Expect June Q to be similar to March Q. Will look for insider buying before buy more myself. Otherwise, will be a buyer in Nov, Dec-during tax loss selling season.
For the most part, for all of 2015, have only been a net buyer of gold/silver stocks on gold/silver price weakness. Anything else, I've taken gains when I get them-let go of some KTCC when it got in the $12.30s. Still have some PCTI, when bought close to $7 on recent weakness.
Sorry, a little late in the response. Yes. Up until PCTI's recent missteps I thought there were 3 fundamentally cheap stocks where mgts were building good businesses: PCTI, KTCC and LTRX. KTCC is the 1st to start to perform. LTRX and PCTI may have to wait until the 2ndH of 2015-assuming the economy gets a little stronger.
Mgt has in the past, through buybacks, been a buyer below $7.50-where the stock has been since 4/14. I suspect they want to cushion the blow of the shareholder turnover from "growth" investors to value investors. For me, I'm giving it till the end of May to wait to see if any shareholder lawsuits are filed as a results in the 4/7-4/14 time delay of losing Samsung as a client.
You shot down your analysis "substance" by commenting on no insider selling 4/7-4/14. Since the Q ended the end of March, insiders cannot be active. The black out period is usually two weeks before the Q ends until a couple days or so after the results of the Q are released. So, looking for "clues" through insider activity during this time period reflects poorly on you or wishful thinking.
The best "bullish" case I can make is:
Offering up the idea that mgt was "attempting to save" Samsung as a client during that time period and only after all attempts were made, did mgt throw in the towel on retaining Samsung and thus "forced" to notify the public.
In any case, "shareholder turnover" is likely to occur over the coming weeks as:
1)Growth oriented investors sell
2)Value oriented buyers wait to buy until the stock gets lower and/or it appears the sellers exhaust themselves.
This "shareholder turnover" process started before the "news"-it may take a few more days/weeks. A more immediate catalyst would be for a 5%+ holder call for the company to put itself up for sale. Absent that, I expect the stock to go lower as a new 52-week low begets more 52 week lows.
Probably so. In recent years I have been positive w/r to PCTI mgt, but the last two acquisitions have been bad-requiring cash back from the sellers because of subsequent events. Because institutions own 75-80% of the stock, the only way the large holders can get out (profitably) is for the company to put itself up for sale. It is time for PCTI to just that as the company cannot get to $150 million annual sales level, which is the level mgt has stated that is needed in order to justify being a public company.
I won't be a buyer after 1st Q results, 2nd Q guidance and after lawsuits are announced-stock probably closer to $6 than $7.
Because Samsung notified PCTI on 4/7, but shareholders were not notified until 4/14-that delay in my view -opens the company up to shareholder lawsuits. I have not been a buyer.
I would say it is 'liquidity" looking to find a "home". Bond and CD investors are being forced out of their preferred investment choices. They have all become reluctant "bulls" in the stock market or another way of saying it-fully participating "bears".
JOLTS number out today for the month of FEB. "Hires" was 4.92 million a 6 month low. A month from now, I expect March to be lower still. Job growth has rolled over.
As far a FED speak, FED's Kocherlakota spoke today:
1)No nead to raise interest rates until 2ndH of 2016
2)Implied commentary was made w/r to QE4
"2" is similar talk that Bullard made in mid-Oct, after the S&P 500 fell about 10%-a rally to highs followed. So whom do you want to believe, Yellen/Fisher raise rates this year (NO FED PUT) or Bullard/Kocherlakota-QE4 will come if the markets or the economy rolls over.
I think Yellen/Fisher will have to come over to the B/K side as I expect jobs and the economy to continue to roll over. However, it won't be called QE4.
Wanted to continue on prior posts "theme". I have read, in recent days, that our democracy will end when Congress discovers it can "bribe" the people with public money. This country started crossing over into that "space" in the 60's with the "Great Society" programs by LBJ.
