I am glad someone on this board (like me) actually LISTENED TO THE WHOLE conference call. For this alone, you get my THUMBS UP for the day.
New pattern developing....
Unlike the past few weeks, today's higher price momentum HAS NOT been followed up with increasing Put Volume during the same trading period. In fact, the option volume is very low. This is a common pattern for swing/robot trades.
Not going to forecast price moves like others on the post! But I will say that the option pattern seems to be changing. Tomorrow will be the confirmation day...
Thanks. I forgot to put the break-even price.
Looking at the other options action (just to add some color), (1) this was not a vertical spread because not much $ in the Nov 10 and (2) this was not a calendar spread playing the clock and (3) this was not a straddle playing volatility **
This was... as you say... a $50k bet on expiring above $7.7 in seven (7) trading days!!!!!!
** as for a straddle, this could theoretically be someone just now putting on a call, that previously have a large put open interest. Unlikely, but possible.
Let me put this in perspective.... Nov 7.5 calls within last few minutes have exceeded all the OUTSTANDING 7.5 puts to date. Not speculation or rhetoric - just fact.
While I will concede that forward guidance is powerful, if your assessment were correct, there would be NO earnings reports. No SEC requirement to issue past (qtr) requirement. NO trend followers. NO technical analysis. NO .....
Yes, history is not indicative of the future...but is does paint a picture of risk.
The market will speak in time....
Misstatements, accounting issues, revenue timing... yada yada yada.
We are now below 2x free cash flow. While earnings statements can undergo "creative accounting", cash flow does not lie. Walmart isn't suddenly $20/share just BECAUSE shorts say it is.
The only thing that stops short-feeding is valuation trades.
This will not last. It can't last. Even pension funds will pick up at this valuation.