Read through it last night. Don't remember everything but three points stood out.
*They have very severe warnings about liquidity that go beyond the normal boilerplate.
*They are finally committed to paying Nokia back. Around $1 million a quarter. Mixed feelings on that. While they really can't afford it obviously it is better than paying it back in one fell swoop.
Bankruptcy risk is real in the next three to six months. I think it is less than 50% but not immaterial. If they were shut out of the equity markets the risk would be 50/50 but the truth is that they aren't shut out.
*EBITDA loss was a little over $5 million with adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.4 million.
They have the strong margins from USCelullar business but that won't last.
Still have not read the conference call transcript. Maybe soon.
Hard to say. The market sure isn't helping them. I'm taking some dings in lots of places today. That is going to happen, just hope no collapse.
I had planned on liquidating some other positions and shorting DRWI in a big way if the share price skyrocketed but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.
Hey I learned Indonesia has a billion people today..... Peter Allen handled that question well. I liked the way he let it slide. I would have done that too because after all we all get things wrong. Talk to you later. I'm going to have a busy day elsewhere.
Missed the scripted part of call.
Reliance Jio is going to be done in second quarter. Obviously they might get more.
One analyst is a kiss-up to management. Pathetic.
They drew down on LOC and said they have $17 million in cash now so that is good. They are driving down inventory levels and borrowing to do this. Won't continue.
I've not heard any questions about stock offering. They didn't talk about previous one either. Maybe the question will come.
Management talks so slowwww.
You got some things right there regarding margins. They simply are not close to break even. They might not need an additional $32 million per quarter in revenue but it is in the ball park or as good as any guess.
Regarding the expenses, no I don't think you are right. Expenses will ramp if sales do. They are fudging but not lying.
Don't hate DRWI. Just a nice simple business that is easy to follow and I like to follow companies on the edge of bankruptcy and in turmoil. I follow a lot of other companies like that but with most of them there aren't people out there pumping away like they are on this one. Not to be rude but if you told me to sell I missed it and I wouldn't probably wouldn't listen anyway. I've been the only person in the room who was right too many times. The only problem is that when you are right like that, you can look foolish sometimes when you are wrong but what can one do if something generally works?
They are going to come to market with a share offering and while I still hope the sector goes into the stratosphere due to other positions, I don't think it will. Still, bubbles happen and DRWI is pretty close to bubble at 4 times book for a severely loss making company. I'm not worried at all. At least today I'm not.
That financing was at $1.20. Do not let management mislead you.
They had/have a good size deal with US Cellular that led to improved margins this quarter. I'd expect revenues from this deal for at least another quarter or two but how long I don't really know.
Down to $5 million in cash cushion. Hard to define cash burn but looks like around $5 million which is about what I expected. The hard part to figure out is inventory. They took that down $4 million so theoretically one could say they burned more but AP went down which goes the other way by $4 so lets call it $5 million burn.
Margin pushing $6 million. Assume at high end, 40% sales growth and you still burn $2 or $3 million.
Book value down to 60 cents a share.
I'd say I pretty much nailed it although I thought margin would be half a million lower. I won't claim that the share price won't go up but this is a very sick business that has to come to market with more shares.
People aren't starving and they are coming off of a very low base so I'm not sure how much pressure they are feeling to conform to developed world standards of conduct. Hard to say what will happen when one lives in North America.
Even though they are not cash flow positive and even though they are on the edge of running out of cash and even though they are sharing the Reliance Jio deal and even though they are selling at over three times book value, some people are still foolish enough to buy.
They carry a market cap equal to Ceragon and absolutely dwarf AVNW, two companies with severe challenges but yet still outperform DRWI by a wide margin from an operational perspective.
Will be interesting to see. We know they aren't going to be cash flow positive even with the big US Cellular deal but chances are they will be able to borrow against their revolver and try and spin it that way. That is what I would suggest to them anyway and I imagine they will do that.
No, you didn't miss anything. Some folks like to make stuff up.
Hard to say what the price will be. Obviously they are already out trying to sell it.
I'm still comfortable that they will do it by Sept/Oct. time frame but obviously they are doing all they can to minimize the damage.
It is only a draft but it is one part of the government saying something wrong happened. Another part of the government (one who administered the auction) says nothing went wrong.
Think about Lightsquared. From a business perspective, it is pretty similar. Does it mean the build won't happen? Definitely could be but more likely it means a delay. As for the probabilities, I have no idea.
How much revenue growth do they need to get to break even?
If they get to break even what is an appropriate valuation?
Went at $2.17. Order didn't get completely filled but who knows, maybe it goes up again.
Should have said what I had to pay. 21%
Cheaper than what I've had to pay in the past but still not cheap.