It is my view, our democracy is lost as more than 50% of the population is on the public dole in some form or another. Increasing corruption, social anarchy and financial blowup will follow. It is inevitable, I just don't see counter forces ending the US slide.
Two interesting "news" points:
1)Each Monday after BLS comes out with their monthly "jobs" report, the FED comes out with their Labor Market Conditions Index. Today it was very hard to find this number, even if GOOG. But I did find it out and it was -.3, near a 3 year low. Feb was revised down from 4 to 2. The FED's measure looks at 19 labor stats.
2)The Phily FED came out today with a statement that the BLS has made so many adjustments to their numbers that the Phily FED can't use BLS's numbers to calc their own macro-econ indicators
My takeaway, labor markets are much softer than the BLS would have us believe. Since the BO administration has politicized the IRS, the Justice Dept, the EPA and probably other government agencies, it has been my view that the BLS has been spewing out garbage data as well. They "can" because of the assumptions made w/r to seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model of business formation make it "easy" to fudge the data. This is Chicago politics at its "best". It is also the reason I grow more comfortable owning gold/silver miners as our government is lying to us often and with such audacity that "faith" in the US government will continue to decline-with it will go the $ in time.
Not to be partisan, but neither party is addressing the fact that $2 trillion of tax revenues are supporting about $100 trillion in debt and unfunded liabilities at the national level. The US cannot afford for interest rates to normalize unless inflation is much higher as well-making real interest rates more negative than they are now. The US is in deep doo doo. Give it some more time and we will be swimming in the septic tank.
True the FED may delay, but is still tightening as measured by: monetary base, balance sheet, reverse repo market. Also, in 2013 and 2014 there was FED QE money coming into the market, which is not there now (No FED put). Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings will be down in the 1st Q and 2nd Q, jobs numbers will continue to roll over as oil/gas jobs are falling as is mfging that export or faces imports. 3/1 multiplier of those lost jobs will mean more job loses in supporting industries.
I'm not turning bullish of stocks, in general, until:
1)Broad market sells off of 15% or so
2)FED reverses course and starts to "ease". It may not be called QE4, but it will be similar.
Could not resist, bought some PCTI on 4/2 at $7.64. Even if they do post below guidance 1st Q numbers, I expect to be a buyer of size around $7.00.
With the soft jobs numbers on 4/3, the DXY fell, interest rates fell-so I would expect gold/silver to rally when Asian markets start trading Sunday night. Spotted an article on 4/4 where one of the largest Indian gold importers Rajesh Exports-suppose to import about 140 tons/yr or about 15% of India's imports-is looking to buy/invest in gold mines/miners to insure their supply of gold. This "news" would suggest that Rajesh is worried about securing enough physical gold in coming years. If that isn't a "tell" or "bell" ringing to be bullish, then I don't know what it-with the exception of gold/silver going up day after day.
Why haven't gold/silver been going up? It has been my reading that futures "paper" markets are 100X greater than the physical market. So large players, that don't want gold/silver to go up, can repeatedly "hammer" prices down in the futures markets so as to overwhelm the much smaller physical markets. Who wants gold/silver prices to stay down? It has has been repeatedly speculated that JPM is accumulating vast amounts of silver. Also, China which is looking to make its currency a competitor to the $, has been accumulating gold "quietly"-it hasn't published its gold reserves since 2009-to "back" its currency with gold to make it a "reserve" currency sometime in the future.
JPM can be active in futures markets in its own accounts, China through brokers around the world can "hammer" gold as much as it wants. Sometime soon, today's Rajesh news is another data point, the world will realize that physical supplies of gold are thinning and gold as an asset class is under owned. Once gold starts to move, the shorts will get squeezed-best to buy when almost "no one" cares.
All is not lost though. I have been reading more and more about how the Republican congress is pressing to increase defense spending. They will get it if BO gets more domestic spending. Alas, fiscal policy will become stimulative to increase aggregate demand. I expect same in Europe, especially if Germany starts spending more. Since bond yields are so low, and markets are demanding more supply-because central banks have been sucking up inventory-fiscal policy spending (stimulas) programs are gong to rev up as politicians will just not be able to resist "buying votes".
