Maybe, but Interest expense moves from 73mm to 136 mm, so with ebitda of 60 next 6 months and interest and cap-ex of 125, they burn off 65mm of liquidity, then in 2016 ebitda of say 135 and interest and cap-ex of 200, they burn another 65mm so liquidity going into 2017 is 220, but here's why I keep saying I'm concerned..liquidity of 220, ebitda of say 185 is 405, but debt maturity of 250 and 280 of interest and cap-ex puts them in the hole of 125. So question will be can they re-fi the 2017. They will be over 6 1/2 x levered, not an easy task. Which is why I have been saying they need a boost in the underlying pricing. This is hugely levered to price and the whole complex will fly especially the common if prices rise. Otherwise doesn't work.
Actually neither,, way too small. Decent cyclist, poor runner. I'll keep you posted. The comstock sale of Eagle Ford acreage at $400/acre undeveloped is a disappointment to say the least. So I sit on the sidelines pending the SFY first lien docs.
Thanks for the kind words Bantam. 35 years Professional money management, ran a billion dollar + fund; I think I learned a little. Now retired for almost 10, I get to banter with guys like you. I'm looking forward to buying the turn in this industry not guessing at a bottom.
I was short but covered at $2 ish. Not because I think its going up, but because its $2 up for me and anything down and with 45 million shares out, its not a good risk reward. I currently have no position and am waiting to see the terms of the new first lien before I react either way. Stock continues to hit new lows because of long selling and by tax selling mid oct will probably be below $1. Just a guess...unless something good happens with the underlying.
Its a dog nut, we all know that,,beeen talking about it for a year...the only hail mary left is the debt.....But with some of the comp sales out there becoming a little bit dicey.. Do I sell stock at 1.90 no..do I buy no...Lets see what the covenants are of the debt and then we can make an informed decision. Right now...this is a Doug Flutie hail mary ..so far I have been dead on..with of course nonsense from the peanut gallery. Buy the debt and have say dudes..its not hard
Yep, saw the announcement today. Which is why SFY debt is moving lower...with the 600 million coming in ahead of the bonds and values dropping the picture is a little fuzzy, why the stock hit a new low today.
Its not the dividend,, at all Institutions all know what the divvy is....Its WIN, until win shows any sign of bottoming in terms of their business the fear of a WIN bankruptcy will weigh on this. Looking at the crdit default swaps out there,, the bet is WIN is bankrupt between 2019 and 2023. Now that doesn't mean they will not pay the lease, but it does make it dicier
There's no manipulation,, registering of the shares post the X date made it an easy target for legitimate short selling. Easy as pie. When they declare the next div time to load up.. Win seeing insider buying now too so, we are closing in on a short term bottom...But manipulation nah...just an easy walk down by the hedgies.
Both the bonds and the common are now in the life boat because of the new piece of paper to be...this is now aGiant Hail Mary for all except the new debt...why soo hard to understand..? Weird..its eco 101
You really have no idea what your talking about...Answer why someone would illegally short with no borrow when a cheap borrow is available...? You have never made any sense and at least your consistant
Board is working for the creditors, not the shareholders. They have filed for chapter 11 and fiduciary responsibility has now shifted to the debt. The common under any possible scenario is a doughnut. There will be no shareholder creditor committee its so far under water that one will not be allowed. If you want to play, buy the 25c first lien debt or 2c juniors. The rest pay it no mind.
I'm glad everyone read it..... I'd say at $1500 gold its back in production at 1175 I just don't see it..