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Morgan Stanley Message Board

combined_ratio 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 20, 2014 10:28 AM Member since: Feb 8, 1999
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  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Oct 20, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    I've heard that Willis is looking for a new head of its UK unit after repeated failures in that role. Now we hear that the company is planning a complicated investment that would move its London wholesale operation to a majority-owned affiliate. This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Earlier this year Willis announced it would move some 3,000+ employees to low cost locations, which we know are code words for layoffs. I don't expect any good news out of this insurance broker any time soon.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Oct 14, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    When PartnerRe reports its 3Q14 financial results later this month, we'll learn now many shares its repurchased in the recently completed period and so far during October. I strongly suspect we're looking at a number in excess of 1 million shares. With a new 5-million share repurchase authorization now in place and the completion of the North Atlantic hurricane season, the company is free to aggressive buy back its stock in the final interval of 2014. I believe that PRE management will continue to repurchase its shares for the foreseeable future, which should be both highly accretive to book value per share and EPS.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Oct 13, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    It increasingly appears as though PartnerRe can achieve a year-end book value per share of $125 or more by year-end, up from our previous $120 target. If so, this makes a year-end price target for the shares of $115 or more increasingly obtainable. Moreover, quarterly EPS estimates for the company have been on a rise and are currently well above $3.00@share. It would not surprise us to observe a higher than expected earnings result for the upcoming quarterly profit announcement.

  • Morgan Stanley just released an equity research report that asserted that PartnerRe's current loss reserves are redundant by at least $1.5 billion. If accurate, this sum will be released into earnings over time and add to the company's conservatively stated book value per share. I continue to believe that these shares are undervalued and will appreciate to the $120 level by year-end.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Sep 11, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    PartnerRe announced that its board approved a new 5 million share repurchase authorization, or approximately 10% of the outstanding shares. This action follows on the heels of the completion of a similar buy-back initiative. The company continues to aggressively repurchase its shares and will probably expend in excess of $600 million in 2014 on this activity. It is my expectation that stock buy-backs will continue for the foreseeable future. This activity remains highly additive to both book value and earnings per share.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Aug 31, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Does anyone know what type of D&O limits were purchased by Tower? I suspect this will turn out to be a full limit loss. I wonder if Side A coverage was purchased? Does anyone know the status of the various class action suits that were initiated? Isn't this another factor that mitigates against ACR completing the acquisition? Do they really want to deal with all this ongoing litigation, and now they have an SEC investigation as well?

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Aug 29, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    IMO, the annual publication of PRE's loss reserve triangles will once again show the significant equity embedded in this carrier's major liability account. Moreover, the publication of this data typically results in an upward move in its stock price.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Aug 27, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    I recommend those investors interested in Central Securities to download and read the closed-end fund's mid-year (June 30, 2014) report to shareholders. It contains the latest transactions by the entity and the most recent valuation of its holdings, particularly its substantial stake in Plymouth Rock Company. The fund also disclosed its recent share repurchases as well as its holdings in cash and equivalents. We continue to find these securities attractive, selling at a substantial discount to NAV.

  • PartnerRe has been undergoing a major reorganization and rationalization of its operation over the past 18 months and will conclude this initiative by year-end. As of result of these actions, management has stated that it will take a minimum of $70 million pretax out of the expense structure of the company. By our reckoning, this amounts to about $1.00@share of potential increased EPS. It is unclear whether all of these savings will fall to the pretax line, but we believe a significant percentage will be realized in this form. Obviously, continued aggressive share repurchases will only increase the beneficial impact of these savings. We continue to have a conservative year-end price target for PartnerRe equity of $120@share.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Aug 25, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    What does ACR lose if this deal doesn't close? Will the business that AmTrust and National General wrote via their cut-thru agreements somehow disappear? So someone sues them. Who has the deep pockets to pursue litigation? Would it be a better outcome if ACR negotiated the price down to pennies a share? The only problem is that ACR would have to take on the liabilities, and who knows what they amount to. If I were the Karfunkels, I would be in no hurry to close this transaction. At a minimum, why not wait to see what happens when Tower's debt comes due? This will be a very interesting several weeks.

  • combined_ratio by combined_ratio Aug 22, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I expect that PartnerRe will purchase 3-million or more of its shares during the second half of 2014. Those buy-backs will be highly accretive to both book value per share and EPS, given the stock's low valuation and the significant equity embedded in its loss reserves and its investment portfolio. I continue to have a highly conservative $120@share price target for year-end.

  • Reply to

    Q dropped

    by the_zen_zephyr Aug 21, 2014 4:08 PM
    combined_ratio combined_ratio Aug 21, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    It is clear to me from reading TWGP's 10Q that this insurer is insolvent. Moreover, does anyone really believe that the situation isn't worse than those numbers indicate? It remains extremely difficult to understand why any rational entity would purchase this POS. In any event, why should ARC be in any hurry to close this transaction? I would delay at least until we see if Tower can meet its maturing debt obligations. Certainly the inability to do that should relieve ARC from any obligation to move forward. I agree with those board participants who say that the next few weeks should be quite interesting regarding the fate of TWGP.

MS
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