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AFC Enterprises, Inc. Message Board

cohsgrad 151 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    P/S is half the next lowest competitor

    by techinvest14 Oct 28, 2014 1:06 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    They have much more debt and generate lower returns than others. Doesn't mean it is a lousy company.

    I'm impressed they survived and are thriving to an extent.

  • Reply to

    Their press release is unbelievable..

    by jctuttle14 Oct 28, 2014 9:58 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    They are generating decent returns and operating the business fairly well.

    They didn't mention what their accrual for Tessera was did they? Going to wait until the 10-Q is filed. That is a bit of a crock. Also, there were several one-time items that went in their favor. Pricing with Apple must be really tough as their production volumes were way up without much of a corresponding revenue bump.

  • Reply to

    Fibbing before the PSC

    by cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:37 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Bet ya money they do not violate those debt covenants or even come close. Not that I have the nerve to buy the shares.

  • Reply to

    About Ceragon Networks......(CRNT)

    by painthufferone Oct 27, 2014 8:45 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Would like to add that I have a hard time getting too excited about one or two quarters results. There needs to be something that indicates results will be strong a year, two years, ten years down the road. Unless someone goes out of business, it may very well be a commodity pricing for everyone.

    Hopefully Dragonwave will be gone by the end of 2015 but I honestly don't think it will happen.

  • Reply to

    Is AMKR a screaming buy?

    by smcisaac56 Oct 11, 2014 8:06 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Seems correct. I've not read the analyst reports but I think everyone thought that Apple would drive things through the roof and the truth is that only severe capacity constraints can drive earnings extraordinarily high and it is pretty easy to add capacity so that doesn't last long.

    I think they managed things reasonably well although I wish they would have made plain the impact of the patent problem.

  • Reply to

    About Ceragon Networks......(CRNT)

    by painthufferone Oct 27, 2014 8:45 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 28, 2014 12:24 AM Flag

    Ceragon gives it to you in chunks. Revenues, margins, SG&A. You can guess as to taxes, other and finance expenses (South America devaluation and remittance taxes). Bottom-line, yea they have said they will be profitable in fourth quarter. Of course, if Argentina were to freeze all capital flows or something else like that they will show major unexpected expenses. They don't know whether they will be profitable but at least they plan on it whereas DRWI just prays that something positive will happen.

    There have been no disasters in South America to my knowledge and assuming the Argentinian receivables are mostly in dollars they should be around break even in third quarter, plus or minus $5 million.

  • Reply to

    Where's my dividend?

    by cncmachinepro Oct 27, 2014 7:59 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 27, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    Was an interesting decision but there was a ton of pressure on the share price. It would certainly be much lower were it not for the promise (and actual fact of) of stock buybacks. Earnings don't really support $12 a share.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Date: Oct 28 - Nov 3 (EST.)

    by weissangle Oct 27, 2014 10:18 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 27, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    They are struggling with the prior year-end, makes it tough to report first quarter. Imagine they will get something out soon but then again I would have expected the 10-K by now too.

  • It might turn out to be worth nothing but $67.5 million is sure cheap.

  • Reply to

    Why is greedy right so far

    by beekay425 Oct 21, 2014 7:24 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 22, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Just to add one other point, why is it that the share price was up yesterday? Did others have knowledge of the press release that was to be issued?

    Few things are more irritating (fudging is worse) that companies that leak information. It is insider trading folks and it takes place on a regular basis with Dragonwave.

  • Reply to

    Why is greedy right so far

    by beekay425 Oct 21, 2014 7:24 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 22, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    If only press releases equaled margins and sales Dragonwave would be one of the largest companies in the world.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 21, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Just basing that on fact that everyone has lost lots of money with no companies being profitable. That and statements from Cisco that they are not in the business because there are no margins. It doesn't necessarily have to be that there is excess capacity in the plants (which with outsourced models are flexible). The problem is that there are too many companies chasing too few opportunities.

    DRWI's finances are the weakest and management consistently fudges on EVERYTHING so I think they are untrustworthy. They have also made plenty of stupid "rookie" decisions such as acquisition of NSN and whatever that Israeli acquisition was. Every strategic move that they have made was nothing short of blundering so combine that with the weak operational results and you can be pretty sure you don't have a team capable of making money on a sustained basis. AVNW's management is honest and trustworthy but they have never really come close to making money. CRNT has made money on occasion but they blundered badly in South America. I do not understand why they sold so much product in Venezuela without having currency protection and their business model involves extension of credit terms that are pretty unusual. Still, I think their management team is very solid.

