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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

cohsgrad 182 posts  |  Last Activity: 52 minutes ago Member since: Feb 27, 2000
  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 6, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    It is good news but I wouldn't go that far until I read the terms and covenants. They might not be able to access it if CEO left, they might have stiff earnings requirements, they might not be able to draw down unless certain requirements are met., it might be cancelled if someone at firm is indicted.

    Have to read the agreement before declaring victory.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 5, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Will be interesting to see. You know I don't think much of management and that they have crossed the line into outright lying at times but I still can't bring myself to call them fraudulent.

    Wonder if Canadian companies can be sued in the same fashion as American companies? I'm pretty sure they could be as they are covered by SEC regulations but if the lawsuit is brought in Ontario it might present difficulties. I'm too busy to do it now but that might be interesting to look into.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Aug 5, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    I tend to think that given the way the share price has hugged the issuance price there is a chance the over-allotment won't be exercised. Perhaps that is just wishful thinking.

  • Reply to

    Seuper Valu will be a buy for v ery long time.

    by mycakewalk1 Jul 30, 2014 1:59 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 4, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Who is the new competitor?

  • Reply to

    why?!?!

    by anilkoomar Jul 30, 2014 3:03 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 2, 2014 5:44 PM Flag

    Maybe someone would buy them but I sure can't think of who it would be.

    Consolidation makes the most sense. DRWI came within a hair of selling out in the share offering before the latest but it is difficult when your shares are so overvalued. Now that they have done the latest offering it could be several years before they burn through it all again so everyone gets to keep their jobs and the shareholders get to continue watching them burn through the cash.

  • Reply to

    Mongolia foreign investment craters 70%

    by navin_r_johnnson Aug 1, 2014 11:53 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 2, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Would be nice to have a feel for what the Mongolian people and their leaders think. On the one hand, it is a 100 year mine so they have to plan for the long-term but maybe they don't really want it? Hard to imagine not wanting it but it isn't completely unheard of for people to turn their back on development.

  • revenues going to be flat? How can revenues be flat next quarter? I'd buy if it weren't for that.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Aug 1, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Interesting situation. If they report good results it has a negative impact on rate request. If they have bad results, it improves their prospects. I don't know how anyone could get uptight one way or the other; it makes no difference that I can see.

  • Reply to

    Closing Day

    by cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:52 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 1, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Good for them. They closed it.

  • Reply to

    Closing Day

    by cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:52 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    Oh yea. Timing is important.

    I don't think they will have any trouble closing but they sure did have trouble closing the last one so I don't think one can say for sure until the money is in hand. Having said that, they can always just adjust terms, there is little question they can get some money.

  • Reply to

    Priced @ $2

    by cohsgrad Jul 30, 2014 9:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    Hope so. Spoke to IR who said that Zohar Zisapel (Chairman) had participated in the offering. Then again, he has so much money he can afford to be generous.

  • Reply to

    Priced @ $2

    by cohsgrad Jul 30, 2014 9:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    For the most part yea. Embarrassing to admit but what can you do?

  • Reply to

    Closing Day

    by cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:52 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Day is "on or about" August 1st. Would expect an announcement tomorrow, if not, it might be time to seriously worry.

  • Reply to

    why?!?!

    by anilkoomar Jul 30, 2014 3:03 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    They may have just made a mistake in terms of thinking that the LOC was sufficient although that is a little bit hard to believe given the short time frame from the last conference call. From the last call:

    Russell Frederick - Vice President, Finance, Chief Financial Officer
    Yes, so the dynamics on cash in Q1 were—we used about $6 million of cash, and then we accessed $2.5 million of cash from our credit line for a net—I think the actual number is about 3.4 in terms of the cash balance coming down. We expect similar dynamics in our second quarter, so I would expect the cash balance at the end of the second quarter to be somewhere between $12 million and $13 million. So I think there is progress over time in terms of bringing the burn down, and subject to the comments Peter just made, we’re just going to continue on that journey.

  • Reply to

    Priced @ $2

    by cohsgrad Jul 30, 2014 9:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    I sure thought that there would be a run-down in AR as the South American receivables declined. To me that is cash in the door assuming they don't give similar terms elsewhere.

    It is conceivable that they have a year or two surge in business following which things decline again. There seems to be entirely too much competition which is certainly good for consumers but not good for businesses. If anyone can earn a decent profit in the segment I think it is CRNT but I'm not sure anyone can and even if they did, Cisco and others would jump in at that time.

  • Reply to

    Needham Scam and Pump...

    by your.jim72 Jul 31, 2014 8:17 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Would add that the Needham analyst doesn't understand the South American issues CRNT has been dealing with. I don't claim to completely understand them either but I'm confident I understand them better than him because I would have written about them.

  • Reply to

    Needham Scam and Pump...

    by your.jim72 Jul 31, 2014 8:17 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Hard to say. They were saying that this was their "target price" and not necessarily "fair value." In other words they were saying we expect a bubble or most likely we think business is about to improve to the point where the share price will move to $8 a share. They also didn't say when this would occur.

    Now they certainly should reduce their target price although I don't know that they will. There have been some negative events since they announced their target. Dragonwave and Aviat were tottering on edge of bankruptcy. Dragonwave isn't anymore. Aviat really wasn't tottering but they were hurting (and likely still are).

    Certainly Needham wanted the business too. That is an incentive that can't be denied.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    Recollection is that this is the day of closing for the "unit" offering.

  • Reply to

    Rate Adjustment News

    by cohsgrad Jul 25, 2014 9:36 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Just a question of how politicized the PSC is in my opinion. If they are politicized they will grant it, if not, they deny it.

  • Reply to

    Rate Adjustment News

    by cohsgrad Jul 25, 2014 9:36 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Jul 31, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    There is another article today. Noranda is saying they support the "compromise."

    Noranda has joined a proposed settlement that would cut its annual electric bill of roughly $170 million by about 16 percent.
    The New Madrid aluminum smelter had asked the Missouri Public Service Commission in February for more than a 25 percent cut in its electric rate.

    “We support this proposal as an acceptable outcome in our rate design petition, and have no further comment until the PSC issues its ruling in the case,” Noranda spokesman John Parker said in an emailed statement.

    The PSC has not yet ruled on Noranda’s rate design request, but last week commissioners indicated they opposed the aluminum producer’s proposal.

    Noranda filed both the rate design and an overearnings case against St. Louis utility Ameren Missouri in February as part of a strategy to reduce its electric bill. Electricity makes up about one-third of the costs at the primary aluminum smelter Noranda operates in Missouri’s Bootheel.

    The compromise on Noranda’s electric rate was originally proposed by the Missouri Office of Public Counsel last week. While the office traditionally advocates on behalf of lower rates for electric customers, the proposed Noranda rate would be offset by a small increase in electric rates for other customers, probably less than 2 percent.

    Acting Public Counsel Dustin Allison, an aide to Gov. Jay Nixon recently appointed to the position as a replacement for longtime public counsel Lewis Mills, has adopted Noranda’s argument that utility customers will be worse off should the smelter close and leave Ameren’s system.

AGO
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