"Fools" said I, "You do not know
Silence like a cancer grows.
Hear my words that I might teach you,
Take my arms that I might reach you."
But my words like silent raindrops fell,
In the wells of silence
There are lots of positive catalysts heading into the earning report. I've listed the 4 top factors that earnings are going to be way above analyst forecast; but now with the manner that NEM holds share price levels despite gold going down in price it seems logical that a buyout/merger might hit before the earnings are even released.
Don't discount operational synergies between ABX and NEM. Perhaps $1B/annum.
Uh...did you read the last quarter 10-Q or the Newmont press release regarding earnings or the Conference Call transcript? Obviously not, else you would know that earnings beat estimates.
This sounds familiar, clearly recognition of positive factors for Newmont PPS continuing on an upward spiral isn't lost on everyone. The shorts are too late in disposing of their positions.
“The explanation for why some investors are finally going long of the miners is simple: A sharp drop in energy prices, positive foreign currency effects, major cost reduction programs and gold prices that have recovered to within 2% of year-ago levels. Against that backdrop, the gold miners should finally recover,” said Rareview Macro found Neil Azous in a note out Tuesday.
For the entire article read: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/week-gold-miners-etfs-130036819.html
I've got to admit your "Flippant" reply did give me a laugh.
Try some serious thought on the analyst estimates. Below is an extract from a recent article that addressed the Gold Miner ETF's.
“Additionally, this is a classic example of buy-hold-sell research analysts finding themselves behind the curve. The key point here is that despite the positive catalysts listed above, the analyst consensus still expects gold miner earnings to decline this year. Anyone who is now buying the Miners clearly views the events as moving faster than analysts are able to react, and while they wait for clarity before revising their earnings projections the stock prices will go up a lot,” adds Azous.
Read entire article: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/positive-fundamental-view-gold-miners-180028081.html
Trending towards a potential to double the dividend payout next declaration. Is $1300/Ounce on the horizon?
Plus, the FCF increases by $350M for every $100 increase in the price of gold.
Analysts need to re-address their mediocre estimates.
Yes, the GG write down definitely a factor, along with the Yamana $250M equity agreement (Share dilution).
Plus, another one of the Barclay's releases today on their view gold is headed to $1115 in 2015. These guys continue to spew the same story over and over. The current thesis continues to be that the Fed will raise interest rates...Barclay's has repeated this story for over 15 months, yet gold holds above $1200.
Newmont positioned to beat analyst forecast.
Positive factors that will aid the earnings calculation.
First and foremost is the upward movement in Gold per ounce price. Although NEM continues to use $1200/ounce for it's operating cost breakdown, Newmont also calculates that every +$100 movement in the selling price of gold contributes $350M in FCF. The importance of maintaining a price level above $1200/ounce is clear--not that Newmont has any direct control over the price.. Hence, the recent price upswing from $1151-$1232 since November argues well in regard to FCF.
Second, and also a major FCF factor, is the price of diesel. Diesel represents 10% of the operations budget (cost). As identified by Newmont, for every $10 per barrel of oil the impact is $40M in FCF...oil falling from $100 to $40 per barrel is a major contributor to the balance sheet.
Third, the Australian dollar. Gold is sold in US dollar terms; but uses local currency (Australian Dollar) for mining operation costs in that region. Newmont identifies that for every $.05 differential in US/AUS exchange rate the subsequent impact to FCF is $60M in US Dollars. In October the exchange rate was in the neighborhood of $1 US = $1.15 AUS, today the rate is $1.22. As the Australian dollar weakens it correlates to lower operations costs for local mining.
Fourth, perhaps this item should be higher in the list? Continued AISC reduction, last reported at $1031/ounce. Newmont management continues to look at ways to further reduce costs across the board.
To me, it appears that FCF and actual earnings for the upcoming earnings release will be above current expectations.