    So basically, DRWI has poor management, poor operational performance and they fudge. I have no idea if one company's products are better than another or if being 12-18 months ahead of competition as CRNT claims makes any difference to buyers. I don't think DRWI is trustworthy or capable of performing well on a consistent basis so unless they give the product away I don't know why anyone would buy from them. In the end, where products aren't differentiated the most efficient producer is the survivor and a few percentage point advantage operationally they will crush the others unless the market continues to give them capital.

    So in the end, it looks grim for all as long as market keeps giving money to loser companies.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 20, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    That is a misleading post but sometimes posting something provocative is useful.

    I think the sector is in a world of hurt due to excess capacity. Dragonwave is the weakest company and had it gone out of business either by selling out to one of the companies or going bankrupt the sector would be more profitable (or lose less money). Does not appear as though that is going to happen anytime soon but someday it will happen. It literally could be a decade if people continue to throw money at businesses losing money.

    Ceragon has a chance (emphasis on chance) of succeeding. Aviat doesn't have much of a chance but maybe a good restructuring with new management would change that. Even Dragonwave with new management might stand a chance but as long as the share price remains sky-high it makes it very difficult to make changes. The one caveat for Dragonwave I would add is that if for some reason NSN decided to let them earn some o.k. margins. I'm not sure why they would given that they have never done so in the past but if that happened I think DRWI would become viable. Right now people are paying an awful lot of money for DRWI shares for reasons that I do not see. At least with CRNT you stand a chance of making money. With AVNW prices a few months ago that was true too.

  • Reply to

    liquidation

    by dsommerl Oct 14, 2014 2:16 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 20, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    Perhaps I am wrong but I don't think there is any way to avoid the bankruptcy now as the court controls things and indirectly Wells Fargo as they are the ones who provided the DIP financing which apparently they are using to at least in part pay back earlier loans.

    I think the only real goals of equity holders at this point in time are (1) make sure that the new board and executives do not benefit financially from the bankruptcy or at least not too extravagantly and do not purchase any assets and agree not to participate in future management of those assets, (2) conduct a reasonable inquiry to make sure they didn't commit fraud (I don't think they did) and (3) have a fair auction and it seems like that is going to take place.

  • Reply to

    liquidation

    by dsommerl Oct 14, 2014 2:16 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 20, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    That is probably a good idea. Someone also needs to petition the court for an equity holders committee.

  • Reply to

    Stalking Horse Reply

    by superbowl6wins Oct 19, 2014 3:54 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 19, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    There is no comparing the Kodak bankruptcy and Alco bankruptcy. Alco is far simpler from a legal and valuation perspective. Not that I could tell you what the value of the assets are.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 18, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    You can't file a criminal suit. You can sue for breach of fiduciary duty and fraud.

    Doesn't mean you will succeed but they do need to answer some questions and commit to not being part of any purchase of assets from the bankrupt entity.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 16, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Those guys were about the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. Don't know how you managed to stay around.

  • Reply to

    liquidation

    by dsommerl Oct 14, 2014 2:16 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Oct 15, 2014 9:14 PM Flag

    Seriously?

    There are lots of ways to make money. First there are the basics. Salaries and bonuses. No one really begrudges them this but then there are other potential compensation items that are more problematic.

    The professionals working the case and the managers are almost certainly joined at the hip. They won't rebate any fees or anything illegal like that but there is a play ball sort of aspect that probably exists. They will work together in the future and there will be plenty of free meals and sporting events to attend during the bankruptcy process.

    There will be incentive payments of some kind even if things really go in the toilet. A year of compensation seems like the minimum they will get.

    The big goal however is to take the thing private without unprofitable stores, without common shareholders and with bond holders taking a haircut. Private equity. Operate for a few years and then sell-out for hundreds of millions of dollars. This wouldn't be so bad had they came in after the bankruptcy but coming in before and then doing it seems pretty aggressive but it is conceivable. Would also be tolerable had they owned some common stock that was wiped out but my understanding is that they don't.

    Not saying there is anything inappropriate taking place. I have no way of knowing but it is conceivable.

  • These guys are pretty exposed to western Africa aren't they? Wonder if the current health crisis will impact operations.

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