I thought it was on page 13 or 14 of the recent Q, they are clearly restricted now anyway, cause the buyback if allowed required a zero balance on the bank line, except for up to 100mm of lc's. I use a Bloomberg professional terminal came across the newswire at 5:16. Doesn't say much except an expected exchange offer or chapter 11 expected within 6 months. The secured debt expected to recover 90-100c and the bonds high point of a 15-30 class 5 recovery. Earnings coming out on the 8th and probably will have a qualified opinion with a warning of chapter 11. Don't hurry out and subscribe to the Bloomberg service, its crazy expensive but I was in the industry for 40 years and its become invaluable. I can quickly locate bond and bank debt covenants, get CDS levels, All news and stuff is 100% public of course; its just ease of finding the info.
PI, its over. They already have a second lien out which doesn't permit much in the way of additional 2nd lien debt, they will be in violation of their bank covenants with the draw down. they can NOT buyback debt, not 1 anymore, it violates the bank line covenants. They hired Evercore to clearly track down the bondholders and get them into a room to prepare for a pre-pack, which will be written and done by Kirkland and Ellis LLP. The drawdown was to provide the liquidity which they would have lost inthe re-determination and to make the trade creditors comfortable. Will take a few months to get this all done..A ton of paper has now turned over and will continue to as this moves from mutual funds to distressed funds. Franklin was the big holder, are they now? Who knows
Mutual funds are very slow, money comes into the energy funds and they buy across the Board. I've been out all day, will set up bonds tomorrow if there's a borrow if not we can do a synthetic short.
So far i haven't been called, so much of the trading these days is algos, so stock going up, they buy, stock going down they sell, fundamentals are meaningless. Part of Hillary Clintons campaign is to tax high frequency guys, never will happen, but it would end the computer driven swings
Talked to 4 stock loan desks today,, all have no borrow and say its a squeeze. Can it squeeze more,,, sure. But your rationale makes no sense. You sound like the Swift, Goodrich,Quicksilver, Linn, Molycorp, Midway shareholders or maybe the energy 21, comstock, sandridge, cobalt ,penn Virginia, I heart, or Horsehead shareholders, take your pick. All ended the same. Musical chairs, your choice when you leave.
I agree, can be difficult, as you can see with WTI, Swift I await the final outcome, not sure how much they may need to raise in a rights offering..and what percent.so i sit..
pros sniffing a bottom or at least a trading bottom. WTI stock was lifted on a tweet by an investing blog...looks like the classic pump and dump...we will see.I have a social velocity alert function and it was on it..I didn't check that until this morning
Yeah, I know who he is, he's the guy that lost 500 mill this past 12 months on a obviously wrong Kinder Bet. I'm talking about his adding millions of shares in the 40's. Now of course he can afford it, so no big deal, but sometimes these guys let their wealth get in the way. Tracy already put money into the second liens PI to save this thing, but you knew that already. Along with other members of managemnt. Will they put more dough in? NO, Why? Cause the company is insolvent and like the Linn seconds will be equitably subordinated. Nobody gonna test the lien of the current seconds. We may see a valuation fight between the seconds and the bonds since Tracy owns the seconds. But that's fine. Bonds 15 bid looking, if they get to $40,, I'll then start to cover. It is possible Tracy is buying blocks of the bonds too, there is a size bid there, which would make it very interesting. Does he credit bid the bonds and take this private in a chapter 11, that could happen too. Very exciting stuff i will say. Looking forward to the conclusion, which will start with whatever they say on the 8th. People have been waiting for Icahn to save CHK all the way down from $30 to $3. Lets have fun and watch it play out. If we are lucky we both make money!
not too pretty, if prices don't rise..but they are doing what they can..
If PI is right...with NO risk buy the bond sat 15c...riskless 8x if he's wrong..probably no downside versus 100% in his scenario...he's a dreamer...take your poison... We will know alot more in a week..so I say wait and decide with more info...I am short the stock full disclosure...long bonds
I think he's done, but ho knows, Bonds were for sale all day in size..so we will see what that means at the end of the day..I think money coming into energy mutuals and they are buying stuff across the Board...
Cube, unless we are missing something really bad I agree, I'm thinking of getting pretty heavy into this one..I'll see what the 8th looks like first.
So, the latest update from a credit analyst says WTI will use the $450 mill to cure the current "default" under the credit line pay for the Boem bond and attempt an exchange or pre-pack. 150 back to the banks, 100 to Boem leaves them 200 for Working cap and cash burn. PI bond investors are right almost 90% of the time, for me I was hoping the offer at 16 was still sitting there on the debt, now 17...25 mill bid looking for offers. This one is not over,, short squeeze's happens. The 8th is going to be very interesting especially if there's a going concern addition from the auditors.
Cube, they have drawn 30 already and have no current exit financing, they need to do another round of financing since, payment of all pre-petition trade creditors plus continued losses burns up all liquidity under the 2nd lien. Which is why the bonds are at 3-4c
I'll check the Court Docs, the last cash flow statement showed them fully drawn by late April including the repayment of the pre-petition trade. The bondholders have been fighting the repayment of all of the trade claims, which is almost 50 million, so that may explain the difference between the Court Docs and the K. Although I thought I read in the Court docs they drew down the first 10 or 20 at least. I'll be back.
On the Swift sitch absolutely. I'd bring in a trustee if I had to before I paid all the pre-petition payables...I can't believe 100% of them including ,millions to the phone and internet companies are critical..The list is on the docket..its 100 pages long...