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Miller Energy Resources, Inc. Message Board

colecoman1 117 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 15, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Oct production figures will be out

    by verado 7 hours ago
    colecoman1 colecoman1 5 hours ago Flag

    At this stage, there is much more to consider than just production.

    This has more to do with Alaska, Cook Inlet and the North Slope. As you know, production numbers can be decieving in that they won't include oil produced but not shipped to the refinery.

    Mill's infrastructure can hold over 100,000 barrels of crude (for themselves or for other companies, such as Hilcorp). The Alaska numbers do not tell the whole story. Neither do you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And are they hedged through this downturn in prices?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The price of oil today

    by verado Nov 17, 2014 6:26 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 18, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    Forget the posts and concentrate on FACTS

    1. The osprey platform and kustatan facility were built for $27 oil - FACT. While the extractions costs are higher than Forest knew, the Miller project has been studied as feasable at prices lower than today's.

    2. Miller is low cost compared to other companies. They are smaller and own thier own rigs, no need for excessive downtime.

    3. Miller is hedged - bigtime. They are still selling production over $95 a barrel - FACT.

    4. Miller is more than oil, they are nat gas. The North Fork has a contract in place to sell all gas produced at over $7 per mcf - FACT.

    5. Miller is about to pick up Badami for less than $5m, even at $70 that is one heck of a deal.

    6. Mill's infrastructure at Kustatan and at Badami are great future bets that the shale is the first to cut back, not conventional oil. Cook Inlet has decades of conventional oil left in it - FACT.

    Regardless of current market sentiment regarding all oil companies today, MILL still has a great future. And the timing of oil price increases may be off, but it will go back up sooner or later. Not that $100 isn't a great price, it is, but $70 is by no means a "low" price for conventional oil.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Prices keep going up like this!

    NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 4.27 +0.25 +6.29% Dec 14 13:58:47

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Petroleum News week of 11/16

    by chessmaster6752 Nov 14, 2014 4:15 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 14, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    Still a great ROI at $70, even better at $80.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Any ideas why?

    Verado, other than touting your short position and calling me "con man" (I'm not) do you have any theories as to why the volume picked up only at the end of the day?

    It's ok if you're touting a short position- if the stock goes back to .90 you know I'm buying!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    short positions in serious trouble

    by valueseeker2011 Nov 12, 2014 11:09 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 12, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    Not with MILL at this price. Risk is to the upside with MILL. MILL is not shale and could benefit short/long term. Tar sand will suffer first, then shale. Shale won't last for decades anyway.

    MILL's conventional plays, as well as the rest of AK, will last for centruries. Look at the number of completions in Prudhoe v. West Eagle. AK has decades of conventional oil, and the right to export as well. MILL has lower capital cost than many shale, and the capital costs will get lower on average in the future. If you're looking for high-yeild, MILL is one of the only conventional oilers with a HY prefferred.

    Selloff in oilers is so high that $80 Brent is now baked in. Time to buy, if you can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit deal, spell it out slowly,

    by verado Nov 8, 2014 8:35 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 11, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    More FACTS.

    The state has approved MILL's backup offer for Buccanneer. The state has approved MILL's North Fork purchase. The state has approved MILL's Anchor Point LLC purchase. The state has contingently approved MILL's Savant purchase. The state has contingently approved MILL's Badami pipeline purchase. The financial scrutiny and due diligence has been performed on this company by so many banks, BDC's, and GO's that it is practically a continuing, ongoing affair. KPMG has apparanently had thier claws on the accounting and is not letting up (that's a good thing).

    We have a small E&P that has endured slings and arrows yet continues to improve in management and production.

    RU9 isn't going to be announced just to cure a low stock price, or to make Yahoo message board posters happy. They aren't going to announce anything to make you and/or Verado shut up.

    You'll dissappear until another acquisition appears, or deep well, or whatever long-term project drags on. Then you'll cry all over again about MILL's impending doom. I've been reading it for almost 5 years. We've crossed 6 over seven times and have crossed 8 twice.

    Oil prices will go up in a few months, maybe a few years, and MILL will hit wells every so often, increasing production. A few more successes and we'll see what you think about your 3.33 sell. I bought a bit more a few days ago but paid more. I "might" sell some at $6, but when we cross 6 again we could be going to 9, etc. etc. etc. I've predicted $12 all along.

    RISK IS TO THE UPSIDE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit deal, spell it out slowly,

    by verado Nov 8, 2014 8:35 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 11, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Apache is still in siesmic phase. "Apache...was the top bidder in the May 2014 Cook Inlet areawide lease sale." - Petr. News
    "the company cited a U.S. Geological Survey estimating that nearly 1 billion barrels of oil remained in the Cook Inlet basin" - Petr. News
    "Apache believed there was as much oil still to be discovered in the basin...as has already been produced in the 55 years since the first discovery well" Petr. News
    "Production averaged of 16,288 barrels per day, or b/d, compared in the first half of 2014 compared with 13,087 b/d in the same period of 2013." - AK Journal
    "The Monopod Platform in the Inlet, operated by Hilcorp, has increased to 2,900 b/d, up from 820 b/d in the first quarter of 2013." - AK Journal
    “We’re going to drill over 20 wells this year,” Lalicker said, in addition to ramping up the recompletion of old wells." - Petr. News
    "AOGCC data for September shows Cook Inlet averaged 18,413 bpd" Petr. News
    "Cook Inlet crude oil production peaked in 1970 at more than 227,000 bpd." - Petr. News

    Those quotes a FACTS. Not opinion. You can change your opinion but you cannot chage facts. According to your previous post, you did at one time have a favorable opinion of MILL. You bought shares. You claim you have not sold all of your shares.

