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Computer Task Group Inc. Message Board

commandor58 65 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Dec 7, 2005
  • Reply to

    Some gold "news"

    by commandor58 Apr 20, 2014 9:30 PM
    commandor58 commandor58 May 28, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    So far, I have correct with gold/silver moving lower since 5/23 post-with the expectation that gold/silver will move lower for about 2 weeks. In the interim, $ is up, interest rates lower-as traders anticipate some sort of QE or other easing out of the ECB and the PBOC continues to add liquidity lowering their rates and currency.

    Even though gold/silver are going lower, the backdrop gets more bullish as monetary conditions ease and macro-econ data gets softer. One day soon, there will be a dramatic intra-day reversal-gold/silver will be down big early then reverse to go higher to finish the day. They will mark the bottom with a selling climax.

  • Reply to

    Some gold "news"

    by commandor58 Apr 20, 2014 9:30 PM
    commandor58 commandor58 May 23, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Russia has been a net seller of treasuries by about $50 billion since the end of last year. In April, Russia made its largest purchase of gold, about 30 tonnes, since 2010. That 30 tonnes is only about $1.2 billion. If Russia becomes a larger consistent buyer, they have been a consistent buyer for years, then market fundamentals will improve. Perhaps more importantly, Russia then has a direct interest of higher gold prices-just like they do with higher oil prices. Russia has the power, along with China, to make political and economic trouble with both benefiting from higher gold prices. With recent import changes in India-their demand is now expected to increase by 10-15 tonnes/mo-coupled with the narrow range on gold/silver prices in recent weeks-the odds are gold/silver will spike higher in coming weeks.

    The next two-week move(s) could be a head-fake downward as the Euro weakens vs the $ as traders anticipate the ECB easing at their 6/5 meeting. $ stronger, commodities generally lower-but that will be the head-fake. Take your pick lots of gold/silver miners are cheap:HL, SLW, AG, AUY, GFI, KGC, IAG, ABX, EGO.

  • Reply to

    PCTI itself

    by commandor58 Apr 23, 2014 11:03 AM
    commandor58 commandor58 May 23, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    With the news that PCTI will be ousted from one of the indexes, I picked some up this morning near $7.00.

  • commandor58 by commandor58 May 22, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    My read on the macro-econ data is US, and Europe economies rolling over after the US had a "warm-up" rebound. So, summer lull, stock to drift lower if there is no "event". However, the odds of a political "event" are increasing, with the US effectively having an isolationist philosophic bent under the BO admin. Power abhors a vacuum.

    But with the "lull", I have been of the view that the PBOC and ECB will ease. Also, with a lull, the FED may taper their taper. Add the BO admin. increasing government spending before the election-spending to ramp up starting in July- to 'help" Democrat candidates, then the resulting mix could be a "melt-up" of stack markets with the S&P500 crossing 2000 sometime in the 4th Q.

    QE and/or other easing programs will remain in place until inflation become a problem. Gold/silver and small cap tech will do very well.

  • Reply to

    PBOC and ECB's game of "Chicken"

    by commandor58 May 16, 2014 11:38 AM
    commandor58 commandor58 May 22, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    PBOC is "blinking" a little this week as they are injecting the most liquidity into their financial market-about $19.2 billion-since late January of this year. Even though their latest PMI was up for the month of May it was still below 50-there economy is flat with real estate related businesses weak. Later this year the PBOC will have to ease further-lower RR will be part of that policy.

    Royal Bank of India will allow more companies to import gold. Estimates are that imports will increase 10-15 tonnes/month.

    Marc Faber said that world debt outstanding is now higher by 30% vs pre-crisis levels of 2007. Implications: central banks have to keep interest rates low to service these higher debt levels. This set of circumstances reinforces my notion of the current ultimate financial dichotomy. Also resurfacing as an issue is that the major western central banks have leased out their gold and hence have little unencumbered gold in their vaults. Implications: there will be a short squeeze on gold in the future-western central banks being the ones squeezed. Prices will have to rise enough to dramatically increase supply from recycling as mine supply will be flat starting 2015. That means new all-time high prices greater than $2000/oz. Don't know when, but it will happen.

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