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Clearwire Corporation (CLWRD) Message Board

cohsgrad 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2015 1:36 PM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Current Events

    by mpeg4_h264 Apr 14, 2015 4:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 16, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Your guess is as good as mine. I'm sure it varies a great deal from product to product with some losing money and others probably as high as 15-20%

  • Reply to

    Current Events

    by mpeg4_h264 Apr 14, 2015 4:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    Believe that was my alternative # 2. They simply do not earn enough margin to matter.

    Verizon uses Aviat (AVNW) and they are winding down their expansion as it is largely complete so that one is out too.

    Guess the big "pump" is on.

  • Reply to

    Current Events

    by mpeg4_h264 Apr 14, 2015 4:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    Yea that John Lawlor has been right about so many things. IR people are the best sources for information, don't bother with those regulatory filings.

    How is this for three alternative scenarios.

    1) France does not allow layoffs. Finland does. They keep ALU product line and jettison DRWI and Nokia personnel. Not that it would really hurt DRWI as they aren't getting any margin.

    2) Nokia bites the bullet and lays off a bunch of ALU personnel. Tells DRWI they have the business provided they keep margins where they are at. DRWI essentially gets nothing but sales (no margin).

    3) Nokia kind of loses control during integration and DRWI gets additional margin. This is the best case scenario.

  • Reply to

    2%

    by cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 12:41 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Makes more sense than bankruptcy filing. Save the professional fees and get the same basic end result.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Wow! Would've thought they could get common shareholders more than that.

  • Reply to

    Current Events

    by mpeg4_h264 Apr 14, 2015 4:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Verizon uses Aviat Networks (AVNW).

  • Reply to

    Ignore today... that's my opinion...

    by tfworl Apr 9, 2015 10:11 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 9, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Ever see the video where Pincus says he is a serial "failure?"

  • Reply to

    Lets get some discussion going guys!

    by dominiquecr0ssley Mar 31, 2015 12:12 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 2, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    20-F was filed today.

    They got their debt waiver as expected. Hadn't expected a problem but it is one less thing to be immediately worried about. There are some twists and turns in the calculations but they increased their working capital availability by a material amount which should relieve pressure.

    Closed their office in Venezuela and Argentina, or I sure thought they had locations there. They may have just shrank them to the point where they were no longer material. Slovakia lease expires in September 2015. That is good too as they no longer need the space.

    Head of North American Sales makes more than CEO. If he earned that this year, it sure doesn't jump out at me.

    Pretty dull filing aside from the debt changes.

  • Reply to

    Who in their right mind

    by vascular08 Apr 1, 2015 9:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 1, 2015 11:58 PM Flag

    There are momentum arguments for being short. Negative news cycles do drive shares below fair value plus if one wanted to bet against Puerto Rico I can't think of another way of doing it.

    Doesn't mean I think being short is a good probability based bet but not everyone is carefully weighing odds.

  • Reply to

    Lets get some discussion going guys!

    by dominiquecr0ssley Mar 31, 2015 12:12 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 1, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    Saw the Youtube video but that is it. Tend to not believe it when companies say they have better technology. Just about everyone says that.

    Even if it is better I don't think the market is willing to pay a substantial premium for the very best and price makes a big difference. As CRNT has lower costs than their competitors (I think anyway) they could theoretically do better and survive a long shakeout but they have made such horrible credit decisions over the last two years that it gets hard to evaluate. Even if a few companies go belly-up and the others combine it might just turn out like all the Wimax equipment providers with everyone ultimately losing money.

    Very hard to evaluate. I still own a good chunk of shares but that Venezuela loss bothered me because it did strike me as very poor management. The old CFO is gone though; maybe it was his fault.

  • Reply to

    Why Is DRWI so Cheap?

    by news_to_use Mar 31, 2015 3:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    Basically, DRWI didn't know what they were buying. They made some very basic rookie mistakes and if you go back to the time of the acquisition and some of the things I said about Italy and the acquisition, you'd know why I'm a bit arrogant here.

    Too bad I didn't do what Greedy did and stay short. I settled for pennies because of fear of another bubble.

  • Reply to

    Why Is DRWI so Cheap?

    by news_to_use Mar 31, 2015 3:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    and you're a rude person who hasn't spent much time reading their financials.

    You ignored the rebate of $13.8 million.
    You ignored the fact that they booked a large gain of $19 million upon the purchase and then, oops, write virtually all of it down in the same year so all your posting about intangible assets and earnouts is dated garbage.

    I'm not perfect, I get things wrong all the time but you are way off base.

  • Reply to

    Why Is DRWI so Cheap?

    by news_to_use Mar 31, 2015 3:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 5:43 PM Flag

    Hate to be a jerk but you are way off on the purchase of the NSN assets. They ultimately paid $12 million for around $22 million in tangible assets. Using the same methodology to value Dragonwave results in a value of around 16 cents a share.

    I'd buy at 30 cents knowing what I know today in the hope that they would have the good sense to sell-out.

  • Reply to

    Lets get some discussion going guys!

    by dominiquecr0ssley Mar 31, 2015 12:12 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Until the 20-F is filed I'm not sure what we would discuss.

    Share price has sure improved relative to DRWI and AVNW.

    Still no word on the debt covenant waiver.

    Currency changes have been going against them but tend to think AVNW is going to get hurt worse due to their Nigeria exposure.

    If DRWI can drop into 30 cent range maybe CRNT could do an acquisition. Suppose AVNW could too. Fewer competitors might help pricing but still hard to pull off.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    Should add that there is an extended legal process associated with raising rates. Even if they ultimately announce a deal to increase rates it will be six months or more before rates actually increase (excluding fuel price adjustments).

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 11:37 PM Flag

    It isn't awful or good news. It is neutral.

    Maybe the share price will decline, I don't know but I do know I sure wouldn't sell given the discounts currently embedded in the share price.

  • Reply to

    Are we out of the woods yet

    by fredmundi Mar 30, 2015 3:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Oh its not even being talked about. I'm just throwing out a situation that could apply if things turned out much worse than anticipated.

    It was one of the things I looked into though as I had looked into when doing my due diligence. It would not alter my view of the share value and is one of the things that MBIA bears are wrong about.

  • Reply to

    MBI up on Patriach partners news

    by junkie19952 Mar 30, 2015 11:29 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    There would be recoveries for fraud from Patriach. Not that it should matter to MBIA shareholders.

  • Reply to

    MBI up on Patriach partners news

    by junkie19952 Mar 30, 2015 11:29 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    It does not matter. MBIA executives have indicated that the surplus note holders essentially own MBIA Insurance.

    Probably time for the company to change the name of the parent company so people do not confuse the liabilities of MBIA Insurance with MBIA Inc.

  • Reply to

    Are we out of the woods yet

    by fredmundi Mar 30, 2015 3:20 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Panic selling over issues such as Zohar and Puerto Rico can happen again. It would be foolish but it could happen.

    Zohar is an absolute non-issue even if it drags MBIA Insurance into rehabilitation and Puerto Rico default loss possibilities are small relative to the potential losses already embedded in the share price.