If you are a Democrat, the clean energy works because you get it for free. Panels and all.
If you work for a living and probably vote GOP, it's an economical loser for you.
I think he figures he/his son, owns the sweet spot of the Mississippian anyway, and we own the butt end of the stick out there. Look for him to IPO his family WCT Miss in about a year at 20 bucks a share. Just like a Trust, but 50 MM shares this time around. He will have plenty of money from the Public and Watsa and maybe Aubrey to restart right next to his doggie SD Miss. He's probably already a part owner of the Permian he just sold.
I don't know about 2, but 4 is entirely possible when all of TPG's clowns get in the room. Couldn't drill their way out of a paper bag.
When they did that the Coal industry was going great guns. Don't blame Arch and Peabody. Fracking is what brought the coals down. And Obama
I think that SD will tilt toward the 4's. At that point TPG/Leon will come in and make an offer for 40 or 50MM shares from holders above that point, Dutch tender style. I do see Oil dropping back to the 70's. NG? Not sure but I am invested heavily in the thing going to 5 bucks
They will raise the divy by +-40 cents, but continue to buy their stock back. It is the most undervalued of all the Big Oils, and they like the idea of going private in about 10 years.
I figure that by the time TPG gets their arms around the situation, Oil will be sitting around 70, and NG around 2.50. There will be some excuse why they can't make things work, and the stock will be around 4 bucks. They will Dutch Tender offer all existing shareholders for around 4, and many will take it. I see TPG as a Vulture, who wants these assets at bargain basement prices. Our best bet is for them to come in and headslap Ward, allow him to stay under adult supervision, and continue building the company. They need 100% of the company to make their Plan work, not 7.3%.
He said that he thought NG would head higher, and that he would defer on hedging out to 2014 until we got a good pop. Riverboat gambler in my opinion, but he is looking "more right" every day. We need a few more weeks of cold weather/high drawdown, and that would get us to 4+ on spot gas. Will that be enough for him to Hedge out for 2014? Sorry I didn't add more down at 17
Maybe, but NG prices on a roll can only help us.
Up to this point the only folks getting straight information about the Miss are Ward's family members. Certainly not the SD commoners and Trustees.
Without Ward, SD will resemble one of those "dead in the water" Carnival Cruise ships out in the Caribbean or GOM. It'll get stinkier by the minute. TPG could cast off a life raft any day now, and abandon ship when they get a look at the books. That is why Grubb left. The numbers just won't add up.
Who's joking? I truly believe that when they get an independent Reservoir Engineering team to come in and look at the Mississippian, they will be shocked. No sweet spot, unless it is on WCT family acreage. As to the DOR, the cost of doing business on that rust bucket will be very unsavory for them. Our only hope is that TPG and Cooperman can sell this dog to somebody soon. I thought that is what they were going to do in the first place. Leon is looking for the exit as we speak. Gimme 8 bucks.
I hope you are right patrick. Drilling and Fracking and pipelining and water disposal and road building costs alot of money. The only way to keep the leases, and maintain production, is to "drill baby drill", and then "frack baby frack". If TPG says stop drilling, the Mississippian will be on a pump and/or compressor by early 2015. I just want TW to be found out if he has stolen our money.