Why own the common at the moment....? Stay higher in the capital structure and buy the common when it turns..Pay to know..now you guys are taking a stab in the dark.....
Relatively light hedge required, cause the bonds are already discounting a default with 30%+ yields..I'm hedged down to 40-45c now..You can add or lower the hedge as it becomes more obvious, I expect to see the PV-10 from these guys anyday now...will tell us if there's any thing left on the bank line...
Yes, Interactive or Fidelity or Etrade...3 issues..trade between 50 and 59. The 2017 paper is offered at 59 with a 32% yield yes..why I kept telling people credit holders don't like a thing what they see here..The longer paper 2022 is around 49..all need to go to par before equity gets a dime....
As I have said continuously buy the bonds versus a short on the common. Likely these guys get taken out in a take under or not much of a premium if low oil continues for the rest of the year. Or they restructure and common is wiped and the bonds control the equity in the next upswing......So far the setup is working like a charm.
My guess is they do a private with TRT and issue more shares to get them through the valley. Then a buyout., but nothing till after the annual.
Davida..do me a favor and don't respond....we are done...instead of using my advice and help its spurned..who cares..no more covenant advice for you...interest coverage, net worth writedown language nah why would you want to know any of that..Have a nice weekend.
Right..of course..been using it for decades.. Nice try..whats your agenda dude?
I use it daily. When I ran my fund and now as a retired person...Every Hedge fund manager has it....you have too...takes seconds to look up covenants, do research. But its costly, is that your issue????
No don't work for anybody actually, I was a credit analyst for almost 40 years. I subscribe to the Bloomberg Pro service which allows access to all company credit agreements. Its a must have for easy access to stuff, but stupid expensive.
6.16 of the JPM line. restricted without consent of a majority of the BD holders.
Davida, Sorry read the covenants of the bank debt. The banks may allow it, but no they need approval. That covenant doesn't seem to appear in the BD of PGN.
Lots of reasons...first off, when mutual funds and Hedge funds sell an industry, they sell everything, they don't care..if it has oil in the name its out of the portfolio. Sell first ask questions later, number 2..this collapse occurred at the end of the year and continued till the last day.. what Institution going to try and catch a falling knife? and risk a good year. None. I expect much analysis by funds in the new year, however, if energy prices continue to fall don't expect these bonds to do anything but continue their slow decent as the prices discount the odds of default. Hence my small short on the common to give me a little additional protection. Oh and by the way the ratings are old and based on much higher prices, if energy is weak, there will be many more ratings declines to come. My question is why do you own individual bonds if you don't do your own credit work? I don't own any of the others you have so I can't comment. I won't touch anything coal, until Obama is out of office. Suicide
They need approval of a majority of the bank debt holders to buy back any debt. What we don't know is if the bank debt has traded into distressed hands from standard banks. That is a huge issue for the holders of anything in the capital structure below the bank line. Think loan to own. But its early so lets see.
Gonna take sustained $50 oil for the bonds not to have value at .50c, that being said these cycles tend to be longer than people expect. I own a little of the 3 issues versus a very light short on the common. Hedged my exposure down to about 40c. Takes about a $16 share price for me to breakeven, not happening on the short run. But I clip coupons at almost 16% annualized with a 30% ytw. I like the trade. I am hoping along with the common holders that these guys get taken out at $6 or 7
I did cover a small amount at $4, so its shorts locking in some late gains...natural buyers? No. The debt is the equity now dude