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SunCoke Energy Inc. Message Board

cohsgrad 178 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 12:02 PM Member since: Feb 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Things change guy. Thought DRWI would go bankrupt or sell out. Not gonna happen now. I'm not bullish on DRWI, just saying the market is.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Not hard to understand. It is a pretty lousy business in a pretty lousy sector. They have never even come close to generating profits, they aren't particularly competitive in the sector overall and the sector stinks. If the sector ever stops stinking others will jump in and crowd them out.

    There are two public company competitors excluding big equipment providers. DRWI does trade at a pretty significant premium to AVNW. CRNT sells at about book value. CRNT has burnt lots of cash but they stand a chance of being profitable at least over the next year or two. Longer term I'm not sure any of them will make any money. With the exception of DRWI, I'd say the market agrees that none of them will make any money.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 21, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    You really can't say that as they did not provide enough information. They are still going to throw out a big loss at that revenue level unless margins absolutely skyrocketed. More likely is that the small (emphasis on small) increase in cash balances was the result of a decline in inventory or receivables. Possibly an increase in payables.

    Almost certainly not a disastrous quarter is about the most that I think can be said. Two months to close out an audit is a pretty good indication they are having accounting problems. They should have no problems providing guidance on the first quarter when they report.

  • Now we find out if they were fibbing before the PSC or not. They said they would fail the debt covenants by the end of the third quarter without rate decreases. Not that that should have made any difference given the fact that it is leverage (and not a lack of profitability) and large dividends that have led to the potential problem.

    Personally, I don't think they fail the debt covenant but it might be close. They can always issue more equity but if I were Ameren I sure wouldn't be in a negotiating kind of mood given Noranda's actions.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    Google Noranda and Rate Case. You'll see the articles.

    The Missouri Public Service Commission formally denied Noranda Aluminum’s request for a special electric rate Wednesday, handing a victory to Ameren Missouri but leaving open the possibility of a compromise in another proceeding.

    The Southeast Missouri aluminum smelter had been seeking a roughly 25 percent reduction in its electricity bill, a cost that would have been passed on to the utility's other customers. As the largest ratepayer on Ameren's system, the 900-employee smelter already pays less per unit of electricity than any other ratepayer.

    The commission had previously indicated it did not support Noranda’s request for a lower electric rate. However, shortly after indicating its opposition, the Missouri Office of Public Counsel, which represents ratepayers, proposed a compromise that would give Noranda some of what it wanted. Noranda supported the compromise.

    Some commissioners said they found the proposal "intriguing," but declined to act on it, saying it could be addressed during Ameren's ongoing request to raise electric rates for all customers.

    “I hope that the parties will continue discussions and will use that agreement as a basis to raise this issue again in the currently pending rate case,” Commissioner Daniel Hall said during Wednesday's hearing.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    One thing they don't have is a bunch of idled smelters that could be restarted if aluminum prices actually did take off. Means they don't have the same leverage as others to increase in prices but then again I suppose they don't have to worry about carrying idled facilities as the thing is so profitable under their existing arrangements.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    The PRC denied their rate request.

  • Reply to

    What is wrong ? Can Nor sell some equity ?

    by jakeswave2 Aug 20, 2014 2:18 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    They can sell more equity if need be although obviously there would be substantial dilution. They have one of the most profitable smelters in the U.S.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 20, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    They successfully sold a bunch of shares. That is the sort of thing that gets priority on a resume over say generating profits for the shareholders.

    Time to party!

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by blues_fanatic Jul 24, 2014 8:15 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 14, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    Kind of sad to see Shop n Save's decline. At one time they were unique but no longer.

    Not sure what the franchise SAL stores are looking like these days.

  • Reply to

    20 large corporations paid no taxes in the 2Q

    by p2ialias Aug 13, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 14, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Actually, very good point. If it is claims against Indian sub I'd feel better but I seem to recollect it was an issue in the U.S.

  • Reply to

    20 large corporations paid no taxes in the 2Q

    by p2ialias Aug 13, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 14, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    Good point.

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 13, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Hope you were in Texas. I don't honestly know the rules but many years ago I was in Texas (my brother was a cop there) and a guy pulled up in his truck drinking a beer. I asked my brother if he needed to arrest him and he told me it wasn't against the law.

    Shocked me but I'm just a little bit on the cautious side.

  • Reply to

    20 large corporations paid no taxes in the 2Q

    by p2ialias Aug 13, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 13, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    Lots of companies are aggressive when it comes to taxes and lots of companies, including EBIX have exposure. A fair number of companies get investigated by the SEC too.

    Not a lot of companies short Microsoft when it comes to license fees and not a lot of companies get investigated by the U.S. Attorneys. There is still a possibility, although probably small that RR will get in trouble.

  • Reply to

    16,208,206 SHORT INTEREST AS OF jULY 31

    by j.gosai Aug 11, 2014 4:40 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 12, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    Any idea what interest rate the brokerage firms are charging to borrow the shares? Would think that the shares are hard to borrow but maybe not.

    Also, is anyone being paid by their brokerage firm to loan the shares to short-sellers? If yes, what sort of rate are you getting?

  • cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 11, 2014 9:00 PM Flag

    Not very convincing on the rate case. Profits were pretty good in my opinion.

    Maybe they oughta think about suspending the dividend if they want to convince the PSC they are in a liquidity crisis.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by blues_fanatic Jul 24, 2014 8:15 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 10, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    So Save A Lot had EBITDA of around $66 million last quarter. Annualize that and multiply by 8 or 9 (maybe even 10 at outside) and what do you get? Maybe $2.5 billion? Sure a great deal more than what was talked about when the Albertson's deal took place but maybe it is possible. Is that crazy?

    Sure sounds crazy to me but that is the kind of number I'm thinking is conceivable based on the possible Grocery Outlet transaction. Just baffling. Obviously very speculative back-of-the-envelope sort of calculation. Wonder what SAL is carried at?

  • Reply to

    Stuart's idea

    by shanti.ashwin Aug 8, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 9, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    Sounds like a derivative action would be more appropriate given your concerns.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by blues_fanatic Jul 24, 2014 8:15 AM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 8, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    Folks might want to take a look at the Wall Street Journal and look for the article about Grocery Outlet Inc. I'm flabbergasted by the premium private equity is willing to pay in that deal. My guess is that this is good for Save A Lot but I suppose it is also conceivably bad if they expand in a big way.

    A billion dollars for 200 stores? No way that makes sense unless you plan to significantly expand it.

  • Reply to

    Stuart's idea

    by shanti.ashwin Aug 8, 2014 2:27 PM
    cohsgrad cohsgrad Aug 8, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    That is true but be careful to not imply too much. I don't remember what was disclosed on the SEC investigation but what if someone threatened to break someone's legs (facetiously) or there was a small conspiracy of some kind. They would want to know what it was and then leave it open pending the criminal proceeding. Just some wild speculating on my part. What isn't wild speculation however is that contacting the U.S. Attorney's office is a bad idea.

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