No specific value,, usually depending on how bad it is the debt just gets all the equity and the common is cancelled. No Judge will allow a plan like that though if even after the debt gets extinguished that the company still bleeds, so new equity may need to be raised. If thats the case, a new value style plan the bondholders will get less than 100% of the equity. The value of the newco will be determined like any common stock in the market place. I only own the PVA debt..With debt in the 30's that the play if you like PVA, the rest the commonis a spec.
Boom,,,they can do it in 3 months with a pre-pack..all equity would go to the bondholders, the bank line stays in place or replace initially wth a DIP.
Basically yes..we have a severe zombie attack..As Judge Judy says..You Sir are a moron..I refer to you know whoms....
Nitro,, why not wait until the 15th when all Institutions need to file their holdings report,, you'll have credible evidence of Soros then...and Nitro don't buy more Monday, waste of money...start buying the debt in the 30's...all fiduciary responsibility now has transferred to the debt...
Eise,, I first met Singer in 1989 when they were driving the Amdura process. Same sitch as this Eise man, guys like you thought the stock had value. They were of course wrong, the play was the bonds. The smart money of course in Amdura was the debt. Singer is one of the best ever. So today I agree its confusing for people who have no training in credit analysis, all I can say is your in over your head.
o.k...my suggestion to you is...buy the bonds...the common in my opinion is so far out of the money, makes no sense. The book value is only .50 now, why buy the common..????????
Well, Terry didn't sound to optimistic about the Nov bank line redetermination. That is the short term risk and it looms large, its their only source of cash, its just a credit card. I wouldn't touch anything but the bonds now, some can be had for as little as 20c. Or a 400 mill value. The common in the cross hairs now. Terry can't wait to see if he has any money to operate Nov 2 , so this all comes to a head Sept Oct latest. There's no time left. He can negotiate a Debtor in Possession loan beyond Nov 1, but he needs money and a direction within 45 days so all the paper work can be lawyered up. This is why PVA, and GDp and comstock got their ducks in a row already, they can now slide through Nov. terry sat there unhedged hoping his brains out something good would happen. Big difference in quality of management. I will say asset quality at Swift is there, but that management team and the Board needs adult supervision. Either way very likely the bondholders put 1-3 Board members on, I wouldn't take a haircut OR give these guys another cent without Board reps. Clear they need it.
Will,, nobody can read a balance sheet on most of these Boards..pathetic, why I have recommended ONLY ETF's for people, until you can read a balance sheet and income statement and do comps, you should be prohibited from trading by all the big houses. Passing a simple Financial exam would then qualify you to trade individual stocks. Maybe I allow only the S & P 500, but beyond that should be a no go. Not knowing where the debt trades of a small company brings untold losses everytime. Been going through this on the SFY Board. Same thing stock now .55. Debt was 50c with stock at $4 easy cap structure arb..and same deniers...
Top, which is why Rometti wasting Billions of dollars on useless sharebuybacks was a disaster instead of buying growth. Stock is down , they have 50 billion of debt now and no growth. What a mess
If Carl gets involved in SFY,,its gonna be ugly,,he will try and steal everything including the oxygen in the air..lets hope he doesn't show
It would on a temporary basis, an d create optionality for a commodity price increase, but it, SFY will continue to bleed even faster. Why the 650 never happened. Gotta remember there's no equity left and if they do a 450 loan, every dollar of losses brings the first lien closer to lack of coverage. At these prices..they can do about 125 of ebitda, A 450 loan at 8% plus bond debt of 56, assuming they get the '17 paper to roll 50% into a new second is 92 mill of interest expense, plus cap-ex of 120/yr, makes them bleed 80 mill a year...problem not fixed.