    You have also posted opinion that your shares are not worth the current selling price. Therefore it seems you are recommending others to sell thier stock at the current price.

    Because of the FACTS, I am not taking your advice seriously.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The buccaneer deal is dead!

    by verado Nov 8, 2014 8:00 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 8, 2014 11:39 PM Flag

    If Buccanneer deal is dead so be it. Without unitization I doubt MILL (or anyone) wants it.

    MILL offer is approved if AIX deal falls through. We'll see. MILL has more gas coming online in Northfork soon anyway. Meridian/Bucanneer/AIX relationship is well known and not a plus with certain people. But those facts are available from Google same as the partial fact dump you wrote.

    $35m buys 10mmcf per day in Buccaneer deal, but MILL could use same money for a North Fork.

    Calm down Verado. Don't fall in love with a stock- same holds true for bashing- don't fall in live with shorting a stock. Risk is to the upside here. Buy in or move on. Shorting could be a disaster at this point, with new rigs, new production, rising revenues, rising reserves, lowering cost of credit, new Houston based CEO, and perhaps JV announcement soon.

    You're running into diminishing returns and possible exposure to losses. Potentially massive losses. Make sure your boss understands the risks you are taking.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Petroleum News week of 11/9

    by chessmaster6752 Nov 7, 2014 4:37 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 8, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    There was a deal with MILL paying $44-50 million. But something changed. AIX doesn't seem to be a real company. Their website is not complete. It shows some holdings in an area of North Louisiana. Despite press reports stating AIX being based in Houston, the company lists that they are based in Dallas.

    Buccaneer had a checkered history in Alaska. They were accused of introducing non-native species into the inlet with the jackup, they paid late or didn't pay workers and businesses, they had an accident resulting in death, and it was determined they were drawing down gas reserves from native corporations land. In other words, they made enemies with everyone. The government forced them to put all income into an escrow account, and they were late in complying.

    They applied for unitization of the Kenai field, which would have forced a division order and released a percentage of the income from wells back to them, but were denied. This had the predictable effect of bankrupting the company.

    The native corporation believes AIX is simply a friendly shell company. Whether AIX comes up with the $45million to buy the assets remains to be seen. Without unitization, the income still goes to escrow.

    MILL on the other hand, has a good reputation and a good relationship with government, as evidenced in the local press and published on the web.

    Stay tuned.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oil going UP?

    by colecoman1 Oct 15, 2014 10:17 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 7, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Crude Oil (WTI) USD/bbl. 78.90 +0.99 +1.27% Dec 14 09:46:21
    Crude Oil (Brent) USD/bbl. 83.58 +0.72 +0.87% Dec 14 09:46:33

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    31,760 dumped on the open at 3.28

    by gsenthusiast Nov 7, 2014 9:32 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 7, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Manipulation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 6, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Offered a job at Sandridge. Probably got a better offer. The acting CFO is no slouch, read his resume.

    Good work if you can get it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    lifting the oil export ban

    by cook_inlet_lng Nov 5, 2014 8:58 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 5, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    "Miller is now looking for a drilling rig to develop more production wells and increase production at Badami, Hall said. The field now produces about 1,100 barrels per day, or b/d." - Alaska Journal of Commerce, September 2014

    I don't know if this means rent or purchase. Probably rent since they would not be able to drill year-round.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oil going UP?

    by colecoman1 Oct 15, 2014 10:17 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 5, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Crude Oil (WTI) USD/bbl. 78.29 +1.10 +1.43% Dec 14 12:10:20
    Crude Oil (Brent) USD/bbl. 83.43 +0.61 +0.74% Dec 14 12:09:43

  • Reply to

    lifting the oil export ban

    by cook_inlet_lng Nov 5, 2014 8:58 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 5, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Lifting of export ban has more to do with the fact that refineries take about 50 years to pay for themselves. US refineries are set up to process imported oil. Ironically, US oil would sell for higher prices overseas.

    Asian refineries are more likely to be set up for processing heavier crude, like what you find in the US.

    Lifting the export ban would have the effect of lowering American gasoline prices while increasing the value of American crude. Even Obama is looking at it.

    Verado, are you not interested in markets in general? It seems all you do is bash Miller. Like when you bash "Alaska's production costs". The costs are not relatively higher, and just got lower. BP is moving two rigs into Prudhoe. Exxon just took delivery of their rig at Point Thomson. Soon there will be 17 rigs drilling on the North Slope. Even little Miller, the company you keep bashing, is moving a rig to Badami.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MILL is hedged - thank goodness.

    by colecoman1 Oct 15, 2014 9:53 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Nov 4, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Bump. MILL is hedged virtually all production.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Petroleum News week of 11/2

    by chessmaster6752 Oct 31, 2014 2:55 PM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Oct 31, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    I agree with Chessmaster. AIX may not be interested in actualy running a company in Alaska. Thier website is not even complete. It shows them to be a producer in norther Louisiana.

    If AIX doesn't come through, MILL takes it for $35m. But the problems with Buccanneer still need to be worked out. So the delay gives them extra time.

    As far as Badami goes, it was $300,000,000 investment by BP that MILL will buy for $5.8m. That changes the economics of the field. It may be more of an MLP play, with some supporting oil production. There will be drilling there all winter, lets hope they bring in a well.

    The condensate from Exxon is scheduled to flow before May 2016. About 18 months from now. Exxon has spent $2 billion so far. Initial production will be 10,000. The Badami pipeline is designed for up to 70,000 barrels per day. So is Exxon's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Series C and D dividends declared

    by pa1702 Oct 31, 2014 9:08 AM
    colecoman1 colecoman1 Oct 31, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    We'll see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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