we are all out of the money now except the banks at the moment because of the current underlying commodity price. They only have 100 million shares authorized for converting the bonds; yes it would give us 66% of the equity fully diluted BUT its a no go. Once we convert into equity they will layer us with additional debt. So you must holdout. I will not convert my '17 paper unless its through a Chapter filing. I will hold out and force them to pay me par. So the only way to avoid the holdout is with the chapter hammer. While we are out of the monye currently and these guys keep spending cap-ex to avoid losing leases they are in a crisis and don't seem to care. I watched one such sitch in the past where insiders were in such denial they were buying common as late as 1 day before bondholders filed the company. These guys are no different. Can't seee whats happening or refuse to acknowledge. Next week gonna be interest for sure. But as I have said before any new money coming in now gonna take a big piece of the pie.
Always Happier if they pay. When in a distressed workout always take more than less. Its nice to be a "nice" guy but doesn't pay in the end. I kind of wish I was in this negotiation. I would have had one of the crack distressed attorneys find "something' in the indenture to say they were in violation of, would have changed the dynamic. Cause if they wouldn't play ball I would have said PUBLICLY that I was gonna file an involuntary 11. Gets em going all the time.
That's a great question and I don't know the answer, but I suspect they are at the minimum. They have already cut it in half. Problem is 92 mill of ebitda 72 of int and 100 of capex. Its trouble. No bondholder gonna exchange into equity. NOT 1.