Nope, I also think this downdraft is short lived. Adding new short positions now is plainly idiotic.
12,688,146...shares short on 15 September settlement date.
Should be a huge jump for the 30 September settlement; sometime after 4PM EST the latest short position will be made public. Lots of suckers were induced to up their short positions during this span; based on a strong US dollar. Release of the FOMC minutes took the air out of that balloon.
It'll be interesting to note short interest level for month end September. The 2nd half of the September report will be released after 4PM EST tomorrow. Would expect a significant increase in the level. Lots of suckers initiated short positions and many more likely increased levels that they already had on the books.
Cover now or regret it.
OK sure, are you suggesting that you wouldn't trade your balance sheet for his? Don't lie to the message board...don't lie to yourself.
Foolish comment on your part...as usual.
Not quite correct...perhaps a little research would be appropriate? Simply going down below $1200 for a few days won't curtail the dividend.
Here is the actual policy.
Newmont's updated gold price-linked dividend policy includes a quarterly payable dividend based on the average London P.M. Fix for the preceding quarter. The first payout level will begin between $1,200 and $1,299 per ounce, with an annual dividend of $0.10 per share or $0.025 per quarter. The second payout will be between $1,300 and $1,399 per ounce, with an annual dividend of $0.20 per share or $0.05 per quarter. For each $100 per ounce additional increase in the average realized gold price above $1,300 per ounce, the annual payout will increase at a rate of $0.20 per share or $0.05 per quarter. For example, if the average London P.M. Fix for the preceding quarter was $1,400 per ounce, the annual dividend would be $0.40 per share or $0.10 per quarter.
Not likely...sure the chart looks bad...but I'd rather concentrate on the fundamentals. I don't put any credence in a "chart".
Newmont has repeatedly used a gold price of $1200 for it's own internal projections. Gold price, despite the recent downturn because of the dollar strength, is still above $1200. Moreover, gold has held the level while being attacked by the huge recent short action.
Newmont recently settled the Indonesia ore tax issue. The ore reserves--both Gold and Copper--are rather good. Exports are flowing again and production is going to ramp back up. Newmont has guided much higher tonnage for CY2014 and CY2015/16. The costs related to Baju-Hijau remain high and need to be culled; but management is working at cutting production costs in Indonesia. I'd recommend reviewing the 23 September 2014 outlook release for 2014 thru 2016...in this NEM official release it identifies 2014 Batu-Hijau AISC of $1430-1560 and $610-680 for 2015 and then $600-680 for 2016. For CAS it's $1090-1200 in 2014 and $440-500 for both 2015-2016. The point is cost is expected to drop over 50% for 2015 and 2016 period; that is significant. In contrast, other production regions the cost is anticipated to go up; but, under all regions consolidated cost (both AISC and CAS) is forecast go down overall in 2015 and 2016 PLUS it's not just gold but copper even more so.
Newmont not only raised production guidance for Indonesia, it also raised consolidated production expectations for 2015 and 2016 AGAIN for both gold and copper.
Newmont recently reported the go-ahead for Suriname mining project. The capital investment is expected to be $900M to $1B. Production to start in 2016 and estimated all-in cost of $750-850 per ounce of gold for the first five years. Estimated production of 400M-500M ounces for the first five years with a total reserve of 4.2 million ounces. From a financial perspective, why would Newmont engage this production endeavor if gold prices are headed lower?
Throw in the previously released message from Newmont Mining CEO that it's ready to re-engage into merger discussions with ABX...is a buyout offer from ABX forthcoming?
NEM will need to release a new forecast on production at Batu Hijau...that is revise the number upwards.
It appears that the MOU settlement undertaken by Freeport-McMoRan is the template whereby Newmont and Indonesia have agreed in principle to a MOU between parties.
Royalty payments and ore export tax is identical to the Freeport MOU.
There is nothing specific about divestiture; but the Freeport agreement used a divestiture of up to 30% at fair market value.
Additionally, for Newmont, they will submit a $25M surety bond as 'good faith' in joining the Freeport smelter build, as a junior partner in the project.
Moreover, there is some talk about a contract extension. Using Freeport as the guideline, the Newport MOU may use the same dateline timeframe as the target--2041.
Time is here to export the stored ore capacity and return to mine production.
NEM should shortly revise the Batu Hijau forecast for CY 2014 and CY2015.
The number of shares short actually shrank during the first half of August to a total of 14,725,764 shares.
Perhaps the short holders are understanding the futility of betting against an upward movement in NEM share price.
Newmont Mining website has confirmed that the arbitration filing has been pulled and there is apparently negotiations going on between NEM and Indonesia to get a settled MOU completed.
Not much specifics in the Newmont press release other than like most of us anticipated, NEM will pay some part of the price that FCX has committed towards and that NEM will indeed guarantee certain tonnage to be processed locally within Indonesia...obviously tied to the build roadmap related to the new FCX smelter.
The MOU should go beyond those understandings and deal with ore export tax amount; royalty increase; divestiture levels to the Indonesian government, etc...
Good news indeed.