Clem, I believe he's referring to the statistical performance that would be required for the interim analysis to be considered a success. I won't pretend to have the numbers if that is what you are looking for. Generically, for the trial to be stopped at the interim, performance would have to be extremely exceptional (in vague descriptive terms) as opposed to the final analysis which has to perform well but not nearly as well as the interim in order to stop it early. The problem is that some may extrapolate an unsuccessful interim analysis as a predictor of failure for the final analysis even though that may not be the case.
I'm glad it helped. However, one piece of unsolicited advice, in a prior post you said you've been in Exel for a year I believe, the due diligence should be done before you buy. I'm not criticizing, I'm speaking from experience after leaping before I looked. It will reduce your stress the sooner you learn the lesson.
Are you getting any answers or just thinking out loud? The smart#$%$ answer is take $450 and add $100 to it. That is your answer to now what, $550.
Here's a thought:
They had $450 m in cash I believe at the end of last quarter. Look at their burn rate of cash and subtract that from the $450 through the end of 2014 = $200 mil. Add in what you think is profit from their sales which are very small. You'll likely begin to see greatly diminished cash on had which likely isn't enough to get them through completion of the RCC and HCC trials while also ramping up sales for prostrate, etc. In addition, if they want to begin trials in other indications the money runs out even quicker. If I'm running a business, I would want to know that at the end of this year, I had more cash than what could get me through the end of 2015.
I don't like the dilution and subsequent drop in price we are going to get hit with. But if results are good later this year, it will still be a profitable investment in my opinion.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm not focusing on them for any of my investments. I'm pointing out someone's ignorant statement, simple as that.
That blanket statement that he doesn't own stocks is a tough one to swallow. How is he investing for retirement, savings account at .02% interest? I think your ignorance is showing now.
"and the overall survival analysis for EXAM are expected in 2014"
Wasn't there speculation these results would be this year. I wonder if anyone thinks this is a sign the results will more likely be favorable.
Market is down overall, mdvn, amgn, regn, are down just to name a few. How about a small drop before earnings for some folks to get in and then a pleasant surprise after hours today? What difference does it make what it does today? I'm looking forward to the next six to twelve months and after if we are still independent.
"Sounds like" huh, there you go again spouting off about something you know nothing about. I don't need hidden messages to know you should go back to the hole you crawled out of.
You may have concluded correctly about enabler because while he claimed to be long, he did nothing but complain about how lousy the share price was among other things. He even regularly had words for Ernie who I tend to think is a pretty smart fella, whereas enabler may have been a fart smeller. Hee, hee.
So since you believe it's going to 3.50 you're shorting more now right. That's a whole $1.20 away, think of all the money you can make.