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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

cohsgrad 47 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2015 10:36 PM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Congrats Greedy

    by cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 8:27 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    Almost, woulda, coulda.

    Was ready to short the day they "announced" the partnership with Nokia but the share price didn't pop the way I expected and didn't get filled.

    I'll go long if it goes to 30-40 cent range.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 8:27 AM Flag

    You are right again.

    I feel the need to toss in, who gives a rip about sales? You have to have some margin if you are ever going to make money.

  • Reply to

    Lets get some discussion going guys!

    by dominiquecr0ssley Mar 31, 2015 12:12 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Until the 20-F is filed I'm not sure what we would discuss.

    Share price has sure improved relative to DRWI and AVNW.

    Still no word on the debt covenant waiver.

    Currency changes have been going against them but tend to think AVNW is going to get hurt worse due to their Nigeria exposure.

    If DRWI can drop into 30 cent range maybe CRNT could do an acquisition. Suppose AVNW could too. Fewer competitors might help pricing but still hard to pull off.

  • Reply to

    Why Is DRWI so Cheap?

    by news_to_use Mar 31, 2015 3:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    and you're a rude person who hasn't spent much time reading their financials.

    You ignored the rebate of $13.8 million.
    You ignored the fact that they booked a large gain of $19 million upon the purchase and then, oops, write virtually all of it down in the same year so all your posting about intangible assets and earnouts is dated garbage.

    I'm not perfect, I get things wrong all the time but you are way off base.

  • Reply to

    Lets get some discussion going guys!

    by dominiquecr0ssley Mar 31, 2015 12:12 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 1, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    Saw the Youtube video but that is it. Tend to not believe it when companies say they have better technology. Just about everyone says that.

    Even if it is better I don't think the market is willing to pay a substantial premium for the very best and price makes a big difference. As CRNT has lower costs than their competitors (I think anyway) they could theoretically do better and survive a long shakeout but they have made such horrible credit decisions over the last two years that it gets hard to evaluate. Even if a few companies go belly-up and the others combine it might just turn out like all the Wimax equipment providers with everyone ultimately losing money.

    Very hard to evaluate. I still own a good chunk of shares but that Venezuela loss bothered me because it did strike me as very poor management. The old CFO is gone though; maybe it was his fault.

  • Reply to

    Why Is DRWI so Cheap?

    by news_to_use Mar 31, 2015 3:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 31, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    Basically, DRWI didn't know what they were buying. They made some very basic rookie mistakes and if you go back to the time of the acquisition and some of the things I said about Italy and the acquisition, you'd know why I'm a bit arrogant here.

    Too bad I didn't do what Greedy did and stay short. I settled for pennies because of fear of another bubble.

  • Reply to

    Congrats Greedy

    by cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 8:27 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    I agree that they will likely become insolvent but they have spent a good portion of their existence in such a state. For some reason they are able to keep raising money.

    Tend to think someone would buy the assets just to keep them from winding up in the hands of private equity. On one of the recent share issuances the legal documents were drafted such that it was an either/or transaction. In other words they almost sold out rather than issue shares. Doesn't mean they had a solid buyer but they definitely were talking to someone. That is the reason I would go long at 30 cents. Might lose it all but I make bets like that.

  • Reply to

    2%

    by cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 12:41 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Makes more sense than bankruptcy filing. Save the professional fees and get the same basic end result.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Apr 15, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Wow! Would've thought they could get common shareholders more than that.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Apr 30, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    AGO has more PR exposure than MBIA and of that exposure MBIA carries more PREPA. There are differences in the different classes of debt and AGO has more non-PREPA debt so I can't say I'm shocked that they are moving down more than MBIA as PREPA isn't reliant on tax revenues, it relies on utility revenues.

    The decision to not pass the VAT (or GST) theoretically means the PR debt has more risk today than it did yesterday. Bond prices certainly are moving in a fashion that indicates this. Now is moving to a 10.7% yield from 10.3% huge? Most MUNI people would say yes but honestly I can't get worked up about it.

    Now not passing the VAT. That I can get worked up about. I think that it is bad for everyone but maybe it makes it easier to increase utility rates?

    In the end it becomes a great big muddle but the price already incorporates significant write-downs on PR. I think it is a given that MBIA takes a hit in the quarter coming up on the financials. As headlines move stocks, rather than fundamentals, I can't say the share price doesn't go down but as I said, the share price assumes significant write-downs so maybe the share price doesn't get impacted.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Feb 27, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    The gift that just keeps on giving. Pretty soon so many people will be following them around doing the exact opposite of whatever they say that their hit jobs will have no impact.

  • Reply to

    Reviews for Amira rice on Amazon

    by cwfarley77 Feb 13, 2015 6:57 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Feb 26, 2015 11:19 PM Flag

    Shorts will also post false reviews on Amazon as part of effort to discredit company.

    Look at AVG, a previous target and you will find lots of negative reviews and yet the review by CNET itself absolutely raves about the product.

    I'm not saying PP is behind all of the negative reviews but yes I believe short sellers likely are. Even if they aren't it isn't like the US is much of a market for their products anyway.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 3, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    Yea you are right. Now they need ten days in a row above a dollar.

  • Reply to

    I just wanted to go on record here...

    by smelky_kid Feb 18, 2015 11:24 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 16, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    You are right. They won't sell out as it doesn't make sense to do so.

  • Reply to

    GET RID OF MBIA

    by tommiegun53 Mar 26, 2015 10:31 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 26, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Assuming that is correct, I'd say the condition runs both ways.

  • Reply to

    Sean Carney (Director)

    by fredmundi Mar 27, 2015 8:07 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 27, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Those were not sales in the normal sense of the term. They had warrants to purchase at $30 a share that were acquired early in the financial crisis that expired worthless.

  • Reply to

    Share buyback

    by fredmundi Mar 27, 2015 11:20 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 27, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Trading around 57% of par. Don't have any opinion on whether I'd buy them as I don't understand the structured finance products well enough to have an opinion. Fairly sure MBIA management thinks they are trading too high based on statements in the last call.

    MBIA would buy them if the price was right. What that price would be I don't know.

  • Reply to

    Surplus Notes

    by fredmundi Mar 27, 2015 10:33 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 27, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    The surplus notes may be accounted for as debt but management said they in effect owned the structured finance insurer in the last call. Not sure who owns the surplus notes now.

    Pretty hilarious. The banks were right that the entity was "built to fail" but being right doesn't always mean you win in a court of law. State of New York should be ashamed of itself.

  • Reply to

    Congrats Greedy

    by cohsgrad Mar 5, 2015 8:27 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 10, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    All the years of expecting this to happen and finally seeing it is nice. Only wish I had the courage to stay short.

    Who knows, maybe it bumps up in short-term but over the medium term I don't see how it trades above 50 cents.

  • Reply to

    MBI up on Patriach partners news

    by junkie19952 Mar 30, 2015 11:29 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Mar 30, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    There would be recoveries for fraud from Patriach. Not that it should matter to MBIA shareholders.

AGO
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