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Dell Computer Corporation (DELL) Message Board

come_to_grief 28 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Dec 11, 1999
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  • come_to_grief come_to_grief 23 hours ago Flag

    Good call on the part of COWEN.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by come_to_grief Oct 8, 2014 2:21 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Oct 10, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    12,749,224...shares short on 30 September settlement date.

    Hardly an increase at all. I'm surprised.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by come_to_grief Oct 8, 2014 2:21 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Oct 9, 2014 8:18 AM Flag

    12,688,146...shares short on 15 September settlement date.

    Should be a huge jump for the 30 September settlement; sometime after 4PM EST the latest short position will be made public. Lots of suckers were induced to up their short positions during this span; based on a strong US dollar. Release of the FOMC minutes took the air out of that balloon.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief come_to_grief Oct 8, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Perhaps the message really meant that all the shorts need to flea.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief by come_to_grief Oct 8, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    It'll be interesting to note short interest level for month end September. The 2nd half of the September report will be released after 4PM EST tomorrow. Would expect a significant increase in the level. Lots of suckers initiated short positions and many more likely increased levels that they already had on the books.

    Cover now or regret it.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief come_to_grief Oct 6, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    OK sure, are you suggesting that you wouldn't trade your balance sheet for his? Don't lie to the message board...don't lie to yourself.

    Foolish comment on your part...as usual.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Remember the conference call

    by rjosmo Oct 3, 2014 1:17 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Oct 3, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Not quite correct...perhaps a little research would be appropriate? Simply going down below $1200 for a few days won't curtail the dividend.

    Here is the actual policy.

    Newmont's updated gold price-linked dividend policy includes a quarterly payable dividend based on the average London P.M. Fix for the preceding quarter. The first payout level will begin between $1,200 and $1,299 per ounce, with an annual dividend of $0.10 per share or $0.025 per quarter. The second payout will be between $1,300 and $1,399 per ounce, with an annual dividend of $0.20 per share or $0.05 per quarter. For each $100 per ounce additional increase in the average realized gold price above $1,300 per ounce, the annual payout will increase at a rate of $0.20 per share or $0.05 per quarter. For example, if the average London P.M. Fix for the preceding quarter was $1,400 per ounce, the annual dividend would be $0.40 per share or $0.10 per quarter.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    ISIS 1 mile from Bagdad

    by albertdrone Sep 29, 2014 1:11 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Sep 29, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    Of course, look at the fundamentals. Great value, especially for Newmont.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Horrible Chart

    by citamar Sep 29, 2014 10:42 AM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Sep 29, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Not likely...sure the chart looks bad...but I'd rather concentrate on the fundamentals. I don't put any credence in a "chart".

    Newmont has repeatedly used a gold price of $1200 for it's own internal projections. Gold price, despite the recent downturn because of the dollar strength, is still above $1200. Moreover, gold has held the level while being attacked by the huge recent short action.

    Newmont recently settled the Indonesia ore tax issue. The ore reserves--both Gold and Copper--are rather good. Exports are flowing again and production is going to ramp back up. Newmont has guided much higher tonnage for CY2014 and CY2015/16. The costs related to Baju-Hijau remain high and need to be culled; but management is working at cutting production costs in Indonesia. I'd recommend reviewing the 23 September 2014 outlook release for 2014 thru 2016...in this NEM official release it identifies 2014 Batu-Hijau AISC of $1430-1560 and $610-680 for 2015 and then $600-680 for 2016. For CAS it's $1090-1200 in 2014 and $440-500 for both 2015-2016. The point is cost is expected to drop over 50% for 2015 and 2016 period; that is significant. In contrast, other production regions the cost is anticipated to go up; but, under all regions consolidated cost (both AISC and CAS) is forecast go down overall in 2015 and 2016 PLUS it's not just gold but copper even more so.

    Newmont not only raised production guidance for Indonesia, it also raised consolidated production expectations for 2015 and 2016 AGAIN for both gold and copper.

    Newmont recently reported the go-ahead for Suriname mining project. The capital investment is expected to be $900M to $1B. Production to start in 2016 and estimated all-in cost of $750-850 per ounce of gold for the first five years. Estimated production of 400M-500M ounces for the first five years with a total reserve of 4.2 million ounces. From a financial perspective, why would Newmont engage this production endeavor if gold prices are headed lower?

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Barrick Gold Hires Deal Advisor

    by come_to_grief Sep 16, 2014 8:29 AM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Sep 26, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Soon...how are the talks progressing?

  • Reply to

    Huge Short Squeeze Coming

    by goldoking7777 Sep 25, 2014 7:18 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Sep 26, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    SOON...ABX buyout near?

  • come_to_grief by come_to_grief Sep 16, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    Throw in the previously released message from Newmont Mining CEO that it's ready to re-engage into merger discussions with ABX...is a buyout offer from ABX forthcoming?

