I think today's action is healthy. Cleans out the shoe clerks, restores proper valuation. The stock had gotten ahead of itself. And generally, the NAZ is really taking it up the pooper.
Now HERE we have a real rocket scientist.
Write down, Super thin Margin, little cash on hand
Um, they have about 6 million in cash and 163 million in inventory which means that the already have been buying gold when prices were "weaker". They've been in the gold and jewlery business for several years. What have you been doing with your life?
Super thin Margin
Based on what? Are you aware that they started as a for-hire jeweler that made pieces for bespoke providers (customer or dealers) and have switched to an integrated company that supplies its own gold? Have a clue about what that might mean in terms of margins or overall profitabliity?
"risky, High debt implement Commercial Real Estate"
I'll wait to watch this one. But they have a $63 million credit facility lined up and they expect to pre lease.
More generally: I've watched this stock for 7 years since James Altucher was trumpeting it. I watched it get slaughtered during the RMO/Alfred LIttle heyday...and hang on. Now it sells for 10% of revenues and a $1.80 a share but it still has a-holes that want to short 10k shares (and maybe make 18,000 dollars) while facing literally unlimited liabilty if it gains the kind of recognition it is starting to.
I feel for you and I'm sorry you had put money in. I NEVER like to see an individual investor lose money especially in a once high flyer like this. Plus, it looked like a no brainer give the drop but as I wrote a few times in the past several months I think this company has bother co-specific and industry-wide problems that are far more serious than meets the eye.
I would consider getting out for a while, booking the year end loss and then watching for a few months to see if they can retool. That's not impossible in my opinion but they need a serious overhaul of all procedures and practices as others have mentioned.
Difference is, in your example, you are using liquidated cash asset (the nominal value of the bond) after 10 years. I would say that valuing the "value of the assets that create the cash flow" is inherently far trickier.
The actual DCF is about $400 million. Not sure where you are finding the other $800 million in "net asset value" to get to your final 1.238B figure.
Action is indeed amazing. But I think some caution is warranted here. The GD announcement was an alliance, not new revenue or contracts. And the stock is now up about 50% in the last week. Just sayin'.
It's a good problem to have and one that will only happen a few times in your life (this is the third time for me in 20 years). I think the key, like WP said, is what YOU are willing to live with as opposed to attempting to predict the future for CalAmp or any other company.
As I said a couple of days ago I believe this is a 30 dollar stock in the next few months but yes, if we get there too soon it could be a bumpy ride; perhaps you can take some off the table now and that will help you sleep, lock in your profits and free up capital for other pursuits.
It's a funny thing about being an investor. I think when you have the right attitude there's an ease, a flow to it. The next move almost logically suggests itself and a "double check" against a bad move appears on its own as well. When there is ridigty or tension or the wheels (figuartively speaking) seem to be griding it's time to lighten up. I did this full time for six years and there was a lot of that because I was tyring to make a certain amount of money every month and I was forcing. Now that I have another career and invest part time it's been smoother and I thinik that's what you want to aim for.
Hope that helps a little.
Great moments in internet history Part VIII--the psychotic whose emotional turmoil leads him to infantilism.
After 13 years of watching, to see this once lowly company change gears into a growth industry, pick up new clients and develop cutting edge applications is really heartening. I am blown away by the report. BLOWN AWAY. They should total better than a dollar a share over the next three quarters and with accordant revenue growth (on what is still a pretty small baseline), this is easily a $30 dollar.
I keep telling anyone (who will listen) that a company, especially a service company (which any restaurant is at its core) gets way harder to manage as it grows. It's pretty apparent to me that this has happened to BJ's. With Jerry out and the bean counters who will "grow" the restaurant to its next "level" and focus on the "concept" and "synergies" look out below.
Under 30 as I predicted; chart looks terrible. This thing is closing the gap from the ridiculous run up from 8 bucks a share a few years back. It can take a while but it happens ;).
And where are the famous "signature pizzas", the "craft beers" and "video experience"? The "world famous pizookies"? Answer: bypassed by the revolving fadsof consumerism and the Next Big Thing. Pretty soon this chain, this MBA-hatched, soulless "concept" is just another Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Chiles, shackled to high leases and no growth.
The easy money's been made and someone is exiting the building. Quickly.
And I really believe we are on the brink of a major collapse. All that is needed is a triggering event. But just watch the 5 minute chart. Total exhaustion.