Under this scenario, I can see the S & P 500 going to 2500. Don't have a theme yet, but PCTI will have its "day" again and make a run to the teens.
Gold did pull back to $1178-$1180, in recent days, and is now above $1200. Today's weak macro-econ data came from ADP (lower jobs 189,000 vs expectations of 225,000) and ISM (51.2 about a 2 year low vs expectations of 52.5). One may recall that GS has been forecasting gold to move down to $1050 because the US macro-econ data would be strong. So far GS is wrong. UBS, has in recent days gone positive on gold and gold miners, because its analyst, Julian Garran, expects the FED to be forced to continue to ease-which is my view.
On the oil front, production was down for the week end 3/27 (9.39 mbpd) vs the prior week's 9.422 mbpd-the first w/w production decline in months-falling rig count may actually be starting to bite. Rising oil prices, should be bullish for gold as it will boost CPI and PPI measures while monetary policy is still very accommodating-perhaps increasingly so as macro-econ will continue to be soft.
If the PBOC eases more, especially if it weakens its currency, then they will be exporting deflation to the US. This will force the FED to remain accommodative and perhaps ease further #$%$ strength is hurting many industries-the FED simply will have to get into the currency war.
Good buy! I have been adding some in the $7.30s. Should 1stQ results be terrible, with the stock selling below $7.00, I'll be a buyer of more.
Commented over the weekend that, Chinese economy slowed down "a bit to sharply" and is worried about disinflation. With those comments, PBOC added that they have room to act by: 1) lower interest rates and 2)"quantitative" measures
Sounds like more monetary stimulus too me. Bullish for stocks in the short run, but quit bullish for gold and silver later as the supply of paper money will be increasing much more that the supply of gold/silver. GS also stated, in recent days, that the earth's crust only has another 20 years of gold left to mine. Sometime in mid April, will come out information on China's and India's gold imports for the 1st 3 months of 2015. The number are estimated to be large-about 650 tons or 2600 tons. World production is expected to be around 2800 tons-doesn't leave much gold to buy for the rest of the world.
Gold moved up $80 from 1140 to 1220 in recent days. A 50% retracement makes buying miners, if gold pulls back to the 1180 area a good reward/risk in my view-if that pullback occurs before mid April.
Don't want to speculate on favorite oil/NG play just yet as I want to wait until 1st Q results. Because there are so many moving parts, with regard to:
2)Possible writedown of assets
3)Bank debt and/or bond covenant violations
I want to wait to see which companies will be adjusting the best. Some companies that thought they had quality assets, may not be so good. Also want to see insider buying before I buy.
W/R to CCC, followed it when it was single digits, but have not since. It is my view, that over the next 10-20 years "water" is going to be the next world currency. If my negative macro-econ/societal views come to pass-with the western world blowing up financially-due to unserviceble debt and unfunded liabilities-crushing the $, back failures etc.-one of the stores of value on my list would be:
1)Land that had harvestible wood and multiple fresh water springs that could be bottled without processing for sale and consumption.
Look's like mgt, with their STIP, is over enriching themselves for doing their job they are already paid for. Perhaps some large shareholder are upset and selling. Also, within SNDK's warnings was a weak comm sector. Couple this news with SONS's warning and the odds are increasing that scanner and other capX related products will have a soft 1st Q.
For me, I'm not a buyer until after the 1st Q results are out and the stock is closer to $7.00.
SA and IRAN now fighting in Yemen. SA and Israel will become "allies" as they both are fighting for their existence against the Persian Empire-going to be bullish for oil.
I have not bought any NA oil/gas companies, but I did turn more constructive towards them last week. Going to wait till after 1st Q results are released-that may include write downs of assets-and a selling climax before being a buyer.