Just got back in at 23.25. I liked it at 30, but was clearly not done going down...we'll see at this level. One of the few that actually cover their cap-ex
Its long over, even the shouting. Bonds are at 4c even the second lien is at 20c.
Bonds have a yield to maturity now of 63%, my cost is around 35c. The hedge worked almost perfectly. but from here I am naked. So the question is with WTI at 28, do I sell the bonds and breakeven or see if this thing makes it. I see equitization by the June coupon or something to reduce the int exp.
covered my remaining tiny short today at 1.35..stock is worthless...bonds are now 25c and may be worthless...tax losses are worth 43%..sad
Yes, they can file a pre-pack without being out of cash, but will be down the road. Basically hopelessly insolvent. Unlike Swift which is now begging for oxygen cause they ignored the obvious, companies can protect the liquidity they have or like Texaco years ago file to stave off a take over or lawsuit. The Judge still has to approve the re-org plan and if there's a reasonable chance of some recovery or if there remains shareholder equity a Judge will approve an equity committee. So Sandridge can file and maybe there will be a valuation fight. The secured paper will contiue to get paid generally or at least get whats known as adequate protection payments for the use of their collateral. Second liens may or may not continue to get paid but usually their claim continues to accrue.
Left me a freakin 100 share short..whoopie. I suspect odds of next announcement now very negative versus positive if that wasn't already obvious.
Yes, Why I only own the bonds..Getting paid to wait, huge yield and if Rowling tenders he has to refi the debt same time. Could be a homerun. If oil and Nat gas stay here..he'll eventually own this at $1
A tender would be welcome for the rest. $4 sound good?
Lefty he has done nothing but add, NEVER sold a share. Started at over $10/sh. As I said he's welcome to buy this at anyprice. If he waits long enough he'll be able to tender at $1. At which point the bondholders will put him the debt. at 101, which I so look forward to.
what happened to the last 15 points?
been accumulating for 2 years, and he's underwater big time..down 50 mill easy. The question is why doesn't he just buy the bonds at 60c..get paid to wait and bid for the company if it looks like it survives...Happy to have him buy it as a bondholder. 101 put..sold to you Mr. Rowling
PI, buy some 8.5% at 30c. Common going to stagger along until the bonds move back to the 60's. At least your paid to wait, almost 30% cash on cash. What could go wrong? Closed most of my short today at 1.56. We will see.
Yes, I know all that,which is why they can't buy back debt. Can't risk not having the First lien available in this environment. My guess is they bought 25mm or so, not much more, now with pricing where it is..They are at risk of busting covenants on leverage and quick ratio. We should see a 2nd lien exchange coming to reduce the possibility of busting the first lien covenants. Tough environment.