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AFC Enterprises, Inc. Message Board

cohsgrad 151 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    4$ easy in 3 months

    by shavitmi Aug 27, 2014 2:54 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 28, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Upside potential doesn't come without downside risk.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    but the shares aren't exactly expensive so who knows where it goes.

    Cash was generated as a result of collection of receivables. Means less cash in future but obviously lower receivables are something to be desired.

    Audit still doesn't seem to be done. They must be struggling with systems issues due to new ERP system and staff cuts.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Gonna burn around $4 to $6 million in first quarter holding balance sheet items steady. I don't think they will make it to cash flow break-even for the year, doesn't seem close. Break even (cash flow, not GAAP) looks like it requires around $100 million a quarter.

    They shouldn't be in any danger of bankruptcy but then again they aren't exactly on the verge of generating cash either.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Looks like $1.8 million GAAP. Adjusted EBITDA of negative 5.4 million strips out restructuring and non-cash expenses. They are fundamentally not close to break-even but I suppose sales could take off at some point in time.

    Tough business. Too much capacity. Would be nice if someone or more than one would go bankrupt but that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    Their CEO has always seems honest and straightforward. I'd be surprised if he tries to spin it in any fashion other than it is what it is but maybe they will try and sell some stock.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    He is fudging a bit more than usual but overall much better than most CEOs who are all too comfortable lying to investors. They more or less said that they want consolidation so I think that means they are for sale or who knows, maybe they buy someone.

    10-K is going to be late. Not the end of the world.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Would CRNT buy them? I don't think anyone has ever done an acquisition in this sector that was actually successful so I tend to think not but I certainly don't understand the difficulties of integrating the two companies product lines.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    Yea they pumped a little but one should expect that to an extent. Didn't seem totally out of control to me.

    He isn't a liar or an idiot so I tend to like him but there is no denying the poor performance. Not that anyone has done well.

  • Reply to

    Conference call

    by buckeye8810 Sep 2, 2014 10:09 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 11:46 PM Flag

    Didn't sound super bullish to me. They clearly fudged on the cash generation for the quarter, they burned cash as ramping down receivables as a result of decreased sales (not DSO) is hardly generating cash. They also fudged on being cash flow break even for the first half of year. No one actually believes that do they???

    I expect executives to fudge all over the place in calls so I kind of let it pass but I don't disengage my brain either.

    The sale is interesting but it is pretty tough to do.

    You forgot to mention that the ERP implementation is in trouble. Didn't really provide any feedback on how bad it is but it obviously isn't going swimmingly. Not many do but when you are doing it in the middle of staffing and budget cuts things can absolutely fall apart sometimes.

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 3, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    I just don't get Needham's upgrade. The only scenario I can see $2 is a bubble CRNT can't pay that much unless their share price went to $4 or $5 a share.

    Who knows, maybe they think the cycle is going to be so strong they wind up being profitable. Hard to see that happening.

  • Reply to

    Fibbing before the PSC

    by cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:37 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 3, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    I think it was a combination of things. There is the article on the layoffs, the plan to re-file the rate decrease request and Century Aluminum has been skyrocketing.

    It is tough to lose a job but I don't for a minute believe it was because of the rate decision. The company might say it is and they might have even agreed to keep the jobs if the subsidized rate had been provided but Apollo is out for Apollo and no one else. If they can do the job without someone they will do so and they will make those investments in the bootheel once clarity on the rate is provided. I hope the clarity is denial of any further rate reductions but we will see.

  • Reply to

    Fibbing before the PSC

    by cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:37 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 3, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Should add that I would be fine with a rate reduction provided the price is tied to aluminum pricing. If ratepayers subsidize them they oughta get some upside.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Sep 9, 2014 1:36 AM Flag

    Have not given it much thought but CRNT will have a mild breeze at their back on an operating basis as the Shekel as weakened against the dollar recently. Don't know what percentage of their costs are Shekel derived but know it isn't an immaterial amount.

    Might add a million dollars to September quarter.

    When there is no news, you gotta write about what you know about.

  • Reply to

    Shekel Weakness

    by cohsgrad Sep 9, 2014 1:36 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 9, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Too bad they didn't hedge away the Argentine and Venezuelan currency risks!

  • Reply to

    Canada deal PR today

    by gam_65 Sep 9, 2014 3:05 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 9, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I don't know the answer to your questions but I'm confident that it isn't like this is a game changing deal. They have to do this sort of thing regularly in order to drive profitability. Besides, when people say a deal is a "game-changer" they want to sell you some stock.

  • Reply to

    AVNW continues to move higher

    by captainandthekid1 Sep 11, 2014 12:22 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 11, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Yea but the increase in share price makes such a buyout more difficult.

  • Reply to

    Someone wants out bad !!!!!!

    by painthufferone Sep 15, 2014 1:39 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 15, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Asset prices can collapse in a moment. Always good to be reminded of this even though it is painful.

  • cohsgrad by cohsgrad Sep 16, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    One director bought 50,000 shares.

  • Reply to

    Steel Partners Holdings L.P. has been accumulating

    by cherk_on Sep 11, 2014 5:47 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 16, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Why would it indicate a buyout? They are just speculating, maybe it works out for them, maybe not.

  • Reply to

    Steel Partners Holdings L.P. has been accumulating

    by cherk_on Sep 11, 2014 5:47 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Sep 16, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    This isn't a company that is sitting on assets with management siphoning off value. It is a company that likely has no no significant value where management has indicated that they are willing to sell.

    Unfortunately, there has not been a single acquisition in the industries history that hasn't been a financial failure although they certainly have ranged from disastrous to merely not very good. If they are to be bought it will have to be cheap and Steel Partner's brings nothing to the table.

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