Makes no sense. This stock should be in the 70s.
Do you know who writes SA articles? Pretty much anybody who wants to. It's really not much different than posting on a message board.
Not saying you are wrong or the numbers you stated are wrong - but if SLW said they are expecting 11 percent out of it then I am doubting they made those numbers up.
Just stating that about SA because of another stock I was following where it was being pumped in a hard way through SA articles. A lot of investors gave them way too much credibility and got hammered when it became obvious that 90 percent of what was in the SA articles were amateurish BS and way off the mark.
It looks to me like a lot of people are determined to spin this in this most negative light possible - and are almost desperate to do so. Honestly, I'm not trying to spin it either way - just trying to look at some numbers. When I looked at it yesterday I wasn't that crazy about it - but after further analysis I'm starting to think this might actually be a good deal. Feel free to explain why I am wrong. No hard feelings. Just trying to analyze the deal.
In rough numbers it looks like the company will basically issue 10 percent more shares than what is on the market for what will be in return roughly a 10 percent increase in revenue. If that's the case, then it would seem that a 10 percent increase in revenue would have a very significant impact on the bottom line (and therefore the dividend) as they would not be increasing their expenses by a corresponding amount. For most businesses, once you reach a certain level of revenue anything above that is either all profit or mostly profit as all of the fixed costs have already been covered. Given that, it looks like this deal could have a significant positive impact on earnings and dividends and will look like a great deal shortly down the road. In fact, if they can do this again then they should.
Also, the roughly 10 percent increase in revenues is based on current gold prices. If gold goes to $1600 an ounce then they will be making 50 percent more on this deal. If it goes to $2000 then they will be making double what they are making at $1200. Even at $1200 this looks like a good deal. At anything above that it gets phenomenally better.
Just my opinion.
They are clearly thinking that gold will go much higher - and if they are right then this deal is going to look pretty sweet. If they are wrong then they will still recapture their investment with an income stream to boot.
That's the math I came up with too - but that also assumes $1200 gold. If gold hits $1500+ then this deal starts to get really attractive. If it goes higher than that then it gets extremely attractive. Even at $1200 it's not just terrible - just not great.
I think the last time they moved it to a hold it was at $41 per share and then they moved it back to a buy at $61. Hopefully they will be similarly accurate this time and we will see another 50 percent run.
I'm not going anywhere. The company is growing revenues, profits, and dividends at too rapid of a pace for me to bail out over an analyst recommendation. Just saw WYN drop 4 bucks on an analyst downgrade right before jumping $14 the following couple of weeks. That all happened just within February.
Anybody who sells on an analyst downgrade either needs to have followed that analyst for years and be extremely confident in them or they never should have been in the market to begin with as they are too easily manipulated.
So…for those people that sold I guess if the analyst had estimated two pennies lower then we would have been up today. Makes a lot of sense, right? Don't worry about revenues, profits, and dividends all going up. Just focus on what the analyst estimates and whether or not the company exceeds that.
There are apparently lots of people in the market who do not need to be in the market. If you buy on Tuesday and you are worried about where the stock will be on Wednesday then you need to be at a casino instead.
This one will go higher - much higher - just got to be patient and let the constantly increasing revenues, earnings, and dividends add up to something that can't be ignored.
This thread is like playing chess with a chicken. Regardless of what happens he's going to prance around with his little bird chest out, $#!_ all over the board, and cluck about it.
This is the kind of stock you want to own in times like these
The sky is not falling
If you could let us know when you exit it would be great. As you say - I have much to learn. I want to see how you get this "quick 5% scalp".
Yeah but anybody who has interest in the stock knows that already. Like I said, I like the stock overall - but reaching a level where the PE and growth rates are not in line with each other. Plus, the new CEO situation is a risk I'm not certain I want to stick around for. It will probably turn out well - but with hundreds of other stocks to choose from I think it is time to lock in profits and look for one with less risks in the mix. Plus, some really big name stocks have had some really bad misses lately and earnings are coming up. Even if I lock in the profits I will probably keep a small position. Good luck to the longs.
You and randy are pretty funny. We will see if either of you are still around in a week or so.
Honestly, I doubt anyone with "clients" is posting on a yahoo message board - or at least I would hope not.
My guess is lower 60s soon then significantly higher while the shorts scream about how it shouldn't be happening.
Actually I am making really good money on this stock on the long side. Unfortunately it's not as much as I was making about two weeks ago - but I still do not have an interest in selling it.
Time will tell if your "quick 5% scalp" plan works out. My bet is that you will be taking a loss on this one.
There are tons of easy shorts in the market. Why anyone would choose to short a stock that constantly raises its dividend, buys back its own shares, etc is beyond me.
Since you keep saying I have a lot to learn I will be watching to see what I can learn from your illustrious trade.
You said you shorted 500 shares at 56.60. The stock is over 57 bucks now - and climbing. Therefore, you are underwater already. There are a few ways out of this for you. You can claim to have bought call options to offset your short position. You can watch your losses mount and then the first time it dips you can claim that you shorted a whole lot more shares at the peak. You can eventually cover and admit your losses. Very few shorts who post on message boards admit their losses. They usually come up with some semi-miraculous load of #$%$ about how they somehow made money even though a stock did nothing but go up after they went short. That's what I'm expecting here. Usually when a short has to announce his short position to the world then he doesn't have the stones to admit it when it turns out he was wrong. We will see which route you take.
So you admit that you are underwater already? Is this where you tell us that it is all good because you also bought a call option position that is offsetting your losses?
Well since you made the announcement why don't you go ahead and tell us the number of shares and the price so we can keep up with your losses? If you are like most shorts then you will lie and say it was at the highs of the day. Then after it becomes evident that you lost you will either go away altogether, change your screen name, or change what you claim the trade was for.
Your timing was awful. About the time your post hit the board would have been the time to buy. This is a great company and a great stock and it has already taken a significant haircut so you can bet the smart money is just now starting to roll IN - not out.
Dividends are rising. Shares on the market are falling. They missed on one quarter. Not a tragedy.
I'd split it. Buy half of what you want now and the other half after earnings. If you are in for the long haul it shouldn't matter much anyway unless it spikes up or down on earnings which I think is doubtful.