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Cohen & Steers Reit and Preferr Message Board

codehead321 13 posts  |  Last Activity: May 6, 2014 11:41 AM Member since: Feb 5, 2004
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  • Reply to

    market confidence in NCT deterioratig

    by ann_arbor_gal May 6, 2014 10:35 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 6, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    Then sell and go away! Nothing holding you back, right?

  • Reply to

    Numbers actually don't lie

    by ann_arbor_gal May 4, 2014 3:13 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 6, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Numbers don't lie but people who interpret the numbers do! You site the dividend rate in relation to the T Note without any perspective. See what I mean.

  • Reply to

    dividend does not appear sustainable

    by ann_arbor_gal May 2, 2014 5:04 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    I agree with you. NCT is doing things very quickly that most companies do over several years. It spinning off focused businesses that hopefully will be better valued by the market. In my opinion, management has one basic goal: increase shareholder value. With that goal, other things get in the way: accounting quirks, tax concepts, etc. But the goal is worth it, in my opinion. What's the alternative?

    The company just purchased 1 billion in real estate assets. Some of that was paid for with debt. So you have some interest expense and lots of depreciation. Depreciation is a non-cash expense.

  • Reply to

    dividend does not appear sustainable

    by ann_arbor_gal May 2, 2014 5:04 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    Its this type of investors that will leave, hopefully. Make bold statements without any support. Weak holders of the stock who will sell at the first sign of trouble (even when the trouble is minimal).

  • Reply to

    Golf and skiing.

    by bobstewart1952 May 2, 2014 3:13 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Not sure what the Brookdale model is and how it relates to NCT. I believe Brookdale is an operator and not a REIT.

  • Reply to

    NCT... what to do now?

    by nschwartz_99 May 2, 2014 11:42 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    I haven't listened to the call yet. Good strategy on Wes's part to explain it. But it looks like no one is listening.Not sure what they think he is hiding. Maybe this will get rid of the investors who are not paying close attention.

  • Reply to

    NCT... what to do now?

    by nschwartz_99 May 2, 2014 11:42 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    I don't believe there is any other way of spinning off the senior housing portfolio without it being a taxable distribution. But, it isn't as bad as it sounds. My basis is very low in NCT due to the NRZ spinoff. I would also speculate that NCT has very low earnings and profits due to the prior spinoffs and its consistent dividend. I also believe the FMV of the senior housing is close to their basis given their relatively recent acquisition. Therefore, I would suspect that upon a taxable distribution of the senior housing assets very little of that value would be an ordinary dividend. But since some of us have a low basis in NCT, we would have to recognize a capital gain for the amount in excess of our basis. Probably a 20% tax rate. If the senior housing assets approach the rate of other reits in that category, I will be very happy. It seems that Wes is adamant on making sure that happens.

  • Reply to

    NCT... what to do now?

    by nschwartz_99 May 2, 2014 11:42 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 2, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Not sure why the market reaction myself except to say the following. In a market such as this, open to the general public, there will be those who understand the significance of certain aspects of REITs and those who react based on a certain ideas held by the general public.

    For instance, GAAP income of a equity senior housing REIT at the beginning stages of its life is going to be "adversely" affected by depreciation more than a similar REIT that is mature. But in both cases, the better measure is one without depreciation expense. GAAP income is more useful if its intricacies are better understood in relation to the type of entity.

  • Reply to

    A question for you guys.

    by bobstewart1952 May 1, 2014 4:10 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 1, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    Not only are they coming out of a bankruptcy, I believe was also a merger included. I believe the management organization merged (economically) with the managed. I wondered how they did the comparisons, but since there was no qualifying statement, I assume it makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Earnings report for Q1:

    by zenidowgeba May 1, 2014 7:20 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 1, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    I too was a little taken aback and I have not heard the call. But I did a little snooping to see what was going on. The cash flow statement had an 9M adjustment downward relating to accrued expenses. Some of us understand the cash flow statement. If we consider this one adjustment, it signifies expense accrued (its really the change in the balance) in the prior period being paid in the current period. I would suspect that the next cash flow statement could either have a very reduce amount or it could actually add to cash flow! All is not lost.

  • Reply to

    NCT owns 25 million shares?

    by tradingbot2004 May 1, 2014 10:46 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 1, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    No, it is not correct. Only 30M outstanding.

  • Reply to

    Earnings report for Q1:

    by zenidowgeba May 1, 2014 7:20 AM
    codehead321 codehead321 May 1, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Did you read the release carefully? Did you see the part that the first quarter normally underperforms the other quarter and that this 1st quarter was actually better than last year's first quarter? I will let you figure out what this means.

  • Reply to

    New SPO

    by wallysboy1 Apr 24, 2014 4:37 PM
    codehead321 codehead321 Apr 24, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    In the prior year, they had to make an extra distribution at year end in order to distribute taxable income. What are the odds that this "dilution" results in lower earnings or cash flow per share? Answer: Very low.
    What are the odds that NRZ does a secondary only to cut dividends later in the year? Answer: very low.

RNP
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