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Indonesia Update

    by come_to_grief Sep 2, 2014 11:37 AM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Sep 4, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    MOU signed...finally!

    NEM will need to release a new forecast on production at Batu Hijau...that is revise the number upwards.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief by come_to_grief Sep 2, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    It appears that the MOU settlement undertaken by Freeport-McMoRan is the template whereby Newmont and Indonesia have agreed in principle to a MOU between parties.

    Royalty payments and ore export tax is identical to the Freeport MOU.
    There is nothing specific about divestiture; but the Freeport agreement used a divestiture of up to 30% at fair market value.
    Additionally, for Newmont, they will submit a $25M surety bond as 'good faith' in joining the Freeport smelter build, as a junior partner in the project.
    Moreover, there is some talk about a contract extension. Using Freeport as the guideline, the Newport MOU may use the same dateline timeframe as the target--2041.

    Time is here to export the stored ore capacity and return to mine production.
    NEM should shortly revise the Batu Hijau forecast for CY 2014 and CY2015.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Release date

    by come_to_grief Aug 25, 2014 1:12 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Aug 27, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    The number of shares short actually shrank during the first half of August to a total of 14,725,764 shares.

    Perhaps the short holders are understanding the futility of betting against an upward movement in NEM share price.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Indonesia Update

    by come_to_grief Aug 26, 2014 10:05 AM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Aug 26, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Newmont Mining website has confirmed that the arbitration filing has been pulled and there is apparently negotiations going on between NEM and Indonesia to get a settled MOU completed.

    Not much specifics in the Newmont press release other than like most of us anticipated, NEM will pay some part of the price that FCX has committed towards and that NEM will indeed guarantee certain tonnage to be processed locally within Indonesia...obviously tied to the build roadmap related to the new FCX smelter.

    The MOU should go beyond those understandings and deal with ore export tax amount; royalty increase; divestiture levels to the Indonesian government, etc...

    Good news indeed.

    CTG

  • Reply to

    Indonesia Update

    by come_to_grief Aug 26, 2014 10:05 AM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Aug 26, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    The ICSID website still indicates that the case is pending and that a Tribunal not yet constituted. There is no evidence that NEM has withdrawn the arbitration filing. It's possible that an update is forthcoming to the ICSID website in the next couple of days.

    The ICSID Case Number is "Pending" #191 and is ARB 14/15.

    It will be interesting to review the outcome of the line item elements to any MOU between NEM and Indonesia and then compare the agreement to what was settled between Freeport-McMoran and the Indonesian government. I'm still of the opinion that NEM held a stronger negotiation position than what FCX had; so the terms of settlement might be ever so slightly better than what FCX negotiated.

    Here are my thoughts on the potential MOU.

    There will be an export tax imposed on unprocessed ore; most likely the same rate that applies to FCX under their MOU.
    NEM will contribute to the smelter build undertaken by FCX but will not have to build a separate smelter.
    NEM will guarantee a certain amount of tonnage each year to be processed by the smelter once operational.
    Further divestiture of operations to the Indonesian government but not to the extent of what FCX settlement concluded.
    There will be no extension of the CoW expiration date.
    Royalty payments will be increased but not to the levels of what FCX agreed to do.

    Whatever the case, it sure would be great for the P&L to get operations started again. The next CC should shed light on what the settlement means to the production forecast in the foreseeable future.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief by come_to_grief Aug 26, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    Good news this morning.

    Newmont Mining Corp has withdrawn its international arbitration filing against the Indonesian government, the industry minister said on Tuesday, in a possible sign of a breakthrough over its seven-month dispute that halted exports.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Release date

    by come_to_grief Aug 25, 2014 1:12 PM
    come_to_grief come_to_grief Aug 25, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Well, guess that I regret placing Political info into my message. Albeit, politics do play a part in the perceived price of gold.

    I prefer to only post messages that relate directly to Newmont Mining and the Gold market in general.

    CTG

  • come_to_grief by come_to_grief Aug 25, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Tomorrow is the dissemination date for the short interest for mid-month August.

    It's highly likely that the number of shares shorted has escalated during the period. Some factors for the increased level would be the propaganda that interest rates are headed higher imminently; and the hope that political settlement can be reached in the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza conflicts. For me, the Fed meetings are over, and Putin isn't ready for a truce and Israel continues to bomb Hamas...those issues that helped drive the short interest upward are now evaporating.

    The short interest had already increased for the period of 15-31 July. It went from 13,753,454 shares to 15,580,557 shares. Meanwhile average trading volume for NEM shares has declined which leads to days to cover extending to 2.69 days; that number is the largest days-to-cover in quite some time. The release tomorrow should extend the days-to-cover considerably.

    The take on all this is that despite the relatively large increase in short position the resilient share price and low trading volume are working against those engaging in speculation that NEM will head aggressively lower than the current price.

    CTG

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