Wed, Sep 3, 2014, 4:49 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 4 hrs 41 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

cohsgrad 316 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Feb 27, 2000
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by buckeye8810 6 hours ago

    Didn't sound super bullish to me. They clearly fudged on the cash generation for the quarter, they burned cash as ramping down receivables as a result of decreased sales (not DSO) is hardly generating cash. They also fudged on being cash flow break even for the first half of year. No one actually believes that do they???

    I expect executives to fudge all over the place in calls so I kind of let it pass but I don't disengage my brain either.

    The sale is interesting but it is pretty tough to do.

    You forgot to mention that the ERP implementation is in trouble. Didn't really provide any feedback on how bad it is but it obviously isn't going swimmingly. Not many do but when you are doing it in the middle of staffing and budget cuts things can absolutely fall apart sometimes.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago

    Yea they pumped a little but one should expect that to an extent. Didn't seem totally out of control to me.

    He isn't a liar or an idiot so I tend to like him but there is no denying the poor performance. Not that anyone has done well.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago
    cohsgrad cohsgrad 10 hours ago Flag

    Would CRNT buy them? I don't think anyone has ever done an acquisition in this sector that was actually successful so I tend to think not but I certainly don't understand the difficulties of integrating the two companies product lines.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago
    cohsgrad cohsgrad 10 hours ago Flag

    He is fudging a bit more than usual but overall much better than most CEOs who are all too comfortable lying to investors. They more or less said that they want consolidation so I think that means they are for sale or who knows, maybe they buy someone.

    10-K is going to be late. Not the end of the world.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago
    cohsgrad cohsgrad 11 hours ago Flag

    Their CEO has always seems honest and straightforward. I'd be surprised if he tries to spin it in any fashion other than it is what it is but maybe they will try and sell some stock.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago
    cohsgrad cohsgrad 11 hours ago Flag

    Looks like $1.8 million GAAP. Adjusted EBITDA of negative 5.4 million strips out restructuring and non-cash expenses. They are fundamentally not close to break-even but I suppose sales could take off at some point in time.

    Tough business. Too much capacity. Would be nice if someone or more than one would go bankrupt but that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad 12 hours ago
    cohsgrad cohsgrad 11 hours ago Flag

    Gonna burn around $4 to $6 million in first quarter holding balance sheet items steady. I don't think they will make it to cash flow break-even for the year, doesn't seem close. Break even (cash flow, not GAAP) looks like it requires around $100 million a quarter.

    They shouldn't be in any danger of bankruptcy but then again they aren't exactly on the verge of generating cash either.

  • but the shares aren't exactly expensive so who knows where it goes.

    Cash was generated as a result of collection of receivables. Means less cash in future but obviously lower receivables are something to be desired.

    Audit still doesn't seem to be done. They must be struggling with systems issues due to new ERP system and staff cuts.

  • Reply to

    4$ easy in 3 months

    by shavitmi Aug 27, 2014 2:54 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 28, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Upside potential doesn't come without downside risk.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Things change guy. Thought DRWI would go bankrupt or sell out. Not gonna happen now. I'm not bullish on DRWI, just saying the market is.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Not hard to understand. It is a pretty lousy business in a pretty lousy sector. They have never even come close to generating profits, they aren't particularly competitive in the sector overall and the sector stinks. If the sector ever stops stinking others will jump in and crowd them out.

    There are two public company competitors excluding big equipment providers. DRWI does trade at a pretty significant premium to AVNW. CRNT sells at about book value. CRNT has burnt lots of cash but they stand a chance of being profitable at least over the next year or two. Longer term I'm not sure any of them will make any money. With the exception of DRWI, I'd say the market agrees that none of them will make any money.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    You really can't say that as they did not provide enough information. They are still going to throw out a big loss at that revenue level unless margins absolutely skyrocketed. More likely is that the small (emphasis on small) increase in cash balances was the result of a decline in inventory or receivables. Possibly an increase in payables.

    Almost certainly not a disastrous quarter is about the most that I think can be said. Two months to close out an audit is a pretty good indication they are having accounting problems. They should have no problems providing guidance on the first quarter when they report.

  • Now we find out if they were fibbing before the PSC or not. They said they would fail the debt covenants by the end of the third quarter without rate decreases. Not that that should have made any difference given the fact that it is leverage (and not a lack of profitability) and large dividends that have led to the potential problem.

    Personally, I don't think they fail the debt covenant but it might be close. They can always issue more equity but if I were Ameren I sure wouldn't be in a negotiating kind of mood given Noranda's actions.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Google Noranda and Rate Case. You'll see the articles.

    The Missouri Public Service Commission formally denied Noranda Aluminum’s request for a special electric rate Wednesday, handing a victory to Ameren Missouri but leaving open the possibility of a compromise in another proceeding.

    The Southeast Missouri aluminum smelter had been seeking a roughly 25 percent reduction in its electricity bill, a cost that would have been passed on to the utility's other customers. As the largest ratepayer on Ameren's system, the 900-employee smelter already pays less per unit of electricity than any other ratepayer.

    The commission had previously indicated it did not support Noranda’s request for a lower electric rate. However, shortly after indicating its opposition, the Missouri Office of Public Counsel, which represents ratepayers, proposed a compromise that would give Noranda some of what it wanted. Noranda supported the compromise.

    Some commissioners said they found the proposal "intriguing," but declined to act on it, saying it could be addressed during Ameren's ongoing request to raise electric rates for all customers.

    “I hope that the parties will continue discussions and will use that agreement as a basis to raise this issue again in the currently pending rate case,” Commissioner Daniel Hall said during Wednesday's hearing.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    One thing they don't have is a bunch of idled smelters that could be restarted if aluminum prices actually did take off. Means they don't have the same leverage as others to increase in prices but then again I suppose they don't have to worry about carrying idled facilities as the thing is so profitable under their existing arrangements.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    The PRC denied their rate request.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    They can sell more equity if need be although obviously there would be substantial dilution. They have one of the most profitable smelters in the U.S.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    They successfully sold a bunch of shares. That is the sort of thing that gets priority on a resume over say generating profits for the shareholders.

    Time to party!

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by blues_fanatic Jul 24, 2014 8:15 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 14, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    Kind of sad to see Shop n Save's decline. At one time they were unique but no longer.

    Not sure what the franchise SAL stores are looking like these days.

  • Reply to

    20 large corporations paid no taxes in the 2Q

    by p2ialias Aug 13, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Actually, very good point. If it is claims against Indian sub I'd feel better but I seem to recollect it was an issue in the U.S.

AGO
24.49+0.34(+1.41%)Sep 2 4:01 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Conns Inc.
NasdaqGSTue, Sep 2, 2014 4:00 PM EDT
Compuware Corporation
NasdaqGSTue, Sep 2, 2014 4:00 